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Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading around 4.211% at 6:29 a.m. The 2-year Treasury note yield was down 1 basis point at 4.679%. U.S. Treasury yields fell again on Friday as data released this week pointed to easing inflation. Correction: A previous version misstated the magnitude of a decline in the 10-year Treasury note yield.
Persons: Henry Allen, — Jeff Cox Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Rabobank, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal, US, University of Michigan
The next rate decision from the Federal Reserve coupled with May inflation data, both on Wednesday, will play key roles in how stocks perform next week — quite probably lending added volatility to an already jittery market. The Fed's rate decision All eyes are on the Fed next week and its rate decision that's set to come down at 2 p.m. Wednesday. But investors have tempered expectations since then amid a spate of stubborn inflation data. That makes May's consumer price index report due out before the bell Wednesday another key focal point for investors. Economists polled by Dow Jones are bracing for the consumer price index to rise 3.4% year over year and 0.1% on a monthly basis.
Persons: nonfarm, Kathryn Kaminski, Scott Wren, they've, it's, Tony Roth, Envestnet's Dana D'Auria, D'Auria, Dow Jones, Wells, Wren, John Belton, Apple, Jerome Powell, John Wiley Friday Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, GameStop, Dow, AlphaSimplex Group, Fed, Federal Open Market, European Central Bank, European Union, Wells Fargo Investment, Wilmington Trust's, CPI, Apple's Worldwide, Broadcom, Dave, Treasury, Signet Jewelers, University of Michigan Locations: Wells Fargo, Cupertino , California
The U.S. economy has been an enigma over the past few years. The job market is booming, and consumers are still spending, which is usually a sign of optimism. But if you ask Americans, many will tell you that they feel bad about the economy and are unhappy about President Biden’s economic record. And while a measure of sentiment produced by the Conference Board improved in May, the survey showed that expectations remained shaky. More than half of registered voters in six battleground states rated the economy as “poor” in a recent poll by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College.
Persons: Biden’s Organizations: University of Michigan, Conference Board, The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Siena College, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., May 1, 2024. Federal Reserve officials grew more concerned at their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions. Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension from policymakers about when it would be time to ease. The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024. The Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, and all of the indicators showed price increases running well ahead of that mark.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, FOMC, Stocks Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, University of Michigan, New York Fed Locations: Washington , U.S
First-class travel has exhibited special strength, though management noted that can be tied in part to a resurgence of business trips. People taking these loans are more likely to be lower-income with no more than a high school diploma, Lanier said. Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFrozen food maker Tyson Foods has seen consumers shifting more to eating at home than the quick-service restaurants it supplies. It's also important to remember that lower-income Americans were feeling financial pressures before the pandemic, said Tyler Schipper, an associate professor of economics at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota. Airbnb touted interest in travel to events like the Paris Olympics and the European Cup in Germany this summer.
Persons: there's, It's, Christophe Le Caillec, underscoring, Blair Lanier, Lanier, McDonald's, Tyson, Daniel Acker, Tyson Foods, Stanley Black, Decker, Jane Fraser, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Fraser, Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler, Tyler Schipper, Thomas, Schipper, Eric Thayer, We've, Cliff Pemble Organizations: TSN, American Express, Federal Reserve, CNBC, People, University of Michigan, San Francisco Federal Reserve, U.S, PepsiCo, Bloomberg, Getty, Tyson, Management, Adobe Analytics, Furniture, Citigroup, University of St, Airlines, Delta Air Lines, JetBlue Airways, Caribbean . Booking Holdings, Paris Olympics, European, Ticketmaster, Cedar Fair, Flags, Wayfair, Garmin Locations: America, U.S, Minnesota, New York, Germany, Valencia , California
In a country roiled by recession worries, those at the top of New York City — for better or worse — couldn't give a single gilded shit. For New York City, a brush with death called for a time of decadence. "New York City's restaurants and bars are experiencing an uneven pandemic recovery nearly four years after COVID-19 struck our city," Andrew Rigie, the executive director of the New York City Hospitality Alliance, said. AdvertisementIf a pandemic can't defeat New York City, a little inflation certainly isn't going to do it. And what that looks like is the affluent in New York City eating caviar, and poorer Americans eating cereal.
