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Explainer-How the West Might Use Russia's Frozen Reserves
  + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( March | At P.M. | )   time to read: +5 min
Here are some of the ideas that have been suggested:CONFISCATIONSome international policymakers and lawyers say the immobilised Russian reserves can simply be confiscated under a doctrine of international law known as "countermeasures". Some in the bloc are still wary, though, and the European Central Bank has warned that claiming the trapped Russian assets should only be done in tandem with G7 powers. The bondholders would not have a contractual claim on the Kremlin’s frozen reserves. Ukraine would have a plausible way to collect on any damages awarded up to the value of the reserves. If Moscow refused to pay the damages, the allies could then use Russia’s frozen assets to pay off the loan.
Persons: Marc Jones, Lee Buchheit, Daleep Singh, Mark Heinrich Organizations: Marc Jones LONDON, Emergency Economic, U.S, European Central Bank Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Kuwait, United States, EU, Russian, Brussels, Belgium, U.S, Britain, China, Hong Kong, Dubai, Moscow
[1/2] Fishermen go out to sea after Ecuador's goverment expanded the protected marine area around the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador January 24, 2022. REUTERS/Santiago Arcos Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - A consortium of top multilateral development banks (MDB) and climate funds launched a global "task force" on Monday to scale up the number and size of 'debt-for-nature' swaps that countries can do. It will initially be led by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), lenders which between them have been involved in all the recent swaps, also including Barbados and Gabon. The Asian Development Bank, the African Development Bank, France's Agence Française de Développement, and the European Investment Bank will also be part of the task force, as well as the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility. Development banks play a particularly important role in debt-for-nature swaps because they provide the credit guarantees and/or political risk insurance that make them viable.
Persons: goverment, Santiago Arcos, Ilan Goldfajn, Scott Nathan, Marc Jones, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Santiago, Reuters, Inter, American Development Bank, U.S . International Development Finance Corporation, Asian Development Bank, African Development Bank, France's Agence Française, European Investment Bank, Climate Fund, Global, Thomson Locations: Ecuador, Belize, Barbados, Gabon
The task force creation is the most significant step so far in showing that the global club of multilateral lenders, which between them have trillions of dollars worth of firepower, will significantly ramp up their support for these deals. Four sources involved in the plans, which are expected to be announced at the COP summit's 'finance day' on Monday, say the group will formally be called the "Task Force on Sustainability-linked Sovereign Financing for Nature and Climate". It will initially be chaired by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and U.S. government's Development Finance Institution (DFC), said three of the sources with direct knowledge of the matter. Both lenders have been involved in all the recent swaps which have also included Barbados and Gabon. At their simplest, the swaps work by buying up a country's bonds, often at a discount, and then replacing them with cheaper eco-labelled ones that come with the special MDB guarantees.
Persons: Chico Mendes, Amanda Perobelli, MDBs, Marc Jones, Christina Fincher Organizations: Chico, Chico Mendes Institute for Biodiversity Conservation, Institute for, Environment, Resources, REUTERS, Reuters, Force, Sustainability, Nature, Inter, American Development Bank, government's Development Finance, World Bank, European Investment Bank, Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, ADB, Infrastructure Development Bank, Reuters Graphics, Conservancy, Thomson Locations: Pocone, Mato Grosso, Brazil, Belize, Barbados, Gabon, Beijing, U.S, Sri Lanka, Zambia, Kenya, Tanzania, Colombia, Ecuador
REUTERS/Steve Marcus/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Digital bank robberies and other cyber hacks will be a key risk for countries launching digital versions of their currencies, a new report from the Bank for International Settlements has warned. The BIS, dubbed the central bankers' central bank, has been overseeing much of the global development work on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and its report is its most comprehensive assessment yet of the challenges. A worst case scenario though would be a cyber hack that saw money stolen from what would effectively be a central bank's digital vault. "Cyber security is a key risk for CBDCs," the report published on Wednesday said, adding they would have "far-reaching implications" for the way central banks currently operate. China is trialling a prototype digital yuan with 200 million users, while the European Central Bank has just begun two years of advanced-stage exploratory work.
