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Elevated stock market valuations suggest that returns for investors over the next decade could be meager, according to a Bernstein analysis. The Shiller PE or CAPE — that is, cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio — sets the market multiple based on average inflation-adjusted earnings over the course of a decade. "The Shiller PE has historically been a good predictor of very long-run 10-year forward equity returns," the Bernstein analysts wrote. However, the firm notes that investors shouldn't forego stock market exposure even if returns are likely to be lower. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said market valuations could be resetting as Big Tech companies powered by artificial intelligence dominate the market.
Persons: Bernstein, Sarah McCarthy, Mark Diver, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Organizations: Equity, Yardeni Research, Big Tech Locations: Tuesday's
Europe's largest listed company LVMH (LVMH.PA) produced stellar sales as China rebounded sharply after COVID restrictions ended. The robust corporate margins on show in the first quarter are seen coming under pressure later in the year. Based on Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates, STOXX 600 companies are expected to report net profit margins of 11.4% in the first quarter, up from 10.2% in the last quarter of 2022. But margins are seen declining to 10.5% in the third quarter, according to Refinitiv estimates. But there has not been a wave of companies revising earnings forecasts down, providing a cushion for European equities.
Europe's largest listed company LVMH (LVMH.PA) produced stellar sales as China rebounded sharply after COVID restrictions ended. The robust corporate margins on show in the first quarter are seen coming under pressure later in the year. Based on Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates, STOXX 600 companies are expected to report net profit margins of 11.4% in the first quarter, up from 10.2% in the last quarter of 2022. But margins are seen declining to 10.5% in the third quarter, according to Refinitiv estimates. But there has not been a wave of companies revising earnings forecasts down, providing a cushion for European equities.
A couple signs of stability for those worried about the banking crisis: regional bank stocks are mostly up this week, and inflows into money market funds have reversed. The Regional Bank ETF (KRE) is still 25% lower than it was in early March. Another sign of calm: money market inflows have stopped. Total assets in money market funds fell by $68.64 billion in the week ended April 19, according to the Investment Company Institute. From late February to early April, net assets of money market funds increased by about 10%, to $5.27 trillion.
European stocks are are having a good year so far. While the underperformance has been marginal, the outlook for U.S. stocks is decidedly more muted — Wall Street is still wary of a recession. European stocks are therefore worth a look in the near term, according to Bernstein, which expects more upside for them. Stock picks One of Bernstein's top plays is low leverage stocks, which the bank defines as stocks with a low net debt to equity ratio. Bank of America has a number of European picks with exposure to higher Chinese consumer spending and improving overall demand in light of China's reopening.
Disappointing earnings reports from some major tech stocks have caused large one-day declines this week, but investors in exchange-traded funds are still embracing the space as a whole. According to FactSet, the four biggest tech and consumer discretionary ETFs by assets have all seen positive inflows over the past week. Cumulatively, the 10 largest long-only funds have pulled in a net positive inflow of about $1.6 billion over the past week. The cash has rolled in despite big earnings misses, with Facebook parent Meta delivering arguably the ugliest performance. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has seen outflows of more than $66 million over the past week.
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