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Views of former President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement — or MAGA — reveal a lot about likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers’ candidate preferences ahead of Monday’s GOP caucuses. Overall, the new NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll finds a combined 40% of likely caucusgoers identifying themselves as either “Ultra MAGA” (18%) or “Regular MAGA” (22%) when asked how they view the phrase. Among the likely caucusgoers who say Trump is their first choice, a combined 60% describe themselves as either Ultra MAGA (31%) or Regular MAGA (29%). And DeSantis’ supporters are in the middle: 24% are either Ultra or Regular MAGA; 57% are neutral; and 17% are anti-MAGA. The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa was conducted Jan. 7-12 of 705 likely Republican caucusgoers, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.7 percentage points.

Persons: Donald Trump’s “, MAGA, Iowa Republican caucusgoers, MAGA ”, Trump, DeSantis, caucusgoers Organizations: Iowa Republican, Monday’s GOP, NBC, Des Moines Register, Republican Locations: Monday’s, Iowa

☆ Majority of Iowa caucusgoers say Trump conviction wouldn’t affect their support
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Mark-Murray-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Mark Murray | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +1 min

By comparison, 19% of likely Iowa caucusgoers say a Trump conviction would make it more likely that they’d back Trump, while 18% say it would make them less likely to support the former president in the general election. As with the other findings from the Iowa poll, the likely caucusgoers backing former U.N. Among Haley’s supporters, 56% say a possible conviction of Trump doesn’t matter to their Nov. 2024 vote choice, but 41% say it would make them less likely to back Trump. By comparison, 70% of DeSantis supporters say it wouldn’t matter to them if Trump was convicted, versus 26% who say it will make them less likely to support the former president. And among Trump’s supporters, 58% say a conviction wouldn’t matter — and an additional 35% say a conviction would make them more likely to support their favored candidate.

Persons: caucusgoers, Donald Trump, Trump, Nikki Haley — Organizations: caucusgoers —, NBC, Des Moines, Trump, GOP, Des Moines Register Locations: Iowa

The NBC News poll isn’t the only one showing Biden struggling with young voters. The latest national NBC News poll finds President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump among young voters ages 18 to 34 — with Trump getting support from 46% of these young voters and Biden getting 42%. That means Trump's advantage among young voters in the poll is well within the margin of error — but the shift against Biden is not. The NBC News poll isn’t the only recent poll showing President Biden struggling with young voters, especially after the start of the Israel-Hamas war. CNN’s recent national poll had Trump ahead of Biden by 1 point among voters ages 18 to 34.

Persons: Biden, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump Organizations: NBC, NBC News, Trump, Biden, Quinnipiac University, Fox News, New York Times, Siena College, CBS Locations: Israel, Siena

A majority of American college students blame Hamas for the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, and two-thirds describe the attack as an act of terrorism by Hamas, according to a Generation Lab poll of two- and four-year college students. The poll finds 86% of college students saying they’re aware of the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. More than half, 52%, of the college students who say they’re aware of the Oct. 7 attack blame it on Hamas. By party, 73% of Republicans, 50% of Democrats and 50% of independents say they blame Hamas for the attack on Israel. And by race, 58% of white college students, 47% of Latinos and 36% of Black college students believe Hamas deserves blame for the attack.

Persons: Israel's Organizations: Hamas Locations: Israel, Gaza

According to the Wall Street Journal’s polling, Trump held a 24-point lead over DeSantis back in April, 48% to 24%. Or take CNN’s polling, which had Trump ahead of DeSantis by 21 points nationally back in June, 47% to 26%. Or look at Fox News’ poll, which had DeSantis at 28% back in February, versus 43% for Trump. But Fox’s latest national poll — back in mid-August — had DeSantis at 16% (versus 53% for Trump). Altogether, the pattern is clear: DeSantis’ national polling percentages have gone from the mid- to high-20s earlier this year to the teens now.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Ron DeSantis, Trump, — Organizations: Republican, Florida Gov, Trump, GOP, Fox News Locations: Florida, DeSantis

But a new Quinnipiac University poll of California finds a different issue at the top of voters’ minds in the Golden State: homelessness. According to the survey, 22% of all California voters named homelessness as the state’s most urgent issue — followed by affordable housing at 17%, inflation at 10%, taxes at 9% and crime and climate change tied at 8% each. By party, Democrats said that homelessness (26%) and affordable housing (24%) were their top issues; independents said it was homelessness (23%) and affordable housing (15%); and Republicans said it was immigration (17%), homelessness (14%) and taxes (14%). A separate question in the Quinnipiac poll found 84% of all California voters saying that homelessness is a very serious problem in the state, and 69% said the state was doing too little to help homeless people. The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted Feb. 23-27 of 1,091 registered voters in California, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.0 percentage points.

