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☆ Bargain hunters dig in to 'cheap' European banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Just before earnings season kicks off, European bank shares are sporting a dividend yield of almost 8%, making them cheaper on this basis than during the 2008 global financial crisis. European banks, which struggled during 2014 to 2022 as the ECB kept rates below zero, have had a major boost from hiking their loan costs in line with central bank rates. Analyst forecasts collated by European asset manager Amundi show European banks are expected to grow adjusted earnings per share by 25% this year, followed by a 6% gain in 2024. Generali's Morganti said he has moved his position on European banks from negative to neutral and was likely to add more. He did not forecast quick gains for European banks ahead, however.

Persons: Guy de Blonay, Sebastiano Pirro, Roger Lee, Amundi, LSEG, Michele Morganti, Italy's Unicredit, Banks, Pirro, Generali's Morganti, Naomi Rovnick, Joice Alves, Dhara Ranasinghe, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Reuters Graphics Banks, Jupiter Asset Management, Algebris Investments, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Bank, Generali Investments, Monetary Fund, Thomson

As investors bet on a milder inflation outlook, the MSCI World Equity index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose to its highest so far this year. BOND YIELD BOUNCEU.S. government bond yields bounced back slightly on Friday after sharp declines earlier in the week. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 10.6 bps at 4.717%. "Getting the 3% (inflation reading) is one thing, getting back to 2% is going to be a much harder task," Villamin said. LOWER DOLLAR HOLDSThe dollar hovered near a 15-month low on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly decline since November after softening U.S. inflation data.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Germany's DAX, Michele Morganti, Morganti, Norman Villamin, We're, Villamin, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Elizabeth Howcroft, Jan Harvey, Nick Macfie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Wednesday U.S, JPMorgan Chase, UnitedHealth, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Generali Investments, Treasury, Brent, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Rome, Libya, Nigeria, Boston, London

Dan Izzo, founder of investment management company Blackbird Capital, said that though banks have been seen as a bellwether for U.S. earnings, markets today were different. Stock futures based on the S&P , Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up slightly around 0.1%. Upbeat earnings news from banks and large corporations may lessen the odds of rate cuts later this year, he added. At least eight top Fed officials are speaking this week, including three governors, and could generate plenty of headlines to move the dial further. EARNINGS KEYOther big U.S. names reporting earnings this week include Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N), Netflix (NFLX.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O).

[1/2] Men walk past an electric board displaying Nikkei and other countries' indexes outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan January 16, 2023. After $14 trillion was wiped off world shares in 2022, $4 trillion has been added back this month. "Markets are in this Goldilocks-scenario of OK growth, slowing inflation and softer monetary policy," said Richard Dias, founder of London-based investment consultancy Acorn Macro. Major central banks have added almost 3,000 basis points to global borrowing costs in this tightening cycle to date. "We've had a monumental rally in government bonds based on expectations we've reached the peak in interest rates," he said.

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