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UBS doesn't see the Federal Reserve embarking on rate cuts until September — and that means now is the time to snap up tax-free municipal bonds. Bond yields and prices move inversely, so a decline in rates will come with price appreciation for the underlying issues. "Against that backdrop, we believe that yields on quality municipal bonds look attractive at current levels," wrote UBS Wealth Management senior municipal bond strategist Kathleen McNamara in a report last week. The kicker of tax-free income Muni bonds are generally backed by the full faith and credit of the issuer, which makes them less of a default risk compared with corporates. Large diversified municipal bond funds can be cheap, but state-focused funds tend to be a little more costly.
Persons: Kathleen McNamara, McNamara, FKTFX Organizations: UBS, Federal, UBS Wealth Management, Bond, SEC, Vanguard California, Franklin, Franklin California Tax, Income Fund, Muni Bond ETF, Vanguard New Locations: There's, New York , California, New Jersey, California, Franklin California
Such a move would bode well for fixed income, including municipal bonds. Recent data from Columbia Threadneedle Investments and Bloomberg, shows that muni bonds can see a jump in cumulative tax-equivalent returns once the Fed begins cutting rates. When taking into account the tax savings, muni bond investors don't have to take that much risk to capture attractive yields. Rising flows and higher yields Investors have been pouring money into muni bond funds lately. BlackRock's iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) , meanwhile, has seen an exodus of more than $1 billion in flows this year, but it experienced inflows of $150.9 million in the past week.
Persons: Jerome Powell, bode, munis, Catherine Stienstra, BlackRock's, Duane McAllister, Baird Organizations: Federal Reserve, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Bloomberg, York Life Investments, Columbia, Bond, Muni Bond ETF, Baird Asset Management, AAA, BBB Locations: Columbia
Expect to work a little harder for those fixed income returns in the new year. As a result, it may be time to start unwinding those big cash positions and adopt a longer-term mentality for fixed income investments. A runup in bond yields is accompanied by a decline in prices, and the two move inversely to one another. The sector "remains well positioned to maintain its high credit quality, driven by solid state credit quality and strong state financial support, despite soft enrollment trends," analyst Kathleen McNamara wrote last week. Consider dollar cost averaging into those longer-dated positions, incrementally building up exposure to intermediate duration bonds.
Persons: Jerome Powell, it's, Kathy Jones, Shannon Saccocia, Jones, Nicholos Venditti, Kathleen McNamara, Schwab's Jones, Barry McAlinden, Michael Bloom Organizations: Schwab Center, Financial Research, Bond, SEC, Muni Bond ETF, Allspring Global Investments, UBS
Investors who hope to generate portfolio income while recession fears ramp higher can seek some safety in municipal bonds. Wells Fargo Investment Institute recently issued its fixed income guidance for 2024, forecasting "higher for longer" rates across the yield curve as the Federal Reserve remains vigilant to bring down inflation. Municipal bonds offer a combination of characteristics that appeal to investors: General obligation bonds are backed by the revenue of the municipality issuing them. "Going into a slowdown, you anticipate rates to fall," said Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The top marginal income tax rate is 13.3% in California and well over 10% in New York and New Jersey.
Persons: Brian Rehling, Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton, Johnston Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Federal Reserve, Fargo Investment Institute, AAA, Muni Bond ETF, Vanguard, Bond, Fed, New York Life Investments, Investors, York State, Metropolitan Transportation Authority Locations: Wells Fargo, Fargo, New, California, New York, New Jersey, York
Investors in high-tax locales can protect some of their portfolio income from steep levies by adding state-specific municipal bond funds to their fixed-income roster. "In the muni bond fund market, we're seeing yields higher than they have been in more than a decade," said Amy Arnott, portfolio strategist for Morningstar Research Services. That's because while muni bond income is generally free of federal taxes, it can also avoid state levies if the investor resides in the state where the bond was issued. That's where state-specific muni bond funds come into the picture. See below for a chart of 10 large state-focused muni bond funds.
Persons: Bonds, haven't, Amy Arnott, Dan Herron, Herron, Arnott, CNBC's Gabriel Cortes Organizations: Federal Reserve, Muni Bond ETF, Morningstar Research Services, Vanguard, SEC, Vanguard New, CPA, Wealth Advisors, muni Locations: California, New York, Massachusetts, Ohio, Jersey
Tax-exempt income and relative safety are on sale for investors who are sniffing around municipal bonds. Tax-exempt income Interest income from municipal bonds is exempt from federal income tax — and can avoid state and local levies, too, if an investor and the bond issuer are in the same jurisdiction. This feature makes munis especially attractive to high-income investors in the 32% marginal federal income tax bracket and higher. Investors weighing a tax-exempt municipal bond against a corporate bond would do well to check out the tax equivalent yield. Schwab's Howard noted that the 5- to 7-year part of the municipal bond curve is favorable.