Persons: Gavin Newsom’s, Biden, Sen, Dianne Feinstein, Alex Padilla Organizations: NBC, Quinnipiac University, Golden, Democrats, California voters Locations: California, Golden State, Quinnipiac

A new national Quinnipiac University poll shows some striking fault lines emerging in the still-early 2024 Republican presidential race. But it’s the stark GOP divides in GOP support between Trump and DeSantis that stand out in the poll. Among just self-identified Republicans, Trump gets 48% versus 31% for DeSantis. And among white Republicans with four-year college degrees, DeSantis is ahead of Trump, 51%-22%. When Biden was matched up against DeSantis, it was DeSantis 47%, Biden 46%.

Ron DeSantis lead an early — and still incomplete — Republican presidential field, according to a new national Monmouth University poll released Thursday. Asked whom they’d like to see as the GOP’s presidential nominee, 33% of Republican voters answered Trump and another 33% picked DeSantis. But the contest is closer among respondents who identify as strong Republicans (DeSantis 49%, Trump 46%) and among evangelical Republicans (DeSantis 51%, Trump 44%). The worst favorable/unfavorable ratings among Republican voters were for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (23%-53%) and embattled freshman Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., (12%-42%). The Monmouth University poll was conducted Jan. 26 to Feb. 2 of 566 registered Republican voters, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 6.1 percentage points.

As President Joe Biden readies to deliver his State of the Union address, here's a look at how Americans rated him in the latest NBC News poll, released late last month. Biden's approval rating is 45%, effectively unchanged since Nov.Biden's approval rating has stayed durable across NBC's polling since September, at either 44% or 45% (that includes a mix of polls of registered voters and a broader sample of adults). That's a significant improvement from the 39% approval adults gave him in May, but still far lower than the 53% approval rating he secured in April of 2021. Notably, 50% of adults disapproved of Biden in the most recent NBC poll, the lowest since August of 2021. Majority of voters have reservations about Biden running againLike the man he beat in the 2020 presidential race, former President Donald Trump, a majority of registered voters are uncomfortable with Biden running for president again.

Seventy-five percent of Americans say strengthening the economy should be the top policy priority for President Joe Biden and Congress to address this year, according to a new Pew Research Center poll, higher than any other priority the survey tested. At the bottom of the list of 21 different policy priorities is dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, with just 26% of respondents saying Biden and Congress should address it this year — a drop from 2021 and 2022, when it was near the top in the poll. The Pew survey comes ahead of Biden’s State of the Union address on Tuesday, and it shows broad agreement that strengthening the economy should be priority, with 84% of Republicans and 68% of Democrat saying it should be. But there’s disagreement on dealing with immigration (70% of Republicans said it should be a priority, versus 37% of Democrats), on dealing with climate change (59% of Democrats vs. 13% of Republicans) and on addressing issues around race (49% of Democrats vs. 13% of Republicans). The online Pew poll was conducted Jan. 18-24 of 5,152 adults, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 1.7 percentage points.

The poll finds an American public that’s equally concerned about the discovery of classified documents found at Biden’s and Trump’s homes, even though the current president and ex-president handled their situations in different ways. Sixty-seven percent of Americans say it’s concerning that classified documents were found at Biden’s former office and personal home, including 33% who say it’s “very” concerning; 18% say it’s not too concerning or concerning at all. Strikingly, a majority of Democrats (52%) say they’re concerned about Biden’s classified documents, while a majority of Republicans (53%) are concerned about Trump’s. The NBC News poll was conducted Jan. 20-24, so mostly before the Jan. 24 news that small number of classified documents were found at former Vice President Mike Pence’s home. The most popular ideas: providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who meet certain requirements (80% say Congress should do this), taking a harder line against China (75% say Congress should act) and addressing immigration by increasing border security (72%).

