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☆ The Fed may have no choice but to tip the US into recession, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed might have to self-induce a recession if it wants to reach its target inflation rate, a BMO strategist said. Ian Lyngen told Bloomberg TV that the Fed might find its current monetary policy to not be restrictive enough. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe latest inflation report not only sent bond yields soaring and stocks plunging, it may also have put the US back on track for a recession, one economist told Bloomberg TV on Thursday.

Persons: Ian Lyngen, — Organizations: BMO, Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve, Federal, BMO Capital Markets, Business

☆ The 'supercore' inflation measure shows Fed may have a real problem on its hands
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Eric Baradat | AFP | Getty ImagesA hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading rattled markets Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading. Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Today, he added, the picture is more complicated because some of the most stubborn components of services inflation are household necessities like car and housing insurance as well as property taxes. Sticky inflation problem

Persons: Jerome Powell, Eric Baradat, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick, Dow Jones, Stephen Stanley, Ian Lyngen, we're Organizations: AFP, Getty, O'Brien & Associates, Dow, Santander U.S, Wall, CPI, BMO Capital Markets, Fed Locations: Washington ,

☆ Gauging the risk of contagion from NYCB and commercial real estate woes
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The latest concern threatening regional banks started on Jan. 31, when New York Community Bancorp. reported unexpected fourth quarter loss and a large loan loss reserve against futures losses, due in part to the bank's commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. One worry is that the NYCB credit downgrade could spur ratings agencies to take a closer look at other banks, or cause clients to again pull deposits out of regional banks. Determining exactly how unique NYCB's exposure to commercial real estate is will be a key focus for investors and analysts in coming weeks. A note on Wednesday from Wolfe Research analysts focused on banks and commercial real estate showed that regional banks have in general reduced their commercial real estate exposure over the past 15 years.

Persons: NYCB, Ian Lyngen, hasn't, Lyngen, D.A, Davidson, Peter Winter, Winter, Macrae Sykes, Banks, They're, Sykes, Wells Fargo, Jerome Powell, Bond, Tom Fitzpatrick, RJ O'Brien, Fitzpatrick, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Investors, New York Community Bancorp, Moody's, Street, Silicon Valley Bank, BMO, Treasury, Wolfe Research, UBS, Gabelli, CNBC Locations: Silicon, Wells

☆ The Fed will 'underperform' what the market is expecting in rate cuts, says BMO's Ian Lyngen
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will 'underperform' what the market is expecting in rate cuts, says BMO's Ian LyngenIan Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets head of U.S. rates strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, Treasury yields, the Fed's inflation fight, when investors can expect rate cuts from the central bank, and more.

Persons: Ian Lyngen Ian Lyngen Organizations: BMO Capital Markets

☆ Tromsø golf club: The world’s northernmost golf course
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Jack Bantock | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Golf plays on a different axis in the “Land of the Midnight Sun,” and nowhere is that difference more pronounced than at Tromsø golf club, the world’s northernmost 18-hole golf course. Arguably though, it’s overhead where Tromsø golf club really separates itself. It’s a one-of-a-kind experience that has helped drive what Sonsteby has noted as an increased appetite for golf in the region, with Tromsø golf club adding 65 new members to its 470 total membership this year alone. “Now we see the massive increase that Viktor and Suzann have created in golf in this country,” Stephen Newey, head pro at Oslo Golf Club and Pettersen’s junior coach, told CNN. “The kids want to play golf – ‘I want to be like Viktor, I want to be like Suzann,’ and they can.”

