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But even as the dust settles from a string of government seizures of failed midsized banks, the forces that sparked the regional banking crisis in March are still at play. What is coming will likely be the most significant shift in the American banking landscape since the 2008 financial crisis. JPMorgan shares are up 7.6% this year, while the KBW Regional Banking Index is down more than 20%. Some of those pressures will be visible as regional banks disclose second-quarter results this month. "The fundamental issue with the regional banking system is the underlying business model is under stress," said incoming Lazard CEO Peter Orszag.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Brian Graham, Banks, KeyCorp, Matt O'Connor, Peter Orszag, SVB, Chris Wolfe, Wolfe, you've, You've, Goldman Sachs, Lazard's Orszag, Orszag, Janet Yellen, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Klaros, Graham Organizations: First, JPMorgan, Silicon Valley Bank, CNBC, Klaros, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Justice Department Locations: First Republic, Silicon Valley, SVB, KBW, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Republic
With the Federal Reserve expected to pause its rate-hiking campaign at this week's meeting, regional banks stocks have made a comeback, but that doesn't mean all the trouble is in the rearview mirror. Still, the upward march resumed on Tuesday, begging the question of what's ahead for bank stocks. As the Treasury sells tens of billions of dollars in Treasury bills, it could pressure bank deposits. Graseck predicts that a reacceleration of deposit outflows would snuff out the bank stock rally. In addition, regional bank earnings estimates, which had been cut severely in March and April, had leveled off in May.
Persons: Jack Ablin, Ablin, outflows, SVB, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, Graseck, Nicholas Colas, Huntington Bancshares, Matt O'Connor, KeyCorp, Albin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Cresset, Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, PacWest Bancorp, Bank of America, Treasury, DataTrek Research, Citizens Financial Group, Truist, Morgan Stanley U.S, Financials, CRE Conference, Deutsche Bank, TFC Locations: Silicon, Federal, U.S, 2Q23, New York
As concerns about regional banks roiled markets, investors weighed another threat: commercial real estate. Also, layered on top of the property value pressure, are the tightening credit conditions brought on by the recent turmoil in the banking sector. There is no doubt this scenario is a toxic mix for the capital-intensive real estate industry. At the moment, many experts say the real estate market isn't causing trouble for banks, but fears about the financial system are likely worsening conditions in real estate because liquidity is being reduced. The biggest concern is seeing how many other companies join Brookfield , Blackstone and Pimco in handing back the keys on office properties, Clancy said.
It's been a confusing time for investors in bank stocks. Analysts are expecting a mixed bag of conflicting trends when four of the largest U.S. banks report fourth-quarter results Friday. "Our continued cautious view ... reflects ongoing macro risks and likely weakening bank fundamentals —including peaking net interest margins," Deutsche Bank analyst Matt O'Connor said in Jan. 5 note. The outlook Investors tend to discount fourth-quarter results in favor of what managements say about their outlooks for the coming year. "We expect above-consensus expense guides will likely weigh on bank stocks during 4Q22 earnings as managements communicate their 2023 budget plans," Graseck said.
Deutsche Bank is shifting its perspective on shares of Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase as macro uncertainties loom. Analyst Matt O'Connor downgraded shares of both banks to hold from buy in a note to clients Thursday, saying that the two stocks look poised for new lows as fundamentals weaken. O'Connor also sees earnings for both companies as likely peaking, expecting downturn risks to pressure valuations. Shares of Bank of America and JPMorgan fell more than 25% and 15.3%, respectively, in 2022. The firm's revised $36 and $145 price targets suggesting shares can gain about 6% and 7%, respectively.
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