Persons: Steve Jobs, it's, Jennifer Saesue, Saesue, Fish Cheeks, Z, bistros, James Murphy, us Carbone, Casas — Cruz, Cipriani, Jean, Georges Vongerichten, Bongo, Andrew Rigie, Corey Mintz, we're, WK Kellogg, Gary Pilnick, Gary Pilnick's Organizations: Grand Prospect Hall, New, New York City, Apple, Mastercard, Chefs, Casas, Soho House, Bangkok Supper, Village, IBA, Hospitality Alliance, Nationwide, National Restaurant Association, Nasdaq, The University of Michigan Consumer, UBS, New York Locations: New York City, New York, Rome, Xinjiang, New, Manhattan, Coqodaq, Las Vegas, York, Bangkok, Hell, TouchBistro, Brooklyn, The Bronx
Ford and Costco are approaching good levels to pick up additional shares, according to Jim Cramer. "Costco shares have given back some recent gains but business is strong," said Jeff Marks, the Club's director of portfolio analysis. Ford fundamentals Shares of Club name Ford rose 2.8% to $13.65 each Wednesday after vehicle sales in the first quarter grew 6.8%. "These numbers do not show the profitability of Ford," Jim said Wednesday, suggesting investors should value the company at higher levels. Ford shares need to catch up to crosstown rival General Motors , he argued.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jeff Marks, Jim, Gordon Haskett, I'm, Craig Jelinek, Rich Galanti, Ron Vachris, Gary Millerchip, Jim Cramer's, Charly Triballeau Organizations: Ford, Costco, University of Michigan, Motors, GM, Wall, CNBC, AFP, Getty Locations: Inwood , New York
Now, a group of them has created an interesting model that suggests much of people's dissatisfaction with the economy comes down to interest rates. In fact, the impact of rising interest rates isn't directly accounted for anywhere in the official CPI report — even though they've also contributed to surging car payments and made credit card debt much more costly. That's why the economists developed their own inflation measure, and they think it provided a more accurate prediction of economic sentiment. Cramer said additional evidence for the impact of interest rates on consumer sentiment has come in recent months. Between November and January, the Michigan consumer sentiment index saw its biggest two-month increase since 1991 — just as mortgage rates fell from their recent peak.
Persons: , Judd Cramer, Larry Summers, they've, hasn't, Harvard's Cramer, Cramer, pocketbooks, it's, Joe Biden's Organizations: Service, Business, National Bureau of Economic Research, Harvard University, International Monetary Fund, of Labor Statistics, University of, Harvard, BLS, Federal, CPI, Federal Reserve Locations: Michigan
Optimism about the economy spiked among US CEOs to start the yearBusiness Roundtable's quarterly CEO sentiment report jumped by 11 points in the first quarter. The report also showed CEOs expect hiring, capital investment, and sales to all increase in the coming six months. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment report showed Americans' mood improving to start the year, climbing to its highest mark since July 2021. AdvertisementA special question in the latest survey from the business group in this quarter's survey showed that CEOs are feeling downbeat about government policy and regulation. We urge policymakers to recommit themselves to promoting economic growth, creating more American jobs and increasing economic mobility," Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten said.
Persons: , Chuck Robbins, Joshua Bolten Organizations: Service, Business, Cisco, IMF, University of Michigan Locations: U.S
The media has been more negative about the economy than the underlying data would suggest, a new study found. The tone of economy stories since 2018 doesn't match variables such as GDP, inflation, and unemployment. This may have fueled a disconnect between how the economy performs and how people think it's performing. Meanwhile, a December Bankrate study found that 59% of US adults feel the economy is in a recession. Still, many Americans feel better about their local economy than the national economy.
Persons: , us, Brookings, Will Stancil, Stancil Organizations: Service, Brookings, San, San Francisco Federal Reserve's, University of Michigan Consumer, University of Minnesota Locations: San Francisco Federal
US stocks climbed on Wednesday as Wall Street headed into the Thanksgiving holiday break. Oil prices and weekly jobless claims dropped, and shares of Nvidia after it reported earnings. Bond yields edged up after a consumer survey showed higher inflation expectations. AdvertisementUS stocks climbed on Wednesday as Wall Street eyed the Thanksgiving holiday break amid fresh economic and earnings reports. Bond yields ticked slightly higher after declining earlier in the day as the data could put more pressure on the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.