Persons: Steve Marcus, Marc Jones, Christina Fincher Organizations: Def Con, REUTERS, Bank for International, BIS, CBDCs, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Las Vegas , Nevada, U.S, Bahamas, Nigeria, China
IMF, World Bank and BIS in first 'tokenisation' collaboration
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( )   time to read: +2 min
Cecilia Skingsley attends a session on central bank digital currencies at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, U.S., October 14, 2022. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Three of the world's cornerstone institutions - the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Bank for International Settlements - are to work together for the first time to "tokenise" some of the financial instruments that underpin their global work, a BIS official said on Tuesday. The trio will also work with Switzerland's central bank which has been pioneering tokenisation, the process of turning conventional assets into uniquely coded "tokens" that can be used in faster new systems. Their collaboration will initially focus on simple but still paper-based processes such as when richer countries donate into some of the World Bank's funds to support poorer parts of the world. She also touched on the new breed of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), repeating calls for some global rules and technology standards so they can work across the world and with existing payment systems.
Persons: Cecilia Skingsley, Elizabeth Frantz, Skingsley, Marc Jones, Matthew Lewis Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Bank for International, BIS, Atlantic Council, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Washington, London
A logo of Amundi is seen outside the company headquarters in Paris, France, February 3, 2023. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, has started dipping its toe back into the Turkish lira it says having been impressed by the country's turnaround efforts since its mid-year elections. "We have started to cover our underweight in Turkish lira a few weeks ago," Sergei Strigo, Amundi's co-Head of Emerging Markets Fixed Income, told Reuters, referring to the process of taking a more positive view on the currency. "We are not yet ready to increase the allocation (in the lira) but it is definitely on our radar screen." Additional reporting by Karin Strohecker in London and Jonathan Spicer in Istanbul; editing by Elisa MartinuzziOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Sergei Strigo, Amundi's, Strigo, Karin Strohecker, Jonathan Spicer, Elisa Martinuzzi Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, Turkey, London, Istanbul
A logo of Amundi is seen outside the company headquarters in Paris, France, February 3, 2023. "We have started to cover our underweight in Turkish lira a few weeks ago," Strigo told Reuters, referring to the process of taking a more positive view on the currency. Amundi, while the first major fund to formally declare its shift, is not alone in testing the waters, according to other foreign investors and bankers. "It is probably the easiest way for now," Strigo said about the use of FX forwards to express that balance. With the bank having lifted rates to 40% from 8.5% since June, Amundi thinks another hike next month could finish the job.
Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Sergei Strigo, Amundi's, Strigo, Tayyip Erdogan, Amundi, Goldman Sachs, Erdogan, sceptics, Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, Marc Jones, Karin Strohecker, Jonathan Spicer, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Investment, JPMorgan, FX, Graphics, Central Bank Governor, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, Turkey, Turkish, New York, London, Istanbul
[1/2] International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva addresses the media on the fourth day of the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, in Marrakech, Morocco, October 12, 2023. "So that is to my mind the number one priority for this COP, is to recognise that business as usual has to be dropped." Several countries were also considering using their 2021 SDR allocation on a bilateral basis alongside IMF programmes, she added. While the current average price was now around $5 a ton, "clearly there is a long, long, long way to go", she said, citing a preference for carbon taxes but openness to trading systems, as seen in Europe, or U.S.-style standards and rebates. This is ongoing work at the fund," she said, citing ongoing talks with the World Bank on how it would work.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Susana Vera, Georgieva, it's, Andrea Shalal, Marc Jones, David Lawder, Alex Richardson Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, World Bank, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, Reuters, Growth Trust, Sustainability Trust, African Development Bank, Inter, American Development Bank, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, Dubai, Paris, Europe
While the euro zone has pledged to do "whatever it takes" and jointly issued debt for the first time during the pandemic, its debt load remains eye-watering. Scope assigns Italy a "stable" outlook, but "risks remain", Shen said, "given the weak growth and fiscal outlook". Reuters GraphicsNEXT CRISISThe ECB uses the best rating available from its approved agencies to determine a bond's collateral value when commercial banks borrow from it. Last week's Dutch election win by the far-right Geert Wilders could also have rating implications, Shen said. "Governance risks are a challenge in the longer run for one of the world’s remaining AAA-rated sovereigns...But the rating is not imminently at risk."
