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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Bank of Japan deputy governor discusses BOJ's January policy decisionBank of Japan can afford to wait on any decision to exit its negative rates policy partly because inflation is "decelerating a little bit," says Masazumi Wakatabe, former Bank of Japan deputy governor.
Persons: Masazumi Wakatabe Organizations: Former Bank of Japan, Bank of Japan
With the approval, government nominee Kazuo Ueda will officially succeed incumbent BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda whose second, five-year term ends on April 8. But the BOJ's current policy is a necessary, appropriate means to achieve 2% inflation," Ueda told parliament last month, signalling that he was in no rush to hike rates. "I'll succeed the policy in the context of seeking to hit the BOJ's 2% inflation stably and sustainably," Ueda replied. Hiroshi Shiratori, a professor at Japan's Hosei University, see the appointment of Ueda as a sign Kishida wants the BOJ to phase out the legacy policy of Abenomics. "Ueda is saying the BOJ will maintain low rates for now.
BOJ's Wakatabe warns secular stagnation risk has yet to pass
  + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Feb 28 (Reuters) - Central banks must remain on guard against the potential dangers of secular stagnation and low inflation as price rises driven by cost-push factors do not last long, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe said on Monday. Japan's economy was in deflation for a prolonged period, but sustainable monetary easing has "certainly had a positive effect" on the real economy, Wakatabe said, defending the BOJ's prolonged, ultra-loose monetary policy. "The mild-inflation regime has not come to an end, and we should say that the potential dangers of secular stagnation and Japanification have not yet passed," he said in a speech delivered at Columbia University in New York. After adjustment, the rising inflation rate is likely to return to the steady-state inflation rate," he said. Of course, it is possible that cost-push factors will remain, but whether they will push up the steady-state inflation rate is uncertain," Wakatabe said, adding that it was "well known that cost-push inflation does not last long."
[1/2] Kazuo Ueda, a former member of the BOJ's policy board, is seen at the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan May 25, 2022, in this photo taken by Kyodo. Ueda, a 71-year-old former Bank of Japan policy board member and an academic at Kyoritsu Women's University, will succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second, five-year term ends on April 8. The governor and deputy governor nominees will testify at confirmation hearings to be held on Feb. 24 for the lower house, and Feb. 27 for the upper chamber. International markets have been closely watching Kishida's choice of next BOJ governor for clues on how soon the bank could phase out its yield curve control (YCC) policy. With markets creaking under the BOJ's heavy-handed intervention, many investors are betting the central bank will start hiking rates under Kuroda's successor.
Ueda, a 71-year-old former Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board member, will succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second, five-year term ends on April 8, according to documents presented to parliament on Tuesday. Analysts expect Ueda, who had warned of the dangers of premature interest rate hikes in the past, to hold off on tightening monetary policy. "Ueda is likely to focus on theory and empirical analysis in guiding monetary policy," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Upon parliament's approval, Ueda will chair his first BOJ policy meeting on April 27-28. A soft-spoken academic with a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ueda is seen as a pragmatist who can adjust his views on monetary policy flexibly.
"I'd like to select (the next BOJ governor) taking these factors into account," Kishida said, when asked by an opposition lawmaker what the qualifications Kuroda's successor must have. Markets are closely watching the appointment of the new BOJ governor for clues on how quickly the central bank could phase out its massive stimulus programme. The government is considering presenting to parliament its nominees for next BOJ governor and two deputy governors next week, sources told Reuters. Kishida had earlier said no decision had been made, after the Nikkei newspaper reported on Monday the government has sounded out BOJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya to succeed Kuroda. Among other key contenders, former BOJ Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso has long experience overseeing the BOJ's market operations and international affairs.
The next BOJ chief will face the delicate task of normalising ultra-loose monetary policy, which is drawing increasing public criticism for distorting market function. A career central banker who has drafted many of the BOJ's monetary easing tools, Amamiya has been seen by markets as a top contender to take over as next governor. The Nikkei report did not say whether Amamiya accepted the offer. The prime minister's office and the BOJ were not immediately available to comment on the Nikkei report outside of regular office hours. Amamiya and Masazumi Wakatabe are currently serving as deputy governors, but their five-year terms end on March 19.
The Nikkei newspaper reported the government has sounded out BOJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya as the next governor, citing anonymous government and ruling party sources. The government will present a nominee for BOJ governor, and that for two deputy governors, to parliament later this month. But he also said in July the BOJ must "always" think about the means of exiting ultra-loose monetary policy. FEMALE DEPUTY GOVERNOR CANDIDATESNo female has yet served as BOJ deputy governor or governor, a tradition Kishida may seek to change to enhance diversity. FINANCIAL BUREAUCRAT DEPUTY GOVERNOR CANDIDATESIf a former BOJ executive becomes governor, there is a strong chance one of the deputy governor posts will be filled by top finance ministry bureaucrats such as Shigeaki Okamoto and Yasushi Kinoshita.
