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Despite hitting an 18-month low of 4.70% in April, analysts do not expect India's inflation to fall to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 4% medium-term target in a sustainable manner for some time. India has raised rates by 250 basis points (bps) since May 2022, but surprised analysts in April by keeping them unchanged. India's hold on rates contrasts with recent central bank actions elsewhere. "Our goal is to achieve the inflation target of 4% and keeping inflation within the comfort band of 2-6% is not enough," Das said. Das said that the central bank would remain "nimble" with its liquidity operations amid spikes in overnight rates despite surplus liquidity in the banking system.
Persons: Shaktikanta Das, OIS, Das, Michael Patra, Suvodeep Rakshit, Gaura Sen Gupta, Swati Bhat, Sudipto Ganguly, Ira Dugal, Krishna N, Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of India's, MPC, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, IDFC, Thomson Locations: Delhi, India, Anushree, MUMBAI
MUMBAI, April 20 (Reuters) - India's current rate tightening cycle may not be over as more hikes could be warranted to align inflation towards the central bank's medium term target of 4%, minutes of this month's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting showed on Thursday. "It is clear that the war against inflation has not yet been won, and it would be premature to declare an end to this tightening cycle," MPC member Jayant Varma wrote. Most members appeared more concerned about inflation than in their commentary after the previous policy meeting in February when the bank raised rates by 25 bps. The decision by OPEC+ to cut crude output and the possibility of weak monsoon rains could both push up inflation in India and necessitate a monetary policy response, Varma said. In the current situation of high inflation, monetary policy does not have the luxury of responding to these growth headwinds."
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