Persons: Yorgos, Moody's, Dennis Shen, Fitch, DBRS Morningstar, Shen, DBRS, bode, Geert Wilders, Marc Jones, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, AAA, European Central Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics NEXT, ECB, Thomson Locations: Athens, Italy, France, Berlin, U.S, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Rome, Canada, Dutch
In Hungary, central bank governor Gyorgy Matolcsy is under pressure from Viktor Orban's government to cut rates further ahead of local and European Parliament elections next year. Reuters GraphicsTANGIBLE BENEFITSA 2021 World Bank survey found that political meddling in central bank policy led to sustained periods of high inflation in emerging market economies such as Turkey and Argentina. "Attempts to bring the president of the NBP before the State Tribunal can be directly interpreted as an attack on the independence of the central bank," the spokesman said. How those premia evolve will depend partly on how politics in Poland and Hungary is perceived by investors to influence the central banks in the months to come. "Everything else being equal, the less independent the central bank, the more real yield you need to have to be compensated for the risk," said Arif Joshi at Lazard Asset Management.
Persons: Adam Glapinski, Gyorgy Matolcsy, Viktor Orban's, Donald Tusk's, Karen Vartapetov, Paul Gamble, Glapinski's, Glapinski, Marta Kightley, Orban, Peter Virovacz, Arif Joshi, Karol Badohal, Gergely, Mark John, Toby Chopra Organizations: WARSAW, Law and Justice, U.S . Federal Reserve, EU, Sovereign, Investor, Emerging, Fitch, Local, ING, Lazard Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Hungarian, Poland, Hungary, BUDAPEST, Europe, Turkey, Argentina, WARSAW
Take Five: Warming up this winter
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( )   time to read: +6 min
1\BUCK UP, IT'S DECEMBERThe dollar is heading for its weakest monthly performance for a year, with a loss so far of 2.7%. On Thursday, China releases official manufacturing PMI data, which last month showed an unexpected contraction, killing momentum for an economic recovery. COP28 gets underway in Dubai and securing an agreement on how to tackle global warming and, crucially, how to pay for it looks as difficult as ever for the near 200 countries and institutions attending. Reuters Graphics5\THE ECB'S BALANCING ACTEuro zone inflation data on Nov. 30 may well confirm a trend of price rises moderating. Policymakers remain wary of any hopes for rate cuts spilling over into increased bank lending and household spending, renewing inflationary pressures.
Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Amanda Cooper, it's, Joshua Roberts, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Christine Lagarde, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Vineet Sachdev, Prinz, Toby Chopra Organizations: BUCK, IT'S, Federal Reserve, Reuters, REUTERS, COP28, World Bank, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Dubai, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Washington , U.S, UAE
Stocks maintain November reign, oil hit by OPEC doubts
  + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Marc Jones | )   time to read: +5 min
Bull statues are placed in font of screens showing the Hang Seng stock index and stock prices outside Exchange Square, in Hong Kong, China, August 18, 2023. Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) is nearing a fresh high for 2023, with the S&P 500 and MSCI's all-country world index (.MIWD00000PUS) both up more than 8% this month alone. For MSCI world that is the best showing since November 2020 when markets got a major shot in the arm from COVID vaccine hopes. Germany's 10-year bund , the benchmark for the Europe, was fractionally higher on the day at 2.57% having touched 3% last month. Bitcoin fell by 0.77% on Thursday to $37,337 after it rose nearly 5% on Wednesday.
