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Markets are bracing for the latest GDP revision, jobless claims, and PCE inflation data in the coming days. Traders are still pricing in considerable rate cuts well into next year, per the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementUS stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, ending a record-setting streak of gains as traders looked ahead to coming economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 300 points and the S&P 500 slipped from record highs, ending the day about 0.2% lower. Traders are still expecting steep rate cuts over the course of the next year.
Persons: , Scott Wren, Wells Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, US, Micron Technologies, Micron Locations: Wells Fargo, East, Ukraine
Live Updates: Inflation Likely Cooled Further in June
  + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +3 min
Overall inflation was probably 3.1 percent in June on an annual basis, down from 3.3 percent in May and the coolest reading since January, based on Bloomberg economist forecasts. Economists forecast just 0.2 percent core inflation on a monthly basis, which would match the reading for May. Fed officials have been watching for evidence that inflation is still coming down as they contemplate when to begin cutting interest rates. And Thursday’s inflation reading is poised to be markedly cooler than the 9.1 percent rate when inflation peaked at in 2022. Fed officials meet in late July, but few economists expect a move that early.
Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, that’s, , Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Fed
On a monthly basis, prices fell overall, and the core price index was up just 0.1 percent. Fed officials have been watching for signs that inflation is still coming down as they contemplate when to begin cutting interest rates. And Thursday’s inflation reading is poised to be markedly cooler than the 9.1 percent rate when inflation peaked at in 2022. Fed officials meet in late July, but few economists expect a move that early. Fed policymakers officially target 2 percent annual inflation, and they define that goal using the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation measure, which is related to Thursday’s Consumer Price Index but released later in the month.
Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, that’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Fed
The Consumer Price Index likely climbed at a moderate pace in June, which would be welcome news for Federal Reserve officials who are watching for further evidence that they have wrestled rapid inflation under control. After stripping out food and fuel prices for a sense of the underlying trend, the “core” price index is expected to have climbed 3.4 percent compared to year earlier, unchanged from the previous report. Inflation is expected to remain moderate on a monthly basis. Economists forecast just 0.2 percent core inflation on a monthly basis, which would match the reading for May. Fed officials have been watching for evidence that inflation is still coming down as they contemplate when to begin cutting interest rates.
Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Fed
Morgan Stanley hiked its price target on Nvidia to $144, implying upside of 16.5%. It also lifted its 12-month price target to $167 from $143, corresponding to 22% upside. Analyst Krisztina Katai stood by her buy rating for the retail giant but upped her price target to $77 from $71. Analyst James Schneider assigned the stock a 12-month price target of $50, which corresponds to a 21% increase from its Friday closing price. — Lisa Kailai Han 5:47 a.m.: Morgan Stanley hikes its Nvidia price target Nvidia should continue rising as its next generation of chips arrives, according to Morgan Stanley.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Alexander Blostein, Blostein, Lisa Kailai Han, Krisztina Katai, Katai, — Lisa Kailai Han, James Schneider, Schneider, Moore, Joseph Moore, Blackwell, Hopper, Nvidia's, BIRK, ramping, Jay Sole, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Nvidia, UBS, Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, Nat Gas, ICE's Energy, Nat, ICE, Deutsche Bank, Walmart Deutsche Bank, Walmart, Verizon, Birkenstock Locations: Friday's, Asia
Read previewA 64-year-old grandmother-of-11 has become one of the buzziest names in the longevity world by beating billionaires at anti-aging with a simple and inexpensive routine. The rest of her longevity routine costs little or nothing to follow, and there's good science to suggest her habits have helped keep her young and healthy. Hardison said she's been a health-conscious eater since she was a teen, watching fad diets come and go. And I cook because if I'm going to eat, I want it to be good," Hardison said. They include ingredients like:AdvertisementMagnesium, which research suggests is good for healthy bones and regulates blood pressure and blood sugar.
Persons: , Amy Hardison, Bryan Johnson, Hardison's, Hardison, she's, Ginger, isn't, I'm Organizations: Service, Business
The firm and the foundation are twin enterprises of Republican megadonor Jeff Yass, and a small group of allies. The foundation is run by Yass and other veteran Susquehanna executives, according to the documents that are current through 2022. The Susquehanna Foundation is one of two foundations that Yass and his closest friends have funded and led. The other foundation is even less well known: the Claws Foundation. Similar to Susquehanna, Claws is the charitable arm of one person: Arthur Dantchik, a co-founder of Susquehanna International Group with Yass, is the sole listed donor to Claws Foundation.