☆ Poll: Majority of voters believe Biden acted inappropriately handling classified docs
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Mark-Murray-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Mark Murray | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +1 min

A new national Quinnipiac University poll finds 62% of registered voters believing that President Joe Biden acted inappropriately in how he handled classified documents after leaving the White House as vice president, versus 21% who say he acted appropriately. By party, 85% of Republican voters, 64% of independents and 36% of Democrats say Biden acted inappropriately. Asked how serious Biden’s handling of classified documents is, 41% of voters say it’s “very serious,” 32% say it’s “somewhat serious,” and a combined 22% say it’s not too serious or not serious at all. President Biden’s overall approval rating in the Quinnipiac poll is at 38% approve, 53% disapprove among registered voters. Biden receives his highest job rating on handling Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (46% of voters approve of his job), and he gets his lowest marks on handling the US-Mexico border (17% approve).

The GOP-controlled House passes a rules package for 118th Congress with just one GOP defection, NBC’s Kyle Stewart reports. ... President Biden spends his final day in Mexico City at North American Leaders’ Summit. But first: The news that the Justice Department is reviewing Obama Era classified documents found at a think tank tied to President Biden is quite a political gift to Donald Trump. “When is the FBI going to raid the many homes of Joe Biden, perhaps even the White House?” Trump posted on his Truth Social account. 6: The number of shootings recently at or near the homes of New Mexico Democratic political leaders, including the incoming state House speaker.

The new House GOP majority returns to elect a speaker after failing on three votes Tuesday. ... Nancy Pelosi reacts to GOP dysfunction: “As one who loves this institution, I think it’s a sad day.” ... And President Biden appears with Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell to tout the bipartisan infrastructure law. Andy Beshear) all appear at an event in Kentucky promoting a bridge improvement from the bipartisan infrastructure law. 16: How many years Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has served as Senate GOP leader, making him the longest-serving Senate leader ever, per NBC News’ Frank Thorp. Eyes on 2024: DeSantis takes office amid GOP chaosAs the GOP descended into chaos on Capitol Hill Tuesday, Florida GOP Gov.

While Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is leaving the Democratic Party and registering as an independent, the move won't likely do much to complicate her path to appearing on the ballot in 2024 if she decides to run for re-election. According to the Arizona Secretary of state, a candidate who wishes to be on the general election ballot without affiliating with a recognized political party need to submit at least 43,492 valid signatures. That figure is about 3% of the unaffiliated registered voters in the state. It's a relatively low threshold as far as ballot access goes, suggesting that Sinema wouldn't have much trouble getting on the ballot if she wants to run again. That said, ballot access isn't the big political question looming over Sinema's party switch — that's the question about whether Democrats choose to nominate a candidate themselves, and what impact that might have on what could be a competitive three-way race.

But first: The results from five counties will help tell us if Democrat Raphael Warnock is on track to win tonight’s Senate runoff in Georgia. Warnock got 56.9% of the vote in Cobb when he won the Jan. 2021 runoff, and he got just under that last November (56.8%). And in Gwinnett, Warnock got 60.6% of the vote in the 2021 runoff, compared with 58.9% last month against Walker. In rural Chattooga — one of NBC News’ “County to County” counties — Warnock got just 20.5% when he won the 2021 runoff, and he got less than that in the November general election (19.8%). Data Download: The number of the day is … $7.79 billionThat’s how much money was spent on political television, radio and digital ads this entire cycle (starting the day after the 2021 Georgia Senate runoff through today’s runoff), per AdImpact.

WASHINGTON — If it’s Monday ... It’s the last day of campaigning before tomorrow’s Georgia Senate runoff. ... NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard covers the closing messages by Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker. And just looking at the campaigns, which get the biggest bang per advertising buck, it’s Warnock at $25.2 million, versus Walker at $10.1 million. But now it’s $11.8 million — behind Warnock’s $25 million and the $20.3 million from Georgia Honor, a Democratic Super PAC. Runoff watch: Walker accuser speaks to NBC NewsDays after she first revealed an allegation of domestic abuse against Georgia Republican Senate hopeful Herschel Walker, a former girlfriend of his sat down with NBC News to detail those allegations.