Persons: Tyrone Siu, Geert Wilders, Robert Alster, Viktor Orban, Wilders, Mark Rutte, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Changpeng Zhao, Marc Jones, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, ECB, Oil, Traders, Asset Management, European Union, Freedom Party, Labour, Green, People's Party for Freedom and Democracy, European, HK, Reuters, Treasury, UK Finance, OPEC, Thomson Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Europe, U.S, EU, Germany, Holland, Ukraine, Turkey, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Brent, Bitcoin
NAIROBI, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Kenya's President William Ruto said on Thursday the government was poised to privatise 35 state companies after enacting a law last month to guide the process. Kenya last privatised a state-owned company in 2008 with an initial public offering (IPO) for 25% of the shares in telecommunications firm Safaricom (SCOM.NR). "We have identified the first 35 companies that we are going to offer to the private sector. Kenya's President William Ruto speaks during the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Summit at United Nations headquarters in New York City, New York, U.S., September 18, 2023. "If well harnessed, stock exchanges can be the engine that transforms Africa into a global economic powerhouse and financial centre of the world," the president said.
Persons: William Ruto, Ruto, Njuguna Ndung'u, Ndung'u, Caitlin Ochs, Bourses, Thapelo, Ducan Miriri, Marc Jones, Aaron Ross, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: African, Nairobi . Finance, Reuters, Sustainable, United Nations, REUTERS, Botswana Stock Exchange, Bharti Airtel, Thomson Locations: NAIROBI, Kenya, Nairobi, New York City , New York, U.S, Africa, Uganda, London
Stocks maintain November reign, oil nagged by OPEC doubts
  + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Marc Jones | )   time to read: +5 min
[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, November 22, 2023. Traders were getting their moves in despite the annual U.S. Thanksgiving holiday scything volumes but there was plenty to keep them busy while they did it. Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) is nearing a fresh high for 2023 and both it and MSCI's all-country world index (.MIWD00000PUS) are both up more than 8% this month alone. For the MSCI world index, that is the best showing since November 2020 when COVID-19 vaccine hopes were driving markets wild. Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Christina Fincher and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Geert Wilders, Robert Alster, Viktor Orban, Wilders, Mark Rutte, Tayyip Erdogan, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Changpeng Zhao, Marc Jones, Christina Fincher, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, PMI, ECB, Oil, OPEC, Traders, Asset Management, Freedom Party, Labour, Green, People's Party for Freedom and Democracy, European, U.S, HK, Reuters, Europe, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, U.S, European, France, Holland, Ukraine, Asia, Pacific, Japan, COVID, Brent, Bitcoin
Zambia's troubled debt restructuring efforts
  + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( )   time to read: +3 min
REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Zambia's debt restructuring has been a complex, three-year process, which suffered a serious setback on Monday when bilateral creditors, including China, effectively ordered it secure more debt relief from international funds that hold its sovereign bonds. 2020: The country requests to have its debt payments frozen under the G20-led Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) due to COVID-19. In May, Zambian President Edgar Lungu’s government hires French firm Lazard to advise on restructuring the cash-strapped southern African nation’s $11 billion worth of foreign debts. 2022: Negotiations continue with bondholders for debt relief and restructuring deals. Angry bondholders say the OCC is demanding debt relief from them that is materially higher than either Zambia's government or the International Monetary Fund deem necessary.
Persons: Yuri Gripas, Edgar Lungu’s, Lazard, Lungu’s, Hakainde Hichilema, Marc Jones, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Monetary Fund, REUTERS, Zambian, China, Export, Import Bank of China, OCC, International, Fund, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, China, Zambia
Milei's dollar plans, however, put pressure on the embattled peso currency, which is held in check by strict capital controls. The official exchange rate is near 350 per dollar, but dollars trade well over twice that in popular parallel markets. Milei said in the run-up to the election he wanted to ditch the peso altogether in favour of the dollar. Milei had also heavily criticised China and Brazil in the runup to the elections, two of Argentina's main trading partners. China said on Tuesday it would be a "serious mistake" if Milei opted to cut ties between the two countries.
