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☆ What options traders mean when they say they are 'buying volatility'
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Institutional options traders frequently refer to "buying" or "selling" volatility, but what does this mean? These allow investors to trade future realized volatility against current implied volatility. A buyer of a variance swap pays the "implied volatility" - consider this to be the market's current expectation for future volatility over some predetermined period, in return for receiving the "realized volatility". A variance swap buyer will profit if realized volatility exceeds implied volatility, and a seller will profit if implied volatility exceeds realized. The first is that a VIX future is not as reactive to changes in the VIX Index as one might expect.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, I'm, I've Organizations: Snowflake Inc, Cloud Locations: Snowflake, The Bozeman , Montana, San Francisco

☆ Investing alternatives to chasing Nvidia's stock using options after its blockbuster report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Traditionally, value investing and growth investing are considered two distinct investment strategies. Value investors look for stocks they believe the market has undervalued and may be trading for less than their "intrinsic" value. Value investors often employ "bottom-up" investing, which focuses on individual companies rather than the overall market or industry. Growth investing focuses on companies expected to grow at an above-average rate compared to other companies. Is there a way to introduce a margin of safety to a growth stock using options?

Persons: Dan Ives, Jensen Huang, Vince Lombardi Organizations: Nvidia, Intel Locations: Wedbush

☆ A 'strangle' options trade on a top cybersecurity stock reporting after the bell
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Cybersecurity stock Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will be reporting Monday after the close. The following table includes ten stocks reporting earnings this week where the options market is implying moves of 7% or greater. Palo Alto Networks was hard hit after they reported earnings on February 20th. PANW YTD mountain Palo Alto Networks, YTD Palo Alto Networks is a global network security solutions provider. Palo Alto has recovered roughly half the decline the stock suffered following its earnings release last quarter.

Persons: Nikesh Arora, Zscaler, PANW Organizations: Palo Alto Networks, Networks, Palo Locations: Palo, Palo Alto

☆ Two trades to generate some income from outperforming retailers Walmart and Amazon
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

As we think about the multiple premium afforded to online retailers such as Amazon, Walmart's global eCommerce sales rose 21%. Walmart shares, at 26 times earnings, are value-priced relative to Costco's 46 times earnings. Amazon trade Amazon (AMZN) is growing topline considerably faster. Amazon revenues overtook Costco in 2016, and 2025 could be the first year that Amazon revenues exceed Walmart's. If growth is what you're after buy Amazon.

Persons: eCommerce Organizations: Walmart, Costco, Sam's

☆ How to generate some return on Costco after a nice rally, without having to sell the stake
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

How I think about Jim Simons' legacy, and a trade on one of the most successful retailers, Costco, follows. First, a contrarian view in Costco: Costco (COST) is one of the best performing retailers over the past year. Last week, Costco released their four-week retail sales results for the period between Monday, April 8th and Sunday, May 5th. There is only one thing I don't like about Costco, the price. The weak form suggests past market prices, which are generally observable, are fully reflected in stock prices.

Persons: Jim Simons, that's, Jim, James Surowiecki, Francis Galton, Eugene Fama Organizations: Costco, Fund Locations: Costco, U.S, New York, Surowiecki

☆ A port-in-the-storm trade if the consumer continues to get pinched by rates and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer, making up 70% of the U.S. economy, is being hit by higher interest rates and sticky inflation. Consumer spending, also known as personal consumption expenditures (PCE), typically represents about two-thirds of the U.S. GDP. While that is attributed to easing consumer demand for EVs, dealer inventories of ICE vehicles have recovered significantly since the pandemic. Away from consumer discretionary and towards consumer staples. The Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF (XLP) is trading 21 times trailing earnings and about 19.6 times forward earnings estimates versus 25.7 times trailing and 22.83 times forward for the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index.

Persons: there's, Tesla, Power Organizations: Starbucks, Investors, PPI, CPI, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ A Disney earnings trade more likely to make money than just buying call options outright
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

We'll take a deeper dive into what options traders are betting on in Disney and propose an alternative with a higher probability for a profit. Disney (DIS) traded above average call volume on Friday, with calls outpacing puts by nearly two-to-one. While that is higher than the long-term average earnings-related move, Disney has been quite volatile in recent quarters. Buyers of those calls are betting Disney will rally at least 6.75% by the end of the week. An investor who is willing to take more risk in exchange for a higher probability of profit might instead consider a diagonal call spread.