Persons: Organizations: Nvidia, Service, University of Michigan, Fed
A woman passes by The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 13, 2023. The relative stability of New York Fed expectations data contrasts with that seen in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. It found in November a rise in year-ahead expected inflation to 4.4% from 4.2% in October, with five-year expected inflation up to 3.2%, from October’s 3%. Over the last year and a half the Fed has aggressively raised rates in a bid to cool high inflation. But it kept alive the prospect of more action should inflation not fall further on the path back to 2%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, there’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, , Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, Consumer, New, New York Fed, University of Michigan Consumer, University of Michigan, Federal, Committee, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, September’s, New York, York, October’s
Consumers See Worsening Economy, Higher Inflation
  + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Tim Smart | Nov. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +4 min
Consumers continued to sour on the economic outlook in November while also growing more pessimistic about future inflation, according to the first estimate from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The index of consumer sentiment fell 5% to a reading of 60.4, down from 63.8 in October. “Ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine weighed on many consumers as well.”“Overall, lower-income consumers and younger consumers exhibited the strongest declines in sentiment,” Hsu added. Various surveys measuring the minds of consumers have found them to be worried about inflation and the economy in general. “Consumer sentiment continues to trend downward at a moderate pace as consumers attempt to juggle inflation and higher interest rates,” said Damian McIntyre, Portfolio manager and head of multi asset solutions at Federated Hermes.
Persons: , Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, Joe Biden, Damian McIntyre, Gregory Daco, ” Daco, Goldman Sachs Organizations: University of Michigan, , Federated Hermes, Federal Reserve, Index, Louis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Gaza, Ukraine, Kentucky, Ohio
He said he'll be paying close attention to several quarterly earnings reports, especially from oil and gas companies. "Now, we will not be oversold next week like we were when we came in on Monday, so I don't expect the kind of strength we got this week," Cramer said. "So, if you have some positions you don't like, it's time to [sell, sell, sell!]." On Monday, Cramer said he'll be waiting to hear earnings results from Coterra and Diamondback Energy , both oil and gas companies he likes. Disney reports after close, and Cramer said it's important the company indicates it has strategic partners with whom it can conduct business.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, he'll, Cramer, Tuesday's, Warren Buffett, David Zaslov, he's, Fisher, Danaher Organizations: Diamondback Energy, Emerson Electric, Warner Bros Discovery, Kellogg, Disney, Michigan Consumer, Federal Locations: Devon, Occidental, Kellanova, Michigan
Morning Bid: Amazon and goldilocks ride to the rescue
  + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Unlike the reaction to similarly decent results from some of its Big Tech peers this week, shares in the online retail giant Amazon climbed 5% after hours. And both Nasdaq and S&P500 futures were set to bounce into the weekend later after the cash markets closed at their lowest since May. With nominal U.S. growth running at close to 8%, depending on which inflation gauge you use, the heat is impressive. And even the racy headline GDP growth rate was below many assumptions of a 5%-plus print. That bond relief has perhaps flattered the overnight stocks bounce - although on aggregate the earnings season is pretty decent too.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, megacaps, Wang Yi, crumb, Sanofi, TRowe Price, Stanley Black, Decker, CBRE, Christine Lagarde, Jane Merriman Organizations: Chevron Corp, Hess Corp, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Amazon, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Big, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Apple, of Japan, European Central Bank, Britain's NatWest, Financial, Authority, University of Michigan, Colgate, Palmolive, Xcel Energy, Charter Communications, Phillips, Central Bank, European Union Summit, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, China, Syria, Europe, Dallas, Abbvie, LyondellBasell, Brussels
The usual suspects were to blame — rising bond yields, geopolitical tensions, and oil prices — and will hold the keys to the market this coming week. Earnings are one of the three major themes on the marquee next week, with 10 Club companies reporting. Here are the companies: Danaher (DHR), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), Veralto (VLTO), Honeywell (HON), Linde (LIN), Amazon (AMZN), Ford (F) and Stanley Black & Decker (SWK). As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Jim Cramer, Jim, Morgan Stanley, Stanley Black, Decker, Danaher, Veralto, it's, Mark Zuckerberg, We're, Vimal Kapur, Linde, Jim Farley, Ford, FactSet, Powell, WTI, Baker Hughes, Edwards Lifesciences, Northrop, CARR, Davidson, Dr Pepper, Phillips, Jim Cramer's, Michael M Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Economic, of New, Treasury, West Texas, Procter, Gamble, 10, Microsoft, Honeywell, Linde, LIN, Health Care, Technology, Communications Services, Google, Meta, Ford, Amazon, United Auto Workers, Atlanta, Wall Street, Hamas, Brent, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Logitech, Verizon, General