Persons: dollarization, Javier Milei, Miel, Milei, Morgan Stanley's, Viktor Szabo, Banks, Banks Grupo Supervielle, Marc Jones, Elizabeth Howcroft, Mayur Kamdar, Karin Strohecker, Bernadette Baum, Emelia Organizations: Argentina, Abrdn, U.S ., Banks Grupo, Banco, Banco BBVA Argentina, Grupo Financiero, Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, MERV, London, Argentina, U.S, Grupo Financiero Galicia, China, Brazil
IMF, China ready to work with new Argentina leader Milei
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( )   time to read: +1 min
[1/2] Argentine president-elect Javier Milei waves to his supporters after winning Argentina's runoff presidential election, in Buenos Aires, Argentina November 19, 2023. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, and a spokesperson for China's foreign ministry said on Monday they were ready to work with Argentina's president-elect Javier Milei. Argentina elected right-wing libertarian Javier Milei as its new president on Sunday, rolling the dice on an outsider with radical views to fix an economy battered by triple-digit inflation, a looming recession and rising poverty. The IMF has a $44 billion loan program with Argentina. Reporting by Karin Strohecker and Liz Lee in Beijing; editing by Marc Jones and Mark HeinrichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Javier Milei, Agustin Marcarian, Georgieva, Mao Ning, Karin Strohecker, Liz Lee, Marc Jones, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: Argentine, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, IMF, South, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, China, Beijing
The IMF approved a tweaked deal, but official creditors again rejected it, Zambia said. The country's External Bondholder Steering Committee said it was deeply concerned with recent developments and that its latest offer would provide more debt relief than official creditors on a net present value basis, as well as a principal haircut when official creditors were offering none. The Common Framework has been severely criticised, as it is yet to provide any countries with debt relief. "If the OCC does not row back, sovereign debt restructuring would have taken a huge step backwards," said a second source familiar with the situation. Ghana, which is also undergoing Common Framework debt treatment, saw its international bonds slump up to 1.4 cents on the dollar .
Persons: Yuri Gripas, Rachel Savage, Karin Strohecker, Bhargav Acharya, Marc Jones, Libby George, Alexander Winning, William Maclean, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Monetary Fund, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, IMF, OCC, Government, Paris Club, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Zambia Zambia, Ghana, Sri Lanka, JOHANNESBURG, Zambia, China, Base, France, India, London
Iraq becomes EBRD shareholder, Senegal and Ghana apply to join
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( )   time to read: +1 min
People walk past the new headquarters of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in Canary Wharf, London, Britain, September 14, 2023. REUTERS/Alishia Abodunde/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Iraq has become the 74th member of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the multilateral lender said on Thursday, while Ghana and Senegal have also applied to join. Iraq first submitted its request to join the bank in 2018, and its shareholder status enables it to apply to become a recipient economy, which would unlock EBRD finance and policy support. "When the time comes, we are looking forward to starting work in Iraq, applying our expertise to developing its economy," EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso said in a statement. Renaud-Basso told Reuters that Senegal and Ghana had submitted applications to join the bank in the latest sign of its push into sub-Saharan Africa.
Persons: Alishia, Odile Renaud, Basso, Renaud, Libby George, Marc Jones, Christina Fincher Organizations: European Bank for Reconstruction, REUTERS, Reuters, Ukraine, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, Iraq, Ghana, Senegal, Saharan Africa, Benin, Ivory Coast, Europe, East, North Africa, Asia
JPMorgan ratchets up Israel's 2024 budget deficit forecast
  + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( )   time to read: 1 min
LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza will lead to a larger-than- expected budget deficit next year, investment bank JPMorgan said on Wednesday, adding that the cost of the conflict would also result in a significant jump in debt issuance. The bank's analysts said they now expected the government's budget deficit to widen to around 4.5% of GDP in 2023 and 2024 versus their previous forecasts of a 4.5% deficit in 2023 but a lower 2.9% deficit in 2024. They added that while the pressures would impact investor appetite for Israel's bonds, they did not expect demand to evaporate. The bar for the country's central bank to intervene in the bond market was also high, they said. Reporting by Marc Jones, editing by Karin StroheckerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Marc Jones, Karin Strohecker Organizations: JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Gaza
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - The head of the International Monetary Fund has urged countries to make a more proactive push to develop central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Eleven countries, including a number in the Caribbean, and Nigeria, have already launched CBDCs. Around 120 others are exploring them, although progress and approaches differ widely and a few have even abandoned the idea altogether. Georgieva said that with technology advancing so rapidly, countries needed to push ahead with development now to avoid getting caught out in future.
