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But neither incoming hard economic numbers nor many senior policymakers have fully bought into the recession idea just yet. But not all think a soft landing is out of the question. JP Morgan's Bruce Kasman said his "baseline" is the lagged effect of Fed tightening does eventually drag the U.S. economy into recession late next year. But he also said it was a "mistake to rule out a soft landing scenario." by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Editing by Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Morning Bid: Powell clears the decks
  + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( )   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Intended or not, investors clearly read Wednesday's keynote speech by the Federal Reserve chair as a green light for a yearend relief rally in beaten down assets. On the face of it, Fed chief Jerome Powell merely confirmed what most had already assumed - that the Fed would downshift the size of its interest rate rises to half a point next month. The upshot is that markets have dragged their implied peak Fed rate next year back below 5% and continue to price up to half a point of cuts by the end of 2023. Core PCE inflation numbers are due later and another barrage of Fed speakers to hold Powell's take up to the light.
A debate on lifting central banks' inflation targets re-surfaced this week - feeding speculation about just how much economic pain monetary policymakers are willing to inflict to drag decades-high inflation back to largely arbitrary 2% goals. Former International Monetary Fund chief economist and long-term advocate of higher inflation targets Olivier Blanchard thinks 3% could and probably should be the new 2%. That prodded central banks into extraordinary asset purchases, negative interest rates or both just to try and get inflation back up to 2%. And counter-intuitively for some he emphasised that higher inflation would not imply looser policy. So good and bad news - a potentially more balanced economy, with better wage distribution but higher nominal interest rates that may spook financial markets trying to parse the trajectory for Fed or European Central Bank interest rates years hence.
Morning Bid: Uneasy Chair
  + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( )   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. While inflation looks past its peak, labour markets remain super tight and Powell speaks before another crucial nationwide employment report on Friday. Futures market expectations for peak Fed rates next May ticked back above 5% ahead of the speech, with about 35 basis points of rate cuts from there still priced by yearend. China and Hong Kong shares extended gains on Wednesday as market participants cheered an easing of COVID-19 measures in Guangzhou city. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoLONDON, Nov 29 - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. They also cheered a relaxation of regulations on developer fundraising that eases the smouldering property sector bust. A crackdown on demonstrations happened simultaneously, with Chinese authorities making inquiries into some protesters as police flooded the city's streets. Strikingly, hawkish Dutch central banker Klaus Knot also said forecasts of recession may be overdone and fears of "overtightening" policy were a "joke". His boss European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said euro zone inflation, which is expected to ease this month but remain above 10%, has not yet peaked, encouraging speculation of another swingeing 75 basis point interest rate rise next month.
Morning Bid: China, COVID and Crude
  + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Huw Jones | )   time to read: +4 min
Rare anti-government unrest across China's cities over the weekend has unnerved world markets, weakening crude oil prices and adding fresh political risks to a fragile year-end. Wary that both the unrest and the COVID crunch compound the economic hit to China and the world, the initial market reaction on Monday was to sell Chinese stocks, the yuan and oil - with crude oil prices falling to close to $80 per barrel, their lowest since January. A U.S. regulatory clampdown on Chinese tech giants, citing national security concerns, also weighed on shares of tech firms. As U.S. markets return after the Thanksgiving weekend, attention will return to Federal Reserve tightening, the labour market and inflation picture. The German banking giant said it expected U.S. output to drop 2% over the whole year, euro zone output to decline 1% and world economic growth to slow to a recessionary 2%.
But you have to go back centuries in some cases to get anything nearly as bad as 2022 for 'safer' sovereign bonds. "2023 will be the year of the bond," claimed Chris Iggo, chair of the AXA IM Investment Institute. "Road to recession - bullish bonds and quality credit," was how SocGen entitled their view. And while stock volatility makes forecasters nervy, there's a clear attraction for long-term funds in seeking both the fixed income as well as the lift to bond funds when sub-par price discounts disappear into maturity for most high-quality names. "Long high quality bonds in the U.S. and Europe seems like an obvious strategy for 2023," said hedge fund manager Stephen Jen at Eurizon SLJ Capital.
Morning Bid: Gloomy enough?
  + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( )   time to read: +4 min
Asset managers tout a return to beaten-down bonds as a result - even if there's far less enthusiasm for equity in that environment. But the view hinges on economies slowing to a point that drags inflation back down toward 2% targets. So far at least, most incoming economic numbers are less gloomy than forecast. Likewise equivalents for the euro zone, China and the world at large - with UK surprises the most positive since April. The People's Bank of China said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 25 basis points.
REUTERS/Richard Carson/File PhotoLONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - You can sometimes buck the market - for a time at least. Even mention government or central bank intervention in financial markets to many professionals and you elicit a tirade on such futility against forces beyond control. Against that, this year was marked by three very different examples of direct financial market intervention that appear to have succeeded in their narrow and targetted goals at least - despite many doubts whether they would or even could work. And it was at least in some part due to the SPR intervention, even if that was aided by central bank tightening and slowing world demand. All three examples of market intervention had their own dynamics and drivers.