Electric, GE, RTX Corporation, Halliburton, HAL, General Motors, Dow Chemical, DOW, Xerox, Texas Instruments, F5 Networks, WM, Boeing, Fisher, Mobile, Hilton, General Dynamics, Norfolk Southern, Otis Worldwide, IBM, KLA, O'Reilly Automotive, Mattel, Whirlpool, Gross, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Hershey Company, United Parcel Service, Southwest Airlines, Altria, Northrop Grumman, Valero Energy Corp, Mastercard, Merck, Co, Myers Squibb, Newmont, Tractor Supply Company, Comcast, Seagate Technology, Boston, Hertz, Carrier, Hasbro, Harley, Intel, Grill, United States Steel, Boston Beer Company, Texas, University of Michigan, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Charter Communications, Colgate, Palmolive, Newell Brands, Sanofi, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty Locations: of New York, U.S, Industrials, OpenAI, America, Venezuela, Cleveland, Norfolk, ORLY, Bristol, Brunswick, Oshkosh, New York City
"You see all these high-level headline numbers, and those numbers don't jibe with your economic reality," said Elizabeth Crofoot, senior economist at labor analytics firm Lightcast. Higher prices have been one problem. Are the jobs numbers really that good? Beyond the housing costs, there's some evidence that the jobs numbers may not be all they're cracked up to be, either. After all, more than a quarter of the job creation for September came from lower-wage occupations in the leisure and hospitality industry.
Persons: Frederic J, Brown, Elizabeth Crofoot, nonfarm, Joe Biden's, Crofoot, millennials, Jessica Lautz Organizations: Shell, Afp, Getty, Labor Department, Reuters, Consumer, University of Michigan, Consumers, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Federal Reserve Locations: Alhambra , California, U.S
Excluding volatile food and energy components, the core PCE price index rose 0.1% in August month-on-month, compared with estimates of 0.2% advance. Consumer discretionary led gains among the major S&P 500 sectors, rising 0.9%. But the sector is set to emerge as the only major S&P 500 sector to notch monthly gains. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are poised for their worst monthly showing of the year amid uncertainty around interest rates. The S&P index recorded one new 52-week high and five new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 25 new highs and 109 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, , David Russell, “ It’s Organizations: Reuters, Nasdaq, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Commerce Department, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, University of Michigan Consumer, Energy, Dow Jones, Dow, Democratic, Traders, JPMorgan Hedged Equity, Nike, Dick’s, Goods, NYSE Locations: New York City, U.S
FILE PHOTO:Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Excluding volatile food and energy components, the core PCE price index rose 0.1% in August month-on-month, compared with estimates of 0.2% advance. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are poised for their worst monthly showing of the year amid uncertainty around interest rates. Riding the current of higher crude prices, energy is set to emerge as the only major S&P 500 sector to notch monthly gains. The S&P index recorded no new 52-week high and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 21 new highs and 60 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, , Kim Forrest, Organizations: Reuters, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Commerce Department, Bokeh Capital Partners, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, University of Michigan Consumer, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Energy, Dow, Democratic, Traders, JPMorgan Hedged Equity, Nike, Dick’s, Goods, NYSE Locations: New York City, U.S, Riding
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq reversed their weekly advances, while the blue-chip Dow ended the week nominally higher. European stocks closed higher, extending a rally sparked by the European Bank signaling an end to its rate-hiking cycle, and logging a weekly gain. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.23% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.63%. Emerging market stocks rose 0.33%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed 0.58% higher, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 1.10%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow, TW, Chuck Carlson, Robert Pavlik, Sterling, Brent, Stephen Culp, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Nick Zieminski, Diane Craft, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Nasdaq, Semiconductor, SOX, Reuters, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Horizon Investment, Financial, Dakota Wealth, Dow Jones, Bank, Japan's Nikkei, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Philadelphia, Hammond , Indiana, Fairfield , Connecticut, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London, Tokyo
Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Edge Up; Arm Rallies Premarket
  + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Shares of chip designer Arm continued to rise in offhours trading , last up 7% after jumping 25% in its stock-market debut Thursday. Stock futures edged up as Chinese data pointed to stronger-than-expected economic activity and investors awaited U.S. consumer-sentiment data. The Chinese central bank cut a short-term lending rate, in another move to support the country’s recovery. Contracts linked to the S&P 500 and the Dow rose crept higher, while Nasdaq-100 futures were flat. German and Italian 10-year yields rose—in a reversal of Thursday's reaction to the European Central Bank's interest-rate hike, according to Joost van Leenders, investment strategist at Van Lanschot Kempen.
