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U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Deutsche Bank's CVIX (.DBCVIX) - the currency market's version of Wall St's "fear index" of stock volatility and a weighted average of implied "vol" in nine major pairings - has basically imploded. By driving short-term dollar cash rates and U.S. bond yields higher over the past 20 months, the Fed basically sucked cash from the wider investment world and supercharged dollar exchange rates everywhere. Now that it looks done, the buck's finally on the back foot - plumbing levels not seen since August. With implied volatility directionally biased, the dollar index and the CVIX are typically well correlated and both peaked in tandem in same month of September last year.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Deutsche Bank's, Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, BOJ, BOE, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Matthew Hornbach, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Deutsche, U.S, ING, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England, ECB, UBS Global Wealth, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S . Federal, Japan, U.S
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 this week. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since 2011. What's more, higher yields are typically a negative for tech and growth stocks — this year's best-performing group — as they lessen the value of their promised future earnings. Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish said Monday he expects the 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 5.25%, citing risks to the bond market on inflation expectations. US10Y YTD mountain U.S. 10-year Treasury yield YTD "The market has been consistently underpricing the risk of additional rate hikes and overpricing the speed of rate cuts," Kalish wrote.
Persons: Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Strategas, Chris Verrone, 133bps, Verrone, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach, it's, Tom Essaye, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Chris Hayes Organizations: Treasury, Federal Locations: U.S
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. economy benefited from the government's budget deficit increase: Morgan Stanley's HornbachMatthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley Global Head of Macro Strategy, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk moves in the bond market, recent Fed speak and more.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Hornbach Matthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley Organizations: U.S, Morgan Stanley Global, Macro
Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest in three months at 4.65%, now on par with the current Fed policy rate. Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach described the payrolls as a "mood changing" print that's seen markets chase rates higher as if gripped by a sort of reverse FOMO - fear of missing out. Reports circulated last week of swaps and options market activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that bet on market rates touching 6%, or at least hedging against that possibility. If that's true, the battle over the terminal rate may now be overtaken by how long the Fed can keep rates higher to achieve its goals. BofA chart on peak rates from fund manager surveyInflationThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
Blackburn Law, PLLC. "Essentially, Morgan Stanley gave me the seed money to start my practice," Blackburn said of his resolved legal dispute with the bank. A Morgan Stanley spokesman declined to comment on Blackburn's employment at the firm. Hornbach allegedly tasked von der Schmidt with producing the research publication in December 2019, months into his employment at Morgan Stanley. He said it was experiences at Morgan Stanley that put him on the path to being a litigator.
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