The risk of a revival in inflation, last measured at 3.8%, has led most to forecast now is not the time for the central bank to strongly signal they are done raising rates.
Twenty-nine of 32 economists polled Oct. 13-20 expect no change to the central bank's 5.00% overnight rate (CABOCR=ECI), with the remaining three expecting a 25 basis point hike.
While most are confident the central bank is done hiking, a significant minority of economists who answered an additional question, 8 of 18, said the risk of the BoC raising rates at least once more is "high".
Still, a two-thirds majority, 20 of 30, see the BoC cutting its overnight rate at least once before end-June 2024.
The distribution of where economists saw the overnight rate by end-June was split many ways.
Persons:
Randall Bartlett, underscoring, Tony Stillo, Milounee Purohit, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Jonathan Oatis
Organizations:
Bank of Canada, BoC, Desjardins, U.S . Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Bank, Thomson
Locations:
BENGALURU, Canada