Persons: Jeff Yass, Arthur Dantchik, Dantchik, Brendan Fischer, Summer Lee, Donald Trump, Jeffrey Yass Organizations: Republican, Susquehanna Foundation, Susquehanna International Group, Susquehanna, Claws Foundation, Susquehanna International, Sterling Foundation Management, CNBC, Cato Institute, Institute for Justice, Supreme, Atlas Network, Competitive Enterprise, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Susquehanna Growth Equity Fund III, Moderate PAC, Democratic Rep, Politico, Democratic Locations: Yass, Bala Cynwyd, Pennsylvania, Susquehanna, Virginia, Dantchik, Washington, Pitchbook
Markets are closely monitoring Q4 earnings results, which began rolling out in mid-January, since they give much-needed clarity on the prior year while setting the tone for the year ahead. AdvertisementWhat to expect during the Q4 earnings seasonEarnings seasons often bring surprises, but there are also bankable bets. But we're going to be driven more by the macro, if we're excluding these mega-cap tech stocks." 3 sectors with boom-or-bust potentialWhile the strategists Business Insider spoke with didn't provide investing recommendations, several shared which sectors they're watching in Q4. Bianco believes the tech sector's earnings will rise over 20% this year.
Persons: , Matt Stucky, Stucky, David Kelly, UBS Josh Jamner, That's, Jamner, Carol Schleif, Schleif, there's, Anthony Saglimbene, David Bianco, Saglimbene, Bianco, Brad Klapmeyer, Klapmeyer, " Bianco, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, BMO's Schleif, Indrani De, De, she's, he'd, that's Organizations: Service, Business, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Asset Management, UBS, ClearBridge Investments, BMO Family Office, DWS, Macquarie Asset Management, FTSE Russell Locations: Americas
Jim Cramer says the market is ready for a pullback
  + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Tuesday said the market's ready for a pullback because many stocks, including tech companies touting artificial intelligence initiatives, have climbed too quickly without a solid basis for doing so. "While I'm not a bear, we have way too many stocks that have gone parabolic, meaning they're straight up, and they're going straight up on nothing," Cramer said. While he said he's not rooting for the downfall of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, they need to "rest up" unless new legitimate information crops up to propel them forward. According to Cramer, health-care stocks are also starting to see some reversals after the hype last week at the JPMorgan conference. Although Cramer said he likes many of these health-care companies, he said their stocks should come down before investors think about buying.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Christopher Waller Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, JPMorgan
The growth pace, which was the quickest in nearly two years, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth, instead of the 1.32 percentage points estimated last month. Higher wages contributed to the economy growing at a 1.5% rate last quarter, the fastest in a year, when measured from the income side. That suggested trade could be a drag on GDP growth this quarter after being a neutral factor in the April-June period.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Conrad DeQuadros, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Analysis, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Brean, BEA, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina
The quickest growth pace in nearly two years reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. The upward revision to growth last quarter reflected upgrades to business investment on structures, mostly warehouses and healthcare facilities. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth. Profits rose at a 0.8% rate in the second quarter.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Gregory Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, New York, EY, Charlotte , North Carolina
Consumers See Worsening Economy, Higher Inflation
  + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Tim Smart | Nov. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +4 min
Consumers continued to sour on the economic outlook in November while also growing more pessimistic about future inflation, according to the first estimate from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The index of consumer sentiment fell 5% to a reading of 60.4, down from 63.8 in October. “Ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine weighed on many consumers as well.”“Overall, lower-income consumers and younger consumers exhibited the strongest declines in sentiment,” Hsu added. Various surveys measuring the minds of consumers have found them to be worried about inflation and the economy in general. “Consumer sentiment continues to trend downward at a moderate pace as consumers attempt to juggle inflation and higher interest rates,” said Damian McIntyre, Portfolio manager and head of multi asset solutions at Federated Hermes.
Persons: , Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, Joe Biden, Damian McIntyre, Gregory Daco, ” Daco, Goldman Sachs Organizations: University of Michigan, , Federated Hermes, Federal Reserve, Index, Louis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Gaza, Ukraine, Kentucky, Ohio
Minneapolis CNN —For several months now, the US labor market has been on a cooling trajectory, and Friday’s jobs report made that even more apparent. The US economy added 150,000 jobs last month, falling below expectations but still notching a solid month of employment growth, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. October’s job growth came in below September’s stronger-than expected but downwardly revised total of 297,000 jobs. Including the estimated 150,000 jobs added last month and the downward revisions to August and September that totaled 101,000 jobs, the United States is averaging 239,000 jobs gained per month so far this year. Where the jobs were — and weren’tBecause of the timing of the striking actions and how the BLS tracks such activity, October is the first jobs report that reflects the massive strike.