Persons: outpacing, Julie Biel Organizations: Disney, DIS, week's Locations: Disney

☆ How to generate some return in beaten-down Starbucks using options following its earnings rout
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Starbucks (SBUX) on Wednesday traded nearly seven times the 20-day average equity volume and 10 times the average daily options volume as the shares fell nearly 16%. It was the fourth-worst trading day for Starbucks since the company's IPO in 1992. And with respect to China specifically, Starbucks said the recovery there has been "choppy" with intense price wars. Starbucks reported $8.56 billion in second-quarter revenue, which represents a year-on-year decline of 1.8%. Don't try to catch a falling knife This presents a significant challenge for an investor in Starbucks stock.

Persons: Clinton, James Carville, SBUX Organizations: Wednesday, Starbucks Locations: China

☆ How to back a lagging lithium miner and still generate income using options
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Today, I'm focusing my attention on minerals used in modern technology and presenting a way to use options to play a lithium miner. The strategy gives a lower-risk way to get somewhat long this beaten-up miner without going all-in, and generating some income in the process. Lithium is used, as the name suggests, in lithium-ion batteries which are crucial for portable electronics, energy storage, and electric vehicles. Combined with understandably elevated options premiums this could set as a spot to begin entering a partial position, with some options overlays. Or, if the stock falls, would add to the long position at the short-put strike.

Persons: Tesla, Elon Musk, Albemarle Organizations: Albemarle Corporation, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai, GM, Ford, Toyota, Kia, Renault, Nissan Locations: Charlotte , NC, U.S, Albemarle, ALB

☆ Using options to trade this oil giant after its earnings came out this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Halliburton reported better-than-expected earnings this week, buoyed by a surprisingly strong performance from its North American division — which offset flat-to declining revenues from other geographic segments. The offsetting strength or weakness of various business segments and geographic exposures, particularly for a mature business such as oil services, suggests the range-bound price action that Halliburton's share price has experienced for the past two years could continue. Consequently, if one owns Halliburton shares, consider writing upside calls, particularly now that the company has released earnings. If shares decline and one is assigned the effective purchase price would be $36.42, at which point one could then look to sell upside calls. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: Halliburton, overwriting Organizations: North American, Halliburton Locations: North America

☆ Tesla could be volatile this week on earnings. Using options to mitigate the risk
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

I am a big fan of Tesla products and the company, but we do not currently own the stock. Since hitting its all-time high on Nov. 4, Tesla shares are the worst-performing member of the "Magnificent Seven". With prices running from about $40,000 for a single-motor version to $70,000 for a tri-motor variant, the Cybertruck's specifications were remarkable. China represents the largest market for EVs at the moment, and BYD is leading Tesla there. Among U.S. manufacturers, Tesla, because it eschews the conventional dealer model, has excellent flexibility on pricing, which they adjust dynamically.

Persons: Tesla, FSD, Warren Buffett's, Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, Elon Musk, General Motors, — Organizations: Nvidia, Elon, EVs, Ford, Toyota, South, U.S, Ford Motor, General, Tesla Locations: U.S, China, Tesla, Europe

☆ Options prices are rising as the market is on edge. How to use this to your advantage
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Options premiums are rising and we'll discuss how to take advantage of that by generating income through a covered call options strategy. First the consumer price index inflation data came in hotter than expected on Wednesday. The expectation had been that the pace of inflation – once those year-over-year price increases were in place — would slow in March. Since then, the "average" level of the VIX Index is 19.53. Holders could therefore look to options to potentially provide some yield if they are expecting less capital appreciation.

Persons: Warren Buffett, 28th's, Buffett Locations: Europe, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, United States, Domino's

☆ Regional banks are struggling. Here's why and how to profit from the trend with options
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Regional banks are taking hits this week and investors are increasing their bearish bets on the sector. Higher rates impact Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing money. Higher interest rates can also reduce demand for loans, as borrowing becomes more expensive for consumers and businesses. This can deteriorate the asset quality of regional banks, increasing the need for loan loss provisions, which are expenses set aside to cover potential loan losses. Rising interest rates and inflation can pressure banks' capital adequacy ratios, a measure of a bank's capital relative to its risks.