Morning Bid: Fearless?
  + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( )   time to read: +4 min
As bond markets furiously flag a looming recession, stock markets suddenly seem fearless. Wall St's so-called 'fear index' of implied equity volatility (.VIX) fell on Tuesday to its lowest level since August. Put against the deepening inversion of the U.S. 2-10 year Treasury yield curve to its most negative in 22 years, typically a harbinger of recession ahead, the apparent stock market calm is puzzling. Some analysts reckon stock market positioning is already so low and portfolios so underweight equity that demand for downside protection in the options market has waned too. Any hoping for an end to the jump in interest rate rate rises around the world were also disappointed.
Morning Bid: Wild oil ride amid China and crypto woe
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( )   time to read: +4 min
[1/2] General view of the oil refinery, part of Grupa Lotos taken over by PKN Orlen in 2022, in Gdansk, Poland August 9, 2022. Turbulence in oil, China's COVID crunch and unravelling cryptocurrencies make for uncomfortable reading for investors starting to parse what looks like a recessionary year ahead. Higher interest rates and slowing economies dominate most 2023 outlooks, not least Tuesday's latest from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Underlining the growth gloom, China's battle with COVID and its widening curbs only seemed to worsen. Pain in the crypto world continued, with many investors fearing the fallout from the collapse of exchange FTX is just beginning.
Morning Bid: Bucking the trend
  + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( )   time to read: +4 min
With an anxious look at China's worsening COVID surge, the U.S. dollar appears revitalized just as speculators turn against it for the first time this year. Peak interest rates, peak COVID, peak energy all get discussed as themes for 2023, along with recession risks, a return of bonds and a cresting of the supercharged dollar - which has already given back almost half its near 20% surge this year. With one eye on Federal Reserve meeting minutes later in the week, futures markets continue to nudge peak Fed rates next year further above the 5% level. Also anxious about the unfolding property bust, China's central bank and banking and insurance regulator said domestic banks should step up credit support for the economy. The dollar also got a lift from the widening crypto shock, with bitcoin falling back below $16,000 on Monday.
Morning Bid: Cat, mouse and 5%
  + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( )   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. The cat-and-mouse game between the Fed and financial markets has intensified around 5% peak interest rates next year as next week's Thanksgiving holiday hoves into view. In Europe, the euro , euro bond yields and bank stocks (.SX7P) climbed on Friday as the European Central Bank prepared for the start the biggest withdrawal of cash from the euro zone's banking system in its short history. The crypto world continued to lick its wounds amid unfolding revelations and reverberations surrounding the collapse of exchange FTX. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
And for financial markets it begs the question as to whether the extent of the monetary or fiscal tightening currently assumed will ever actually happen. The OBR reckons UK consumer price inflation has now peaked and will back off to a full-year rate of 7.4% next year. But assuming standing market forecasts for energy prices and BoE rates, it then sees inflation fall below zero for eight quarters from the middle of 2024. The BoE also expects headline inflation to plummet into 2024 - and its 'fan chart' of the range of possible outcomes also has an outside chance of deflation then too. Delaying spending cuts until after an election won't help much in that regard if indeed they're seen necessary at all.
Morning Bid: Bear Hunt
  + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( )   time to read: +5 min
Long-term sovereign bond yields have been falling sharply all week in advance of finance minister Jeremy Hunt's new budget, dragged down largely by U.S. disinflation hopes. UK 10- and 30-year gilt yields outperformed, however, dropping to their lowest since early September before backing up slightly on Thursday. U.S. housing starts numbers out later will give another glimpse at the state of the ailing property sector. Reverberations continued around the world from this month's latest implosion in the crypto universe and the failure of the FTX exchange. Major crypto player Genesis Global Capital suspended customer redemptions in its lending business on Wednesday, citing the FTX collapse.
LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - If financial markets bore the brunt of this year's interest rate shock, housing now stands in the firing line. With long-term U.S. fixed mortgage rates above 7% for the first time in 20 years, and more than double January rates, U.S. housing sales and starts are already feeling the heat. "We see a relatively greater risk of a meaningful rise in mortgage delinquency rates in the UK," Goldman said this month. While Australia and New Zealand have higher variable mortgage rates, British mortgage holders also have a higher vulnerability to rising joblessness. All of which bodes ill for UK house prices - although forecasts are still far from apocalyptic.