In Arizona Senate, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is ahead of Republican Blake Masters by 115,000 votes with 80% in. On Dobbs, the national exit poll showed 27% of voters picking abortion as their No. And remember that our final NBC News poll found Trump as one of the most unpopular political figures we measured, especially compared with President Biden. In each state, those Democratic secretaries of state nominees were running against Republicans who cast doubt on the 2020 election result. Two of those five feature Democrat vs. Democrat contests, thanks to the state’s Top 2 primary, so those will stay in the Democratic column.

☆ Democrats catch up to GOP on enthusiasm in final NBC News poll before midterms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Mark-Murray-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Mark Murray | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

Forty-eight percent of likely voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress as the outcome from Tuesday’s elections, while 47% prefer a Republican-controlled Congress. Among all registered voters, congressional preference is tied at 47%-47% — essentially unchanged from last month, when Democrats held a narrow 1-point edge, 47%-46%. Yet what has changed in the poll is that Democrats have caught up to Republicans in election interest. An identical 73% of Democrats and Republicans express high interest, registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale. In October’s NBC News poll, Republicans held a 9-point advantage in high voter interest, 78% to 69%, after Democrats had previously closed the enthusiasm gap following the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn the Roe v. Wade decision on abortion.

Every election cycle, the NBC News Political Unit produces our Election Book to assist the network’s anchors, correspondents, producers and reporters in the field for Election Night. It contains essential information on almost every race, historical factoids, timelines, past exit polls, political trends and overarching narratives to help explain the current election cycle. It is our election bible, and we are making it available for you to read. You’ll be reading the material that our anchors, correspondents and producers will be relying on come Nov. 8 — and beyond. And you can keep up to date on the latest midterm elections news with the Meet the Press Blog as well as the NBC News midterm live blog.

☆ 'Anger on their minds': NBC News poll finds sky-high interest and polarization ahead of midterms
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Mark-Murray-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Mark Murray | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +8 min

And two-thirds of reliable Democratic and Republican voters say they’d still support their party’s political candidate, even if that person had a moral failing that wasn’t consistent with their own values. In the Oct. 2010 NBC News/WSJ poll, Barack Obama’s approval rating was 45% (when Democrats lost 63 House seats in that midterm election). Seventy-one percent of voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared with 20% who say it’s on the right track. A divided electorateThe NBC News poll shows just how polarized the electorate is before the midterm elections. And 60% of all voters say that President Biden won legitimately in 2020, compared with 33% (and 65% of Republicans) who say he didn’t win legitimately.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz was the only GOP committee member to oppose the bill. Other numbers to know:155 miles per hour: How fast the maximum sustained winds of Hurricane Ian were as of Wednesday morning, per the National Hurricane Center. 23 percentage points: Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s edge over Republican Gov. Last night, Democratic Gov. Tim.”Oklahoma Senate: Former President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Sen. James Lankford in his Senate bid, after conspicuously not endorsing the GOP incumbent in his primary.

☆ Poll: GOP is winning on the economy, immigration; Democrats are ahead on abortion and health care
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Chuck-Todd-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Chuck Todd | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +9 min

... And Joe O’Dea pitches himself as pro-abortion rights in Colorado Senate while Democrats push back. The Republican Party holds all-time high advantages on the economy, crime and border security, while the Democrats have an all-time high on abortion and a double-digit edge on health care. Midterm roundup: Trump hits the trail in OhioFormer President Donald Trump traveled to Ohio over the weekend to boost GOP Senate hopeful J.D. Not every GOP Senate candidate is eager to campaign with Trump. It’s a position on abortion that is different from that of his fellow Republican Senate candidates, many of whom favor stricter bans with few exceptions.

That’s essentially unchanged from last month’s NBC News poll, which had Republicans ahead by 2 points, 47%-45%, well within that poll’s margin of error. In this new poll, Democrats enjoy advantages among Black voters (77%-8%), those in the age group 18-34 (57%-33%), whites with college degrees (58%-38%), women (53%-40%) and Latinos (46%-42%). That’s essentially unchanged from August, when 68% of Republicans and 66% of Democrats expressed high interest. By comparison, Biden’s favorability score in the new NBC News poll is 42% positive, 47% (-5). And on the topic of abortion, 61% of voters say they disapprove the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in June overturning Roe v. Wade, compared with 37% who approve.

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