Persons: Seng, Oil, Joost van Leenders, Van Lanschot Organizations: Nasdaq, Nikkei, Brent, Treasury Locations: China, U.S, Europe, Michigan
Gauging the 'real' rate Chair Jerome Powell , following the July meeting, said his definition of real rates is the fed funds rate minus "near-term inflation expectations." With the fed funds rate running at 5.33% and the Michigan survey indicating one-year inflation expectations at 3.3%, that puts the real rate around 2%. Using the 10-year Treasury yield against the inflation rate, the real rate currently sits around 1.6% . The evidence, though, that higher real rates are holding back activity is mixed. Its focus on real rates could mean more hawkish policy, particularly if inflation expectations start rising again.
Persons: Nicholas Colas, Jerome Powell, Powell, Colas Organizations: DataTrek Research, University of Michigan, Fed, Primary Dealers Locations: Michigan
The Conference Board's consumer confidence gauge just hit its highest level in two years. The Conference BoardAmericans have rosier views of the labor market, the data showed, and more people reported feeling "good" about family finances while fewer reported feeling "bad." "[B]oth indicators are on an upswing as consumers take positive signals from the resilient labor market and receding inflation in recent months," the Barclays analysts wrote. The improving economic outlook reflects easing inflation and the ongoing resilience of the labor market, Peterson said. "This likely reveals consumers' belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable."
Persons: Dana Peterson, Peterson Organizations: Service, Privacy, Conference, Conference Board, Barclays, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
What’s ahead this week for Wall Street and the economy
  + stars: | 2023-07-23 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
Case Shiller house price index for May and consumer confidence for July from the Conference Board. Earnings reports from AT&T, Boeing, Meta Platforms, Mattel, Stellantis and Chipotle Mexican Grill. Earnings reports from Coca-Cola, Mondelez, Honeywell, Keurig Dr Pepper, Royal Caribbean, Anheuser-Busch Inbev, Southwest Airlines and Hershey. Friday: Personal Consumption Expenditures price index for June, Employment Cost Index for the second quarter and University of Michigan consumer sentiment for July. Earnings reports from Procter & Gamble, Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
Persons: Jerome Powell, David Smith, Powell, Christopher Waller, , Dustin Thackeray, Tesla, Chris Isidore, , Case, Dr Pepper Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Fed, Traders, Rockland Trust, Big Tech, Microsoft, Meta, Crewe Advisors, Nasdaq, Netflix, Safety, Health Administration, doesn’t, Biden Administration, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Ryanair, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, General Motors, Daniels, Midland, Verizon, PacWest, Boeing, Mattel, Honeywell, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Southwest Airlines, Hershey, University of Michigan, Procter & Gamble, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: Rockland, American, United States, PacWest Bank, Royal Caribbean
To this point in his presidency, it has been fairly easy to attribute his low ratings to economic conditions. But if inflation has been what’s holding Mr. Biden back, it’s hard to say it should hold him back for too much longer. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index surged 13 percent in July, reaching the highest level since September 2021 — the first full month Mr. Biden’s approval ratings were beneath 50 percent. There’s another factor that ought to help Mr. Biden’s approval rating: the onset of a new phase of the Republican primary campaign, including debates. Some of the Democratic-leaning voters who currently disapprove of Mr. Biden might begin to look at the Biden presidency in a different light.
Persons: it’s, Mr, Biden, Organizations: University of Michigan, Republican, Democratic, Biden Locations: Britain, U.S, Weimar Germany
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