Persons: Banks Organizations: Regional Banking, Banks

☆ This oil refiner could get a boost as summer approaches. Using options to capitalize on the gains
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The move higher for energy stocks comes as West Texas Intermediate crude oil approaches the mid-2022 highs of $88.31 per barrel. Theoretically, one can make bullish bets on oil using an ETF, such as the United States Oil Fund (USO) . However, I would caution against using this as an investment vehicle to make a long-term bullish bet on oil. SPR decline As the chart below illustrates, the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined sharply in the lead-up to the 2022 midterm elections – keeping oil prices in check. The total cost of the spread risks just under 4.4% of the current stock price.

Persons: It's, Brent, Biden, Kinder Morgan Organizations: West Texas, United States Oil Fund, USO, country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Halliburton, Schlumberger, Valero, Marathon Petroleum, Marathon, MPC Locations: Marathon

☆ Gold could be implying inflation remains sticky. How to play it with options
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Reserve, as always, is trying to strike a balance between conquering inflation and navigating the soft-landing. Of course, if higher rates also successfully curb inflation then gold, as an inflation hedge, shines less brightly. GLD YTD mountain SPDR Gold Shares GLD But gold is shining brightly. So gold markets are implying that we could get some rate cuts, inflation will be sticky, or both. This provides continued exposure to the upside if the gold rally continues, while locking a modest profit as well.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, VanEck Gold Miners

☆ A lower-risk and cheaper way to bet on a second-quarter comeback in this emerging markets ETF
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI) hit an all-time high last week. ACWI 5Y mountain iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI) This index would appear to give investors diversified exposure to stock markets around the globe. It includes developing countries, unlike the MSCI World Index, which is tracked by the ETF 'URTH.' Consequently, the US stock market comprises almost 71% of the URTH ETF and nearly 64% of the ACWI ETF. This is illustrated by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index which can be traded with the iShares ETF, 'EEM.'

Persons: —, ACWI, Rob Reiner, Miracle Max, Billy Crystal, EEM Organizations: Trust Locations: URTH, U.S

☆ An options trade on a cheap energy stock that generates income while you wait for the comeback
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

There's a major energy stock trading on the cheap with a chance for upside. I'll review an options trade that generates income while I wait for the potential comeback. CVX 5Y mountain Chevron, 5 years This dynamic means that the integrated oil companies aren't growth stocks. That's OK though because they aren't priced like growth stocks either. The objective would be to hold the shares and rinse and repeat, continuing to write calls against the stock as the options previously written expire.

Persons: There's, we've, — Organizations: Chevron, Hess Corp

☆ This stock has nearly doubled in one year. Using options to catch further upside with less risk
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Here's an options strategy that allows traders to rent a stock instead of buying outright. United Rentals (URI) , headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, is the world's largest equipment rental company. According to a recent Deutsche Bank research report, United Rentals "operates in attractive end markets that are experiencing tailwinds from mega-projects, which are expected to provide a multi-year boost." URI 1Y mountain United Rentals, 1 year The only concern for those interested in purchasing United Rentals now is that perhaps things look too good. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: they're Organizations: United Rentals, Deutsche Bank Locations: Stamford , Connecticut

☆ The Fed just made it cheaper to hedge your stock portfolio. Here's how
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-21 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

I'll explain here and provide some examples of smart options hedges to put on from here. The Fed reiterated a forecast for three rate cuts this year while signaling that they may tolerate inflation rates above their stated 2% target for a longer period. .VIX 5D mountain CBOE Volatility Index, 5 days As I write this, the VIX Index is now roughly 12.8. In the case of SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) options for example, the implied volatility of the April 30th expiration $500 strike puts, as measured by implied volatility, fell from nearly 13.9% before the Fed announcement, to about 13.5% following. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: Jerome Powell, SPDR Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Trust Locations: —

☆ A lower-risk trade on a delivery giant with cheap valuation heading into earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

We'll review the fundamentals of a delivery giant and how to trade it before earnings this week. FedEx reports earnings on Thursday after the bell. The trade: Calendar spread However the "gloom" of economic pressures is another matter. Buying the July 250 puts and selling the weekly 250 puts against them. The trade: Selling March 22, $250 Puts Buying July 19 $250 puts The logic behind this trade is that the headwinds of operating challenges may already be baked into the valuation of FedEx at present levels.

