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This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Rate cuts several months awayFederal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he does not think further rate increases are necessary, but he will need convincing before backing any rate cuts. Singapore Airlines: one dead, 30 injuredOne person died and 30 people were injured aboard a Singapore Airlines flight that was hit by severe turbulence and forced to land in Thailand. Singapore Airlines Flight 321 encountered "sudden, severe turbulence" about 10 hours into a flight from London to Singapore, the airline said.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Biden, Jennifer Granholm, Walt Disney, Bob Iger, Jesse Pound, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Federal, Gasoline, East, Pixar, Studios, Disney, Walt Disney Animation, Singapore Airlines, Singapore Airlines Flight, Boeing, Wall Street Locations: New York City, Israel, Thailand, London, Singapore
JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic sees no reason to turn bullish on the stock market despite record highs. In a Monday note, Kolanovic reiterated his view that the S&P 500 could fall 20% to 4,200. AdvertisementJust one day after Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson abandoned his bearish stock market call, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic is digging his heels in. Kolanovic is the last mega-bank-bear on Wall Street, reiterating his view in a Monday note that the S&P 500 will fall about 20% to 4,200, levels not seen since October. And AI won't save the stock market, either.
Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, , Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, It's Organizations: Service Locations: Kolanovic
A top strategist for JPMorgan is sticking with a pessimistic outlook for stocks despite a strong start to 2024 that's winning over other Wall Street skeptics. The JPMorgan note comes shortly after strategists from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley raised their forecasts for the S & P 500. The stock market has outrun most Wall Street projections so far this year, with the S & P 500 up more than 11%. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has already surpassed the original year-end 2024 targets from major Wall Street strategists. Kolanovic's JPMorgan colleague Dubravko Lakos-Bujas has the lowest S & P 500 target — 4,200 — among major strategists, according to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey .
Persons: that's, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley, Dubravko Lakos, Bujas, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, CNBC Market, Survey
In a note on Sunday, Mike Wilson increased his S&P 500 price target by 20% to 5,400. Morgan Stanley's CIO Mike Wilson ditched his bearish call in a note on Sunday, increasing his 12-month S&P 500 price target by 20% to 5,400. AdvertisementWilson's base-case S&P 500 price target of 5,400 is derived from a 19x price-to-earnings multiple on 12-month forward earnings per share estimate of $283 by June 2026. Wilson first turned bearish on US stocks in 2021, correctly warning of a potential 20% decline in the S&P 500. JPMorgan maintains a year-end price target of 4,200 for the S&P 500, representing potential downside of 21% from current levels.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, , Morgan Stanley's, Dubravko, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, Wilson, JPMorgan
Meme stocks are having a moment, but the broader market is rallying as well. While GameStop's 74% rally got a lot of attention Monday ( "meme stocks are back!" ), the evidence indicates that a broad rally is dragging up a lot of stuff that hasn't been performing well this year. The S & P 600 Small Cap advance/decline is also near the highest levels since December, while the S & P Mid Cap 400 advance/decline line is at a new high. So when you hear the tired old refrain, "meme stocks are back," take a look at the rest of the market.
Persons: hasn't, Marko Kolanovic, Morgan, BoE, Ryan Detrick Organizations: Fed, ECB, Intel, Nike, Comcast, ChargePoint Holdings, CRISPR Therapeutics, Unity Software, Carson Group, CNBC
Switzerland wins Eurovision Song Contest amid Gaza protests
  + stars: | 2024-05-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The completed stage for the Eurovision song contest (ESC) is pictured at the Malmo Arena, shown to the media at a press conference in Malmo, Sweden on April 25, 2024. Switzerland on Saturday won the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 in Swedish host city Malmo, beating runner-up Croatia, after having been among bookmakers' top-three to win the competition. Swiss rapper and singer Nemo, 24, won the contest with "The Code", a drum-and-bass, opera, rap and rock song, about Nemo's journey of self-discovery as a non-binary person. The Eurovision winner is awarded the contest's official glass trophy, which is shaped like a classic, old-fashioned microphone, with sand blasted and painted details. "I didn't just break the code, I also broke the trophy," Nemo said, laughing, at the press conference after the win.
Persons: Nemo, Celine Dion, Swiss revellers, Maha Nater, Lasagna, Marko Purisic, Israel's Eden Golan, Joost Klein Organizations: Eurovision, Malmo, Saturday, Moi, Protesters, European Broadcasting Union, Russia, Police Locations: Malmo, Sweden, Switzerland, Croatia, Israel, Gaza, Swiss, Zurich, Europe, Ukraine, Dutch
Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.
Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, , of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan
America's big stagflation scare is over
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe US economy looks to have steered clear of danger after the specter of stagflation spooked markets and put analysts on edge in recent weeks. Further, average hourly earnings unexpectedly declined to 0.2%. And since elevated labor costs are part of the stagflation equation, the dip in average hourly earnings also signaled a period of languid growth will be avoided. It sent alarm bells ringing around stagflation, which occurs when inflation stays high despite a cooling economy.
Persons: , specter, Marko Kolanovic, Mohamed El, Bank of America's Michael Harnett —, Harnett Organizations: Service, Business, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Bank of America's
In today's big story, what another delay to interest rate cuts means for a market banking on them. The big storyThe waiting game continuesChip Somodevilla/Getty Images; BISpoiler alert: The Federal Reserve won't be lowering interest rates today. The official announcement won't come until this afternoon, but interest rates staying where they are is a forgone conclusion. The CME FedWatch Tool, which calculates the probability of the Fed's decision based on interest rate traders, has the odds of rates staying untouched at 97.5%.) Talk of cutting interest rates has been going on for the better part of a year.
Persons: , it's, doesn't, We'll, Chip Somodevilla, Jerome Powell, Matt Rourke, Sarah Silbiger, Alyssa Powell, CME's, aren't, Powell, Erin Schaff, Paul Krugman, Donald Trump's, Krugman, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Rebecca Zisser, Instagram, Changpeng Zhao, Binance, Amazon, Emma Tucker's, Steve Bannon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Stagecoach, Trump, Tech, Investors, Bloomberg, Getty, The New York Times, Hunterbrook, JPMorgan, Adobe, Wall Street Journal, Staff, eBay, Pfizer, Google Locations: stagflation, New York, London
JPMorgan says the recent stock rebound driven by robust earnings masks looming stagflationary risks. The soft landing narrative is challenged by the first-quarter GDP report. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe recent rally in the stock market, bolstered by a wave of upbeat earnings, is glossing over a host of risks raised by the latest economic data points, JPMorgan said this week. Jamie Dimon and other experts are sounding the alarm, saying the US might be headed for a 1970s-style scenario, complete with a stock market crash.
Persons: , JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, hasn't, Jamie Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Microsoft
In today's big story, we're looking at Tesla's earnings report and what comes next for the EV maker. The big storyTesla's turnaround planJADE GAO/AFP via Getty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng; BIBad news: Tesla's earnings report was worse than expected. AdvertisementPerhaps that's why Musk spent so much of the earnings call discussing autonomy and the progress made with Tesla's Full Self-Driving software . Musk told analysts on the earnings call that Tesla is the majority of his work . If investors vote against the package at Tesla's annual meeting in June, who knows where Musk — and his AI ambitions — will end up .
Persons: , Chelsea Jia Feng, Elon Musk, Tesla, Musk, hasn't, Insider's Linette Lopez, Matt Anderson, Tyler Le, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Cathie, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, Gerard Julien, Elon Musk's, Carl Godfrey, Joe Biden, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Getty Images, Tesla, Getty, EV, Musk's, Intel, Micron Technology, Microsoft, BI America, Amazon, Boeing, Meta, IBM, US Locations: Delaware, Outflows, United States, China, Idaho, New York, London
Don't be fooled by Monday's bounce, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic warned. The S & P 500 entered the week down more than 5% from an all-time high reached earlier in the year. A correction is generally defined as a 10% drop from a 52-week high. "Market concentration has been very high, and positioning extended, which are typically red flags, at risk of a reversal." "The combination of these macro factors increases the downside risks, and suggests that more Defensive trading should be appropriate," he added.
Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic,
The recent stock slump was just the start of a correction, according to JPMorgan. Investors are too complacent with some risks, and inflation and geopolitics could hurt the market. AdvertisementHe pointed out that investors scrambled to dial down risk amid rising inflation fears and worsening geopolitical risks, which added to the slump in recent weeks. The hotter-than-expected CPI print of 3.5% year-over-year in March signals that recent inflation surprises in the US aren't just noise. AdvertisementSince January, the two-year Treasury yield has surged from 4.2% to 4.9%, matching levels seen last August.
