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☆ A researcher who studied Trump's plans to control the Fed said it could tank the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-29 | by ( Alice Tecotzky | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Economists at the Peterson Institute studied what would happen if Trump undermined Fed independence. The study's lead researchers dug into the economic impact of three of Trump's campaign promises: mass deportations, tariffs, and eroding Fed independence. Though Trump promises an America First economic agenda, McKibbin said that taking control of the Fed would get him the opposite results. AdvertisementHe doesn't think the public is paying enough attention to the risks of Trump's Fed proposals or the overall murkiness of the candidates' economic policy. "If you're going to advocate a policy, there has to be evidence as to why you're advocating that policy," McKibbin said.

Persons: Trump, —, Warwick McKibbin, McKibbin, Jerome Powell, Trump hasn't, they're, Kamala Harris, Harris Organizations: Peterson Institute, Fed, BI, Service, Federal, Peterson Institute of International Economics, Trump, PIIE, Business, Wall Street Journal, Biden Locations: China, Canada, Mexico, Australia, America

☆ Trump’s promises would spike inflation and wipe out jobs, study finds
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The paper represents the most comprehensive analysis to date on the combined impact of Trump’s trade, immigration and Fed proposals. In that scenario, employment would be 9% lower than baseline by 2028 and inflation would surge to 9.3% by 2026. “So-called economists and experts doubted President Trump’s economic plans in his first term. That means the same factory workers Trump says he is trying to help would be hurt the most. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who was nominated by Trump in 2017, cautioned against any effort to interfere with Fed independence.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, “, Warwick McKibbin, Megan Hogan, Marcus Noland, they’ll, ” Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s, Kamala Harris, Harris, ” Trump, McKibbin, Mark Zandi, ”, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, We’re Organizations: CNN, Republican, Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, Trump, Security, ”, Peterson, Moody’s, Bloomberg Locations: United States, China, America, Georgia, Michigan, outflows

☆ Trump's mass deportation plans could wreak havoc on the fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Alice Tecotzky | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But think-tank economists warned Business Insider that former President Donald Trump's proposed mass deportation could open that door right back up. Beyond posing significant humanitarian concerns, economists worry Trump's proposed mass deportation would be hugely inflationary, partly due to the basic calculations of supply and demand. Both he and Edelberg said a sudden mass deportation would upend the labor supply and, in turn, the ability to make goods. McKibbin has researched the impact of mass deportation and said it would lead to a combination of lower production and higher costs, particularly in the agriculture and construction sectors. Add on the uncertainty that mass deportation would bring, and a chilling effect among investors seems plausible.

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris, Trump's, Wendy Edelberg, Warwick McKibbin, Edelberg, Adam Posen, Posen, McKibbin, Josh Bivens Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Trump, Business, Brookings Institution, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, Bloomberg TV, Economic Policy Institute, Democratic

☆ What Trump and Harris’ economic proposals mean for you
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Here’s a look at what could happen to inflation, jobs and the deficit if Trump or Harris win in November. That, among other things, would keep the top tax rate individuals pay at 37% compared to 39.6% before it went into effect. Meanwhile, the tax proposals Harris has put forth so far mostly involve imposing higher taxes, which would have a positive impact on the deficit. For instance, she’s endorsed raising the top individual income tax rate to 44.6% and the top long-term capital gains tax rate to 28% versus the current 20%. Taken together, the Penn Wharton Budget model estimates Harris’ proposals could increase the deficit by an additional $1.2 trillion by 2034.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Trump, Warwick McKibbin, Goldman, she’s, ”, Justin Wolfers, Kevin Dietsch, He’s, Elon Musk, She’s, Joshua Gotbaum Organizations: New, New York CNN, Labor Department, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Gross, University of Michigan, CNN, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Wharton Budget, Social Security, Penn, Wharton Budget Model, Penn Wharton Budget, Brookings Institution Locations: New York, United States, Penn

☆ Aussie central bank fix will paper over inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MELBOURNE, April 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Australia’s central bank is getting the builders in – literally and figuratively. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s 1960s Sydney headquarters is currently clad in scaffolding, part of what is supposed to be a two-year, A$200 million-plus ($135 million) renovation. For a central bank, the RBA is particularly quirky. Another major task for the review panel was assessing how the bank combats inflation, which hit 7.8% in the year to December. Treasurer Jim Chalmers on March 31 received the final report on the review of the country’s central bank that he unveiled last July.

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