Morning Bid: Shot across the bow
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( )   time to read: +5 min
The euro lost 1.5 cents as the news from Poland unfolded but has regained all of that since. European bourses have been less quick to rebound and remain in the red, with aerospace and defence stock outperforming. "Tighter money has not yet constrained business activity enough to seriously dent inflation," Bostic wrote on the Atlanta Fed's website. U.S. attention will turn to retail sales on Wednesday as October data is due for release alongside industry readings. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Morning Bid: Detente and dollars
  + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Nupur Anand | )   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. As investors closely monitor shifting economic sands, signs of some easing of this year's tense geopolitics adds a tailwind to the yearend market bounce. The dollar's ongoing retreat, amid hopes of a downshift in U.S. interest rate rises next month that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard encouraged late Monday, also riffs off a defusing of at least some extreme political risks. JPMorgan cut its full-year 2022 China growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.1% previously and its 2023 forecast to 4% from 4.5%. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Defusing this year's single biggest shock to the world economy could catalyze a rebound in global markets many investors feel is overdue - but may also raise other uncomfortable conundrums. Murmurs about some endgame in the 9-month-old Russian invasion of Ukraine - suggestions of anything from 'talks about talks' to some negotiated ceasefire - have swirled in media over the past week. All were watched as intently by global investors as much as politicians or military strategists. Western sanctions slapped on Moscow seeded an energy and food price explosion that compounded and elongated the post-pandemic inflation spike around the world. US Geopolitical RiskUS inflation, Fed rates and marketsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
Morning Bid: Disinflation stations
  + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( )   time to read: +4 min
A year ago, the prospect of a 7.7% annual inflation rate 12 months on would have been shocking. As world markets everywhere rose in sympathy, those Wall St gains appear to be holding at least on Friday. The swoon in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar was probably even more significant, with two-year yields recording their biggest one-day drop since 2008 and the dollar its deepest fall since 2015. Although Bitcoin managed to bounce with all world markets, it's struggled to keep a foothold back above $17,000 on Friday and is still nursed losses totalling 17% this month alone. University of Michigan November sentiment and inflation expectationsUS inflation, Fed rates and marketsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Angus MacSwan <a href="" target="_blank"></a>.
Take Five: A UK budget and trouble in crypto land
  + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( )   time to read: +5 min
LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The long-awaited UK fiscal plan is (almost) here and after the ructions unleashed by September's mini-budget, markets are paying close attention. UK markets have recouped most of the maxi-losses from the mini-budget, but the outlook is grim. Reuters Graphics2/ CRYPTO CHAOSThe crypto world has been thrown into fresh chaos by a meltdown at FTX. Big banks too are starting to pare back staffing levels. September data showed a measure of underlying retail sales rising thanks to strong wage gains and savings, even as the broader number came in flat.
Morning Bid: Consumer inflation, crypto deflation
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( )   time to read: +5 min
Annual consumer price rises are expected to have eased back a touch last month to 8.0%, the lowest since February, with core inflation rates ticking lower to 6.5%. Falling used car prices, one aggravator of inflation indices over the past year, will be watched closely - as will the relative calm in oil prices. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it's "entirely premature" to discuss any pivot away from the Fed's current policy course. Broader markets were steady to negative around the world, mostly in a holding pattern ahead of the inflation report. The United States and China also laid out markers this week ahead of an expected meeting between their presidents at the summit.
Morning Bid: Congress unswept, crypto a mess
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( )   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Incumbent Democrats enjoyed a stronger-than-expected showing, with a chance of retaining the Senate, limiting expected losses in the House of Representatives and taking important governors' races. Regardless of the poll results, problems in the crypto world deepened amid fears of widespread contagion and selling following the near collapse of a major exchange on Tuesday. Perhaps partly related to the crypto shakeout, shares in Tesla (TSLA.O) dropped as much as 5% on Tuesday after filings showed owner Elon Musk sold almost $4 billion Tesla shares before his Twitter takeover. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
"The latest round of China reopening hopes have helped drive us higher here again," he told clients. Any change to that scenario may be a positive impulse for cyclical stocks, it said, but it adds to the inflation headache for central banks. "The somewhat negative implication of stronger China growth is that it would likely add to global inflationary pressure. "We suspect Chinese re-opening (will) imply upside risks to commodity prices and global rates." But even with a G20 summit due next week, global cooperation has been in short supply in fractious 2022.
Morning Bid: Midterms vigil and new crypto wobble
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( )   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Tuesday's U.S. mid-term elections held world markets in thrall and investors now assume policy gridlock will emerge as the winner. With a critical U.S. inflation reading due on Thursday, there was some attention on San Francisco Fed research showing credit across the economy is tighter than the Fed's policy rate suggests and financial conditions by September were more reflective of a 5.25% policy rate than the current 3.75%-4%. FTX token , the native token of crypto exchange FTX, plunged 20% amid a range of reports and speculation that dragged the whole crypto complex lower and saw drop 5%. FTX has come under pressure after the head of rival exchange Binance said on Sunday his firm would liquidate its holdings of the FTX token due to unspecified "recent revelations".
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