Persons: MUB, Nathan Will, Will, it's, Cooper Howard, Schwab's Howard, Shannon Saccocia Organizations: Federal Reserve, Muni Bond ETF, Vanguard, AAA, Bond, ., New York Life Investments, Schwab Center, Financial Research Locations: munis, muni
"People see [municipal bonds] as a defensive position for two reasons," said Shannon Saccocia, chief investment officer at NB Private Wealth. "Historically, municipal bonds have had low default rates," wrote Jared Woodard, investment and exchange-traded fund strategist at Bank of America, in a June 12 report. For instance, there's the Vanguard California Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares (VCAIX) and the Nuveen New York Quality Municipal Income Fund (NAN) . In select situations, some advisors are recommending closed-end municipal bond funds. Closed-end muni bond funds trading at a deep discount include the BNY Mellon Municipal Income (DMF) and the MFS High Income Municipal (CXE) .
Persons: Shannon Saccocia, Jerome Powell, Jared Woodard, Nisha Patel, Patel, Paul Winter Organizations: Bank of America, Bond, Muni Bond ETF, Vanguard, Income Fund, Five, BNY, Income Locations: York, BNY Mellon
The 60/40 portfolio doesn't work anymore, according to Bank of America. If the 60/40 portfolio was on life support last year, this year its demise is now "confirmed," Woodard wrote. Bonds require 40% of the assets in a 60/40 portfolio but have delivered only 25% of the returns since 1920, he noted. Weak bond returns will lead to "another lost decade" for the 60/40 portfolio, in Woodard's words. For income, Bank of America's researchers unveiled a strategy called "dynamic prudent yield" that promises to beat bond indexes while carrying less risk.
Persons: Bonds, Jared Woodard, Woodard, Woodward, Schwab Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, RSP, Vanguard, Energy, P Metals, Mining, Uranium, Research, Government Bond ETF, First Trust, Income, Muni Bond ETF, Muni, Blackstone Senior Loan, of America, Bond, SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF, US, iShares, Securities ETF, VanEck Preferred Securities, Financials, Bloomberg, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury
But for investors worried that more Fed rate hikes in the coming months could tip the economy into recession, fixed income might be a more attractive bet. "Municipal bond issuers appear well poised to weather a possible recession in 2023/24. Bank of America has the equivalent of a buy rating on several municipal bond ETFs, including JPMorgan Ultra-Short Municipal Income ETF (JMST) and the iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) . Some large funds that could fit that description include the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) , the Schwab Intermediate-Term US Treasury ETF (SCHR) and the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT). The actively managed Flexible Income ETF (BINC) launched in May and has about $76 million in assets so far, according to FactSet.
Persons: Michelle Cluver, Andrew Slimmon, Slimmon, Russell, Jared Woodard, Woodard, Cluver, Rick Rieder Organizations: Federal, Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, RSP, Nasdaq, Bank of America, JPMorgan Ultra, Muni Bond ETF, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury, BlackRock
The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares ETF (SOXS) was one of the top 10 ETFs for inflows over the past week, pulling in more than $400 million, according to FactSet. Meanwhile, more than $500 million were pulled out of the Direxion's Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL) , the fourth-most outflows over the past week. As a result, their flows can reverse quickly and are not necessarily a good measure of long-term outlook for chip stocks. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) , which would be better suited to long-term investors, saw inflows of less than $40 million this week, a slowdown from prior weeks. Here are the top five ETFs by inflows over the past week.
Persons: Aswath Damodaran, Russell Organizations: A.I, Nvidia, Philadelphia Semiconductor, NYU, CNBC, Daily Semiconductor, VanEck Semiconductor, Bond
TOKYO, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (8306.T) said on Thursday it would buy the Philippines and Indonesian units of Dutch consumer finance company Home Credit BV (HC) for about 596 million euros ($621 million). The acquisitions will be made through main Mitsubishi UFJ banking arm MUFG Bank, Thai unit Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY) (BAY.BK), and Indonesian unit Adira Dinamika Multi Finance (ADMF), with the deal to be completed within 2023, the company said. PPF, which had been looking at selling or taking on partners in some markets for the HC business, said in a statement it was the right time to pass the baton. A Mitsubishi UFJ executive said in a briefing that the lender would explore further acquisition opportunities in Southeast Asia. MUFG Bank will hold 25% of HC Philippines, and ADMF will hold 10% of HC Indonesia shares.
TOKYO, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (8306.T) said on Thursday it would buy the Philippines and Indonesian units of Dutch consumer finance company Home Credit Group BV for about 596 million euros ($621 million). The acquisitions will be made through Japanese unit MUFG Bank, Thai unit Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY) (BAY.BK), and Indonesian unit Adira Dinamika Multi Finance (ADMF), with the deal to be completed within 2023, the company said. Home Credit (HC) is controlled by the Czech Republic's biggest investment group, PPF, which was founded by late billionaire Petr Kellner. read moreAfter the completion of the deal, Bank of Ayudhya will hold 75% of the shares of HC Philippines and 75% of the shares of HC Indonesia. MUFG Bank will hold 25% of HC Philippines, and ADMF will hold 10% of HC Indonesia shares.
In a recession, investors seek safe-haven assets like high-quality bonds, and the increased demand for them lifts their prices. "Bond investors are facing a unique win-win scenario right now," Saperstein said in a memo on Monday. Bond yields are expected by many to continue rising in the months ahead as the Fed continues on its hawkish path. Saperstein's preferred area of the bond market is municipal bonds, which are issued by public entities like cities or states. We're starting to take advantage of this higher-rate environment by 'opting-in' and purchasing longer dated, high-grade municipal bonds within client portfolios," he said.
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