Wakatabe, a vocal proponent of aggressive monetary easing, said watering down the inflation target risked making the objective of the BOJ's monetary policy too vague. "It could undermine the transparency of monetary policy and its effectiveness," he said in a speech. But there was uncertainty on whether such changes in the price outlook would be sustained and help Japan achieve the inflation target in a sustainable manner, he said. The outcome of annual wage negotiations between businesses and unions would be crucial, Wakatabe said, stressing the importance of achieving solid wage increases for Japan to see inflation sustainably meet the BOJ's price target. "The BOJ will continue to conduct monetary policy with the aim of achieving its 2% inflation target, accompanied by wage increases," Wakatabe said.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) also awaits a leadership transition as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's second five-year term ends in April. Below are key dates to watch:BOJ LEADERSHIP RACEPrime Minister Fumio Kishida will hand-pick nominees for the governor and deputy governor posts from a list crafted by his close aides and finance ministry officials. People seen as top candidates for the BOJ governor post include incumbent deputy governor Amamiya, as well as former deputy governors Hiroshi Nakaso and Hirohide Yamaguchi. The subsequent meeting will be held on April 27-28 under a new BOJ leadership. The new BOJ governor will also be busy with international meetings.
Waiting until next year would have forced the BOJ to combat intensifying market speculation of a near-term policy shift, or act when a deep U.S. recession could hit Japan's economy, they say. "When uncertainty is so high over the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, it probably wants to have a free hand on when next to act." POLITICS KEY TRIGGERThe abrupt timing of Tuesday's move also reflects growing political pressure for the BOJ to shift away from a policy narrowly focused on its 2% inflation target, the sources say. Hours before he met Kishida, Kuroda explained in parliament a framework on how the BOJ could exit ultra-easy policy in the future. Another dovish board member, Asahi Noguchi, also said earlier this month it "won't be surprising" for the BOJ to shift monetary policy.
PUBLIC DISCONTENTAfter a tumultuous year for the world's third-largest economy, Japan's central bank and its leadership face a critical moment. While ruling out the need to ditch the yield cap now, Takata recently said he saw positive developments in wage growth. "The BOJ must start worrying about the possibility of inflation accelerating more than expected," he told Reuters, adding the BOJ may abandon its yield cap as early as next year. Such a reaction was seen in March when the BOJ was forced to pledge unlimited bond buying to defend its yield cap from speculative market attacks. "That's why the BOJ won't provide advance signals and remove the yield cap in a single step."
BOJ's Wakatabe warns risk of 'Japanification' not gone yet
  + stars: | 2022-12-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
TOKYO, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Even as cost-push factors boost inflation, global central banks must be vigilant to the risk of "Japanification", in which their economies face prolonged low inflation and stagnation, said Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe. Various structural factors could weigh on the neutral rate, or the rate at which monetary policy is neither stimulating nor restricting growth, across the globe, he said. "What Japan's long experience with deflation shows is that it's quite hard to eradicate fears of deflation," said Wakatabe, who is known as a vocal advocate of aggressive monetary easing. It continues to maintain ultra-low rates, even as rising raw material costs push inflation above the target. Wakatabe, whose five-year term as deputy governor ends in March, has consistently stressed the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose to put a sustained end to deflation.
Morning Bid: In Hunt we Truss
  + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
While insisting Truss, who is fighting to keep her job, is indeed in charge, Hunt catalogued the mistakes made in the past few weeks and signalled that tighter spending controls and some tax rises are on the way. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"I think what the country wants now is stability." Monday will test all sides in the UK gilt markets now that the central bank's emergency bond-buying programme has concluded. Hunt has already spoken to the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, agreeing on the need to repair the public finances. Sterling has nudged higher after Truss reversed some of her government's economic plan, not long after she sacked Kwasi Kwarteng as finance minister.
Sterling rebounds on UK fiscal policy U-turn; yen struggles
  + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
In this photo illustration, British GDP £1 coins and bank notes are pictured in Bath, England. The news came hours after she sacked former finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng, with Jeremy Hunt replacing him. All eyes are now on how the UK government bond market will trade, after the Bank of England on Friday concluded its emergency gilt market support. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen, firmed at 113.02. Elsewhere, the euro gained 0.26% to $0.9748, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars bounced mildly from recent losses.
Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterHe pointed to the Japanese leader's recent remarks to the Financial Times that the BOJ needed to maintain its ultra-loose policy until wages went higher. When asked about the yen's recent sharp declines, the BOJ deputy governor said: "When it comes to foreign exchange fluctuations right now, it's clearly too rapid and too one-sided." Wakatabe said the BOJ must maintain ultra-loose monetary policy because wage growth remains weak and inflation expectations, while rising, have yet to be firmly anchored around its 2% inflation target. That's when we are going to think about changing policy," Wakatabe said. The BOJ remains an outlier among the world's central banks, many of which are tightening monetary policy to combat soaring inflation, as it focuses on underpinning a fragile economic recovery.
As Kuroda's right-hand man, he has consistently called for the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose to ensure Japan makes a sustained exit from deflation. Like Amamiya, Nakaso is considered a safe pair of hands with his expertise on central bank affairs. The BOJ's dovish stance has made it an outlier among a global wave of central banks tightening monetary policy to combat surging inflation. "While Kuroda is at the helm, the BOJ's ultra-loose monetary policy won't change," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. "But under a new leadership, the bank could reassess its view on the inflation outlook and thinking on monetary policy."
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