Persons: , Sung Won Sohn, Nancy Vanden Houten, Jerome Powell, Gus Faucher, Dante DeAntonio, ” DeAntonio, “ It’s, ” Ger Doyle, ManpowerGroup, Amy Glaser, we’ve, “ We’re Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, of Labor Statistics, SS Economics, Loyola Marymount University, United Auto Workers, Ford, General Motors, UAW, Big, Federal Reserve, Fed, Oxford Economics, BLS, PNC Financial Services, Government, Moody’s, , CNN, Locations: Minneapolis, United States, Southern California
Oil gains ahead of Fed meeting as Middle East conflict persists
  + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices edged up in early Asian trade on Wednesday ahead of key global central bank meetings this week including the U.S. Federal Reserve, as the market also closely watches the latest developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Brent January crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.4%, to $85.38 a barrel by 0040 GMT, after falling $1.33 on Tuesday. Brent December futures settled 4 cents lower at $87.41 a barrel at the contract's expiry on Tuesday. Interest rate hikes aimed at taming inflation can slow economic growth and reduce oil demand, while rate cuts to spur spending could increase oil consumption. The Fed, which will end its meeting on Wednesday, is expected to hold rates steady, according to a poll by CME's Fedwatch tool.
Persons: Brent, Edward Moya, CME's, Goldman Sachs, Antony Blinken Organizations: Raffles, U.S . Federal Reserve, . West Texas, Treasury, Federal, Market, American Petroleum Institute, Central Bank, Bank of England, Israel Locations: Yantai, East China's Shandong province, Israel, ., Europe, East, Gaza, U.S
An aerial view shows an oil factory of Idemitsu Kosan Co. in Ichihara, east of Tokyo, Japan November 12, 2021, in this photo taken by Kyodo. Brent January crude futures rose 0.3%, or 28 cents, to $85.30 a barrel by 0330 GMT, after falling more than 1% on Tuesday. Brent December futures settled 4 cents lower at $87.41 a barrel at the contract's expiry on Tuesday. Interest rate hikes aimed at taming inflation can slow economic growth and reduce oil demand, while rate cuts to spur spending could increase oil consumption. The Fed, which will end its meeting on Wednesday, is expected to hold rates steady, according to a poll by CME's Fedwatch tool.
Persons: Brent, Edward Moya, CME's, Goldman Sachs, Antony Blinken, Mohi Narayan, Emily Chow, Jamie Freed Organizations: Kyodo, U.S . Federal Reserve, . West Texas, Treasury, Federal, Market, American Petroleum Institute, Central Bank, Bank of England, Israel, Thomson Locations: Idemitsu, Ichihara, Tokyo, Japan, DELHI, Israel, ., U.S, Europe, China, East, Gaza, New Delhi, Singapore
A measure of pay and benefits that officials at the Federal Reserve have been watching closely as they try to gauge the heat of the labor market grew at a moderate pace over the summer. The Employment Cost Index, a quarterly inflation measure from the Labor Department that tracks changes in wages and benefits, climbed 1.1 percent in the third quarter of 2023 versus the prior three months. That pace of growth does mark a deceleration from a series of rapid quarterly gains in 2022. Still, the index averaged 2.2 percent yearly gains in the decade leading up to the pandemic, underscoring that today’s pace remains unusually quick. And it is notable that wage gains continue to come in strong at a time when economists had expected them to be returning to a more normal pace.
Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department
Coca-Cola raised its full-year revenue forecast Tuesday after a stronger-than-expected third quarter. That's up from the 8% to 9% guidance Coke announced at the end of the second quarter. Coffee sales saw the strongest growth, as demand grew in the United Kingdom and China. Water sales were up 1%, while tea sales fell 1% on declining demand in Turkey and Latin America. Prices rose 9% in the most recent quarter compared with the double-digit increases Coke instituted in the previous five quarters.
Persons: Coke Organizations: Latin America, FactSet Locations: Atlanta, United Kingdom, China, America, North America, Turkey, Latin
That data indicates that the Federal Reserve is still likely to hold rates steady next week, some investors say. Inflation: US inflation climbed 3.7% in August from the prior year, marking an acceleration for the second consecutive month, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. Excluding the boost from gas station sales, retail spending added 0.2% in August from July. Traders see a roughly 97% chance that the central bank keeps rates unchanged in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The central bank has now raised its main interest rate at 10 consecutive meetings, taking it to the highest level since the launch of the euro currency in 1999.
Persons: , , Sam Millette, Price, Taylor Swift, Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, Liz Young, CNN’s Olesya, Michelle Toh ., Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Financial Network, National Federation of Independent Business, Comerica Bank, Traders, European Central Bank, Central Bank, ECB, Cornell University, Schroders, Fashion, Cornell’s Global Labor Institute Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Schroders
"It's going to be a mixed picture, with headline inflation picking due to higher gasoline prices and core inflation remaining contained," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The Fed would be encouraged by the continued moderation trend in core inflation, but it's still too high." While that would mark the second straight month of a pick up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI is forecast to have increased by 4.3%. "Under our new forecast for CPI health insurance, we continue to expect core CPI and especially core services ex.