Persons: Yuri Gripas, Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva, Marc Jones, Paul Simao Organizations: Monetary Fund, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Caribbean, Nigeria, Singapore
JOHANNESBURG/LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Zambia's official creditors including China rejected a deal the country struck with its international bondholders because they believed its "base case" scenario did not deliver debt relief comparable to what they offered in a separate deal, two sources familiar with the talks said. Official creditors said the agreement in principle, which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also rejected, did not comply with "Comparability of Treatment", said the sources, who declined to be identified as the discussions are private. Both bondholders and official creditors had proposed extending the maturity of Zambia's debt and that it be paid back quicker if the country's economy performs better than expected. The bondholder deal proposed they would be paid more than $700 million before 2026 in the base case, while official creditors had offered a longer three-year grace period. Bondholders would need to offer more debt relief in the base case scenario for the deal to be acceptable to official creditors and the IMF, one of the sources said.
Persons: Rachel Savage, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, Paris Club, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: JOHANNESBURG, LONDON, China, Zambia
LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Analysts at investment bank UBS have predicted that emerging market (EM) assets are likely to have a difficult start to 2024 before picking up and finishing the year with respectable gains. The Switzerland-based bank's outlook forecast that EM fixed income would return 8-10% next year, EM equities 6-8% and 1-3% for spot FX gains, with "most returns backloaded". "With risk premia now highly compressed, we think even a mild U.S. recession can first see EM assets pull back. So be careful what you wish for," the bank's report said. Reporting by Marc Jones, Editing by Louise HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Marc Jones, Louise Heavens Organizations: UBS, FX, Thomson Locations: Switzerland
Bets on oil prices moving up from here are at their highest level since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, CME options market volatility data shows. Average daily volumes in energy options of the CME exchange overall are the highest since an all-time record in 2018. "The aftermath of the attacks and rising Middle East tensions did not impact oil prices as many investors expected, including ourselves," Unigestion multi-asset portfolio manager Sandrine Perret said. Reuters Graphics3/ DEFENCE STOCKSA gauge of defence stocks compiled by index provider MarketVector (.MVDEF) is 8% higher in the four weeks since the conflict began. It's also near eight-year highs versus the euro and therefore another asset class attracting questions about how it would perform if Middle East tensions are resolved.
Persons: Abdel Hadi Ramahi, Israel, Sandrine Perret, Derek Sammann, Gold, Jeff, Mikhail Zverev, Ron Temple, It's, Francesca Fornasari, Fornasari, Elisa Belgacem, Brent, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, David Evans Organizations: United Arab Emirates, REUTERS, U.S White, Aegon, Reuters, Global, Defence, Lazard Asset Management, Swiss, Insight Investment, Generali Investments, Thomson Locations: Dubai, United Arab, Hamas, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, Jordan, Egypt, China, Taiwan, Europe
[1/2] The Bank of Israel building is seen in Jerusalem June 16, 2020. Israel's central bank has played its part too with a flurry of support measures, and has stayed away from rate cuts. At the outset of the war, markets were stunned. "The Bank of Israel took very aggressive action," said Gil Moshe, the head of markets at the Israel unit of U.S. bank Citi. Looking to next year, Shmuel Katzavian, a strategist at Israel's Discount Bank, expects the shekel to continue to strengthen.
Persons: Ronen, Israel's, Yaniv Pagot, Amir Yaron, Geoff Yu, Gil Moshe, Pagot, Shmuel Katzavian, Steven Scheer, Marc Jones, Jan Harvey Organizations: Bank of, REUTERS, Rights, Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, BNY Mellon, Reuters Graphics, Israel, Citi, Israel's Discount Bank, Thomson Locations: Bank of Israel, Jerusalem, Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, Israel's, Israel, U.S, London
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