Persons: , Stocks, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Israel didn't Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Service, Treasury Locations: Israel
U.S. crude oil and global benchmark Brent finished out the week about 3% lower, despite the fact that Iran and Israel traded direct strikes against each other's territory for the first time. Fears that oil prices could shoot to $100 a barrel or above did not materialize. The market has essentially erased the risk premium associated with the Iran-Israel tensions after traders bid up prices last week on war fears. "These skirmishes did not impress the oil markets, which believe that no disruption to oil flows will occur." Papic said a sustained war between Israel and Iran is difficult to imagine and may even be practically impossible.
Persons: Ali Mohammadi, Israel, Manish Raj, John Kilduff, Marko Papic, Papic, Brent, Kilduff, CNBC's Organizations: Persian Gulf, Bloomberg, Getty, Brent, Israel's, Israel, Traders, Velandara Energy Partners, Again, International Atomic Energy Agency, Clocktower Locations: Bandar Abbas, Iran, Israel, U.S, Damascus, Syria, Tehran
The recent retreat in the stock market has made many worried about a deeper correction. Lingering inflation concerns, rising Treasury yields and a shifting outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy prompted a market pullback, with the S & P 500 almost 4% off its 52-week high as of Tuesday. A correction is defined as a 10% decline in one of the major U.S. stock indexes, typically the S & P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average, from a recent 52-week high close. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 More to go? The heightened geopolitical risk led U.K. investment bank Liberum Capital to call for oil to surge to $100 and a stock market correction as big as 10%.
Persons: Sam Stovall, it's, Stovall, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Federal Reserve, CFRA Research, Dow Jones Locations: U.S
Investors should stay overweight on commodities with a focus on energy to hedge against inflation as interest rate cuts will likely to come later than originally forecast, according to JPMorgan. Economic growth is also coming in stronger than expected with JPMorgan revising global growth upward by 0.5% in the first half of this year. "However, ongoing growth resilience and sticky inflation raise the odds of fewer cuts," Kolanovic cautioned clients. Kolanovic advised investors to stay overweight on commodities with a focus on energy as oil prices rally. The U.S., however, could tap the strategic petroleum reserve as a countermeasure if the situation escalates and deteriorates further, according to JPMorgan.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Inflation, Kolanovic, Brent Organizations: JPMorgan, Reserve, Russia Locations: U.S, Western Europe, Ukraine, Russia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailClocktower's Marko Papic foresees favorable entry into Chinese equities later this yearMarko Papic, Clocktower Group chief strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss whether new leadership in China's securities regulator will move markets, concerns around Chinese credit habits, and more.
Persons: Clocktower's Marko Papic, Marko Papic Organizations: Clocktower Group
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is at a similar 'fork in the road' as Western economies were in 2010-2011, strategist saysMarko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, discusses the outlook for China's economy as the country plans new regulations concerning market access and cross-border data flows.
Persons: Marko Papic Organizations: China, Clocktower Group
"In our mind, these debt-funded bitcoin purchases add froth to the current crypto rally by raising the risk of severe deleveraging in a potential downturn in the future," he added. MicroStrategy raised $604 million from the sale of converts on March 18, and another $800 million on March 8 . The latest purchases mark an acceleration from the fourth quarter pace, when MicroStrategy bought more than $1 billion of bitcoin. Originally launched as an enterprise business software company, Microstrategy has been buying bitcoin and holding them on its balance sheet since 2020. It largely trades as a proxy for the price of bitcoin, and in February of this year leaned into that, rebranding itself a Bitcoin development company.
Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, MicroStrategy, Microstrategy, Kolanovic, bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Momentum Locations: bitcoin, cryptocurrencies
JPMorgan is sticking to its bearish thesis amid a more optimistic outlook on Wall Street, saying investors are ignoring key market risks. The Wall Street firm is an outlier among the major banks when it comes to year-end forecasts. As of Monday's close, JPMorgan expects the S & P 500 will tumble more than 17% to its 2024 target of 4,200, according to CNBC's market strategist survey . The S & P 500 has repeatedly notched all-time highs on the back of the artificial intelligence trade. The AI beneficiary, which has been a major driver for the S & P 500's gains this year, could drag the benchmark should it start to sell off.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Kolanovic, NVDA Organizations: JPMorgan, Bank, America's, Nvidia Locations: Gaza, Ukraine
Stellar prices for gold have also stolen investor attention, with the precious metal scaling a new record of over $2,100. The record-breaking numbers for markets, however, haven't stopped some investors from worrying about three key issues. Inflation resurgenceAfter months of cooling, U.S inflation is proving itself to be more stubborn than experts had predicted. That's despite the Federal Reserve embarking on an aggressive monetary policy campaign over the past year, in a bid to tame consumer price pressures from their 40-year highs. Ariel Investments' Vice Chair Charlie Bobrinskoy told CNBC markets are not focused on China's residential real estate problems.