Persons: Sam Bullard, it's, Ronnie Walker, Goldman Sachs, James Knightley, Lucia Mutikani, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, U.S . Energy Information Administration, CPI, Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, ING, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S, I'm, New York
Jason Lee | ReutersBEIJING — China's ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, has blamed U.S. tariffs and export controls for a drop in trade between the two countries. "This is a direct consequence of U.S. moves to levy Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports, abuse unilateral sanctions and further tighten up export controls," he said. China's trade partnersThe U.S. is China's largest trading partner on a single country basis. Following her meetings with Chinese government officials, the U.S. and China agreed to establish regular communication channels on commerce, export controls and protecting trade secrets. Xie claimed that average U.S. tariffs on Chinese products were 19%, while the Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods averaged 7.3%.
Persons: Jason Lee, Xie Feng, Xie, Gina Raimondo's, Raimondo, Trump, Joe Biden, Janet Yellen Organizations: Reuters, Reuters BEIJING —, Forbes, U.S, China Business Forum, European Union and Association of Southeast, . Commerce Secretary, . Commerce, The Locations: Washington, Beijing, Taiwan, South China, Reuters BEIJING, U.S, China, New York, U.S . China, United States, Nations, France, Japan, The U.S
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan may be at an inflection point in its 25-year battle with deflation as price and wage rises show signs of broadening, the government said on Tuesday, signalling its conviction the economy was nearing an end to prolonged stagnation. “Japan has seen price and wage rises broaden since the spring of 2022. Such changes suggest the economy is reaching a turning point in its 25-year battle with deflation,” the government said in its annual economic white paper. Companies this year offered their highest pay in three decades, heightening the case for a retreat from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. Since declaring Japan in a state of deflation in 2001, the government has made ending price falls among its top policy priorities.
Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Companies Locations: TOKYO, Japan, Tokyo
REUTERS/Yuya Shino Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Japan may be at an inflection point in its 25-year battle with deflation as price and wage rises show signs of broadening, the government said on Tuesday, signalling its conviction the economy was nearing an end to prolonged stagnation. "Japan has seen price and wage rises broaden since the spring of 2022. Such changes suggest the economy is reaching a turning point in its 25-year battle with deflation," the government said in its annual economic white paper. Companies this year offered their highest pay in three decades, heightening the case for a retreat from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. Since declaring Japan in a state of deflation in 2001, the government has made ending price falls among its top policy priorities.
Persons: Yuya, Leika, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Companies, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan
Washington, DC CNN —Americans became slightly less optimistic about the economy this month, following two straight months of growing confidence. Sentiment had been on an upswing throughout the summer, mostly due to slower inflation, and is well above the record lows reached this time last year. Signs of cooling inflationGas prices, which are highly visible indicators of inflation for consumers, have risen in recent weeks, which could weigh on sentiment in the future. Still, consumers face the resumption of student loan payments later this year, and that could weigh on household budgets. US consumers opened up their wallets this summer, with many flocking to the smash-hit “Barbie” movie, attending concerts by Taylor Swift or Beyoncé, or traveling abroad.
Persons: , , Joanne Hsu, Ryan Sweet, bode, Kieran Clancy, Barbie, Taylor Swift Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan, University of Michigan’s, University, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Pantheon, Consumer, Commerce Department, Federal, Atlanta Locations: Washington, June’s, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Michigan
The S&P 500 (.SPX) has gained more than 16% on a year-to-date basis, though it was last trading largely flat on Thursday. The latest CPI report "is good news. However, another CPI report is due to be released before that meeting. The CPI report is "obviously positive for the markets," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor and market strategist for Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management. The month of August has delivered on average the third-lowest return for the S&P 500 since 1945, with September ranking as the lowest, according to CFRA Research.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott, LeBas, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Refinitiv, Barry Bannister, Bannister, Lewis Krauskopf, Karen Brettell, Ira Iosebashvili, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, CPI, Cresset, Sylvest Wealth Management, Research, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Widespread artificial intelligence adoption could fuel productivity, benefit economies and even boost major currencies, according to Goldman Sachs. But the clearest impact will be on stocks, said the investment bank in a July note. "The impact is clearest in equities, which should rise on a higher forward outlook for GDP and profits," Goldman wrote. AI adoption could directly boost the level of global gross domestic product by 7% — or roughly 5% in emerging markets and 10% in developed markets, Goldman said. In a separate Aug. 3 report, Goldman identified AI as one of five themes in Asia-Pacific it's positive on.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S Locations: China, Asia, Pacific, Greater China, South Korea
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