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El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele speaks during a ceremony to lay the first stone of a new public hospital, in San Salvador, El Salvador June 15, 2023. El Salvador's debt repurchases last year and a still-light payments calendar were behind a rally that shrank the premium to hold Salvadoran government debt (.JPMEGDELSR) from above 3,200 basis points in July last year to about 1,000 a year later. Katrina Butt, a senior economist at AllianceBernstein, said that even as the size of the investment is yet to be made public, "Google Cloud's announcement could significantly improve macro fundamentals in El Salvador over time". "Though outperformance of El Salvador has been impressive we think the carry is still attractive given the low default risk." BNP's Marshik said the next leg of the rally could come from good news on El Salvador's relationship with the International Monetary Fund - where the United States is the largest shareholder.
Persons: Nayib Bukele, Jose Cabezas, Nathalie Marshik, Katrina Butt, Shamaila Khan, BNP's Marshik, Siobhan Morden, Rodrigo Campos, Nelson Renteria, Angus MacSwn Organizations: El, San Salvador , El, REUTERS, SALVADOR, Reuters, BNP Paribas, Google, United States, U.S . Embassy, Peace Corps, Central American, U.S, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, International Monetary, IMF, Santander US Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: San Salvador ,, San Salvador , El Salvador, El Salvador, America, Peace, El Salvador's, Asia, United States
Rising tensions between Washington and President Nayib Bukele's government, dwindling prospects of a financing deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the fallout from bitcoin becoming legal tender against a wider difficult macro backdrop had seen El Salvador bonds drop to a quarter of face value last July. "In the summer of 2022, El Salvador bond prices were divorced from fundamentals," said Aaron Stern, managing partner and chief investment officer at Converium Capital in Toronto, who has been holding the country's bonds since last year. "The market was concerned about the administration's willingness to pay," he said, but even now El Salvador offers attractive value when compared to a number of better priced emerging market sovereigns. These were the best performing among sovereign bonds in the first half of the year, with total returns near 60%. "In a year where carry is the main driver of total returns, investors are going to be reticent to take profits too early," said BNP Paribas' Nathalie Marshik, a managing director for Latin America fixed income.
Persons: Nayib Bukele's, buybacks, Aaron Stern, Alejandro Werner, Bukele, there's, Shamaila Khan, Nathalie Marshik, Marshik, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, William Maclean Organizations: YORK, Central, International Monetary Fund, El, IMF, Converium Capital, Reuters, Emerging Markets, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, Reuters Graphics JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: El Salvador, Central American, Washington, Toronto, it's, America
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