Persons: Michael M, haven't, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Mark Zandi's, Mark Zandi, Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, Doom, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Mohamed El, Erian, Ariel, Charlie Bobrinskoy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Federal, stoke, Allianz, Bloomberg, CNBC, El, Ariel Investments Locations: New York City, U.S, China
The soaring price of bitcoin could delay the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates, according to JPMorgan. The bank said signs of froth in risk assets like bitcoin could lead to higher for longer interest rates. AdvertisementThe record rally in bitcoin could lead the Federal Reserve to delay its planned interest rate cuts later this year, according to JPMorgan. That froth could ultimately drive the Fed to hold off on its planned interest rate cuts, which are often stimulative for risk assets, as it could unleash another round of inflation. "This may keep monetary policy higher for longer, as premature rate cutting risks further inflating asset prices or causing another leg up in inflation," Kolanovic said.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Christopher Waller Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Locations: bitcoin
The war in Ukraine in 12 key moments
  + stars: | 2024-02-24 | by ( Sophie Tanno | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +13 min
We’ve been taking a look at some of the most significant moments of the war so far. Putin’s announcement signaled the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has so far cost the lives of over 10,300 civilians, according to the United Nations. May 20, 2023: Russia takes control of BakhmutUkrainian army medics treat wounded soldiers at a stabilisation point near Bakhmut frontline. June 2023: Ukraine counteroffensiveUkrainian soldiers shoot rounds into Russian positions with an S60 anti-aircraft canon placed on a truck, outside Bakhmut. February 8, 2024: Ukraine military chief firedCommander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi during an event dedicated to Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24, 2023 in Kyiv.
Persons: Vladmir Putin, Putin, We’ve, , Volodymyr Zelensky, Pavel Klimov, , Marko Djurica, Russia's, Kolya Serga, Ed Ram, Sefa, Diego Herrera Carcedo, Moscow, Bakhmut, Wojciech Grzedzinski, Wagner, Prigozhin, Reuters Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia’s Wagner, Alexander Lukashenko, Mike Johnson, Samuel Corum, Ukraine Valerii, Yan Dobronosov, Zelensky, Ukraine’s, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, CNN’s Jennifer Hauser, Victoria Butenko, Daria Tarasova, Andrew Carey Organizations: CNN, NATO, Reuters, Ukraine, United Nations, Presidential Press, Snake, Social Media, Anadolu Agency, Concord, Putin, Getty, Republican, Armed Forces, Moscow Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia’s, Kyiv, United States, Russian, West, Dnipro, Hroza, Kharkiv, Bucha, Moskva, Crimea, Kherson, Ukrainian, Kremlin, Belgorod, Bakhmut, NATO, Robotyne, Mariupol, Washington , DC, Avdiivka
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Disco is backOthers have also started to compare today's market and the 1970s' "Nifty Fifty." AdvertisementJPMorgan's Chief Global Strategist Marko Kolanovic also said in a note on Wednesday that fiscal spending and inflation could resemble the 1970s landscape. Similar to the 1970s, there are currently 3 active geopolitical conflict zones – eastern Europe, Middle East, and South China Sea," Kolanovic said. Kolanovic included in his note the chart below, which shows the correlation between inflation and the performance of the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, Jeffrey Gundlach, Cole Smead, Smead, Sears Roebuck, Alphabet's, Nvidia's, Microsoft's, Jeremy Siegel, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, " Rosenberg, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Bank of America's, Treasury, Nasdaq, DoubleLine, Investments, Business, Morningstar, Microsoft, Nvidia, Xerox Locations: Europe, Middle East, South China
The stock market's strong start to 2024 could be short lived as the door for inflation to come back remains wide open, according to JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic. The S & P 500 is coming off its first weekly loss in six weeks. Year to date, the S & P 500 is up about 4% and reached an all-time high earlier this month above 5,000. "Optimism now is quite high and some describe the current regime as 'parabolic stock markets' and 'platinum-locks,'" he said. According to CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey , JPMorgan has an S & P 500 target of 4,200.
Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC Pro's, Survey, JPMorgan Locations: Japan, Germany, Europe
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