Persons: New York City's James A Organizations: Farley Post, FedEx, Dow Jones Transports, week's Locations: New York, FedEx Memphis

☆ A lower-risk way to play the gold breakout from here
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

We'll break down the rally in gold, why gold miners have been trailing it and the options trades I'm putting on from here accordingly. Investing in gold and silver mining companies, rather than purchasing the precious metals has frequently been promoted as a way to get "leverage" to the price of gold or silver. Notice that the share price of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX ) tracking the companies, has declined more than 15.5% since the highs in April of 2023. GDX GLD mountain 2023-04-13 VanEck Gold Miners ETF (companies) vs. SPDR Gold shares ETF (commodity) It should be said that GDX and Newmont Corporation pay dividends, whereas gold itself does not. Additionally gold miners are sometimes located in suboptimal geographic locations/jurisdictions where they may be subject to geopolitical factors beyond the price volatility of the commodities they produce.

Persons: Warren Buffett Organizations: Gold Miners, Newmont Corp, Gold Miners ETF, SPDR, Newmont Corporation, Mining, Consumers Locations: Washington

☆ Options traders are heavily trading this health stock ahead of a big conference this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

We'll look at a health insurer stock with an interesting set-up heading into a big industry conference this week and break down various options trades being applied on it. Centene (CNC) traded nearly 9 times the average daily call volume on Friday ahead of Barclays 26th annual Global Healthcare Conference this week. Most active were the March 22nd weekly $82 calls and the March 28th weekly $82 calls. The mid price on the March 28th weekly $82 calls was nearly $2, substantially higher than the trader who initiated the block paid, and the weekly March 22nd calls would collect less than a quarter. If one owns the stock, a hedge might make sense, such as a weekly at-the-money put spread as illustrated below.

Persons: Bernstein, Centene, Cowen, what's Organizations: Barclays, Global Healthcare, Traders Locations: Texas, Florida, Georgia

☆ Finding the next retailer shoe to drop after the Foot Locker debacle this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Following the Foot Locker debacle earlier this week, there could be more turmoil in the retailer space. Because publicly traded companies provide quarterly financial reports, historic revenue growth and earnings multiples are available to everyone. Earlier this week, I wrote that Foot Locker 's outperformance relative to Nike was hard to comprehend. Dick's did not fall in sympathy with Foot Locker as Academy did, and admittedly Dick's is a very different business than Foot Locker. Observe that their revenues have more than tripled over the past 10 years even as Foot Locker has languished: That said, broader economic trends, while they may not affect all businesses equally, still matter.

Persons: it's, Dick's, Foot Locker, Locker Organizations: Investors, Nike, Academy Sports, Dick's Sporting

☆ This retailer is expected to move big this week on earnings. How to profit on it using options
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

It refers to the estimated future volatility of the underlying asset through a future (expiration) date. Leaving the fancy options mumbo jumbo to the side, it's just another way options traders think about the price of an option . It is because inputting volatility solves for price, or inputting price solves for volatility, that options traders tend to think of the two interchangeably. Big move expected for Foot Locker In the table below, we highlight some of the stocks reporting this week where options prices estimate fairly high moves around earnings. And how does one play it given that Foot Locker options are incredibly expensive?

Persons: Foot, Locker Organizations: Big, Nike Locations: it's

☆ The trader set-up on Target into earnings next week and a lower-cost way to bet on the stock
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Target reports earnings next Tuesday. Let's review the set-up on Target into the numbers and a lower cost way using options to get long the name. Consequently Target's share price has been much more volatile after reporting quarterly earnings. TGT 6M mountain Target, 6 months Target options prices are, a bit like the prices inside the retailers themselves, more expensive than Walmart's, deservedly given the big moves it's share price has seen. Because the share price needs to rise by almost 5% to see profits, the probability of profit is reduced.

Persons: deservedly Organizations: Walmart, Target, supercenters, Retailing Locations: U.S

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