Persons: Bjorn Sonsteby’s, ” Sonsteby, “, ‘, Cam Bauer, Sonsteby, Jan Morten Bjoernbakk, Viktor, Viktor Hovland, Hovland, Ryder, Richard Heathcote, Suzann Pettersen, Suzann, ” Stephen Newey, ” Organizations: CNN, Sun, Norway –, Lights, PGA, Getty, Oslo Golf, Pettersen’s Locations: Norwegian, “, Tromsø, Norway, Oslo, Rome

Treasury yields rose on Thursday, with the 10-year rate pushing closer to the key 5% level as investors awaited remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped 6 basis points to 4.96%. It had touched as high as 4.98% earlier in the session, trading at levels last seen in 2007 after first crossing the 4.9% mark on Wednesday. The 2-year Treasury yield was last 2 basis points higher at 5.23%, hovering at levels last seen in 2006. A New York Fed calculation indicates that the term premium is around its highest level since May 2021.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Ian Lyngen, Benjamin Jeffery Organizations: Federal, Treasury, BMO, Fed, New Locations: New York

☆ Spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries at deepest inversion since '81
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The closely-watched spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields hit the widest since 1981 at -109.50 in early trade, a deeper inversion than in March during the U.S. regional banking crisis. A yield curve inversion - in which shorter-dated Treasuries trade at higher yields than longer-dated securities - has been a reliable signal of upcoming recessions. The spread between 2 and 10-year Treasuries has been inverted since last July. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.6 basis points at 4.913% in morning trading Monday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.2 basis points to 3.831%.

Persons: Paul Volcker, Ian Lyngen, Treasuries, Alden Bentley, Philippa Fletcher, Susan Fenton Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Fed, BMO, San Francisco Fed, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S

☆ S&P 500 futures and Treasury yields gain on Friday as March labor report shows resilient economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S&P 500 futures and Treasury yields increased on Friday during a holiday-shortened trading session after the March jobs report showed a resilient economy and moderate inflation. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial average gained 55 points. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points to 3.93%. The 10-year Treasury yield added 8 basis points to 3.37%. Friday's jobs report runs counter to that weak data and is likely to divide investors.

☆ Earnings could keep the market on edge in week ahead as investors wait for Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

I do think that will happen even more in the week ahead as the Fed is in a blackout period. S & P Global PMI data is released for both services and manufacturing Tuesday. "The market continues to think the Fed does not have to administer as much medicine as the Fed tells us they plan to. Earnings, earnings, earnings Stocks were lower in the past week, with the S & P 500 off by 1.8%. "It's a mild earnings recession, but it's an earnings recession.

☆ Stocks gain, yields fall after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Still, a separate reading on the labor market showed weekly initial jobless claims came in at 205,000, below expectations of 215,000. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a key sign of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% before rebounding. "The fact that we have seen core inflation decelerate to 5.7% year-over-year, from 6% in November, reinforces the peak inflation argument." Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

☆ VIEW U.S. consumer prices fall in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - U.S consumer prices unexpectedly fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December amid declining prices for gasoline and other goods, suggesting that inflation was now on a sustained downward trend. The consumer price index dipped 0.1% last month after gaining 0.1% in November, the Labor Department said on Thursday. MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures fall after the inflation data BONDS: U.S. Treasury yields slid across the board. But I will note that it is an especially volatile period, which is not atypical for inflection points in market expectations and the broader macro outlook." BRIAN KLIMKE, INVESTMENT DIRECTOR, CETERA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, LOS ANGELES"It (the report) came in as expected, but investors were somewhat optimistic leading into this reading, so that they were buying the rumor and selling the new.

☆ Instant View: U.S. consumer prices fall in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - U.S consumer prices unexpectedly fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December amid declining prices for gasoline and other goods, suggesting that inflation was now on a sustained downward trend. The consumer price index dipped 0.1% last month after gaining 0.1% in November, the Labor Department said on Thursday. MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures fall after the inflation dataBONDS: U.S. Treasury yields slid across the board.FOREX: The dollar fell against the euro and yen. But I will note that it is an especially volatile period, which is not atypical for inflection points in market expectations and the broader macro outlook." BRIAN KLIMKE, INVESTMENT DIRECTOR, CETERA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, LOS ANGELES"It (the report) came in as expected, but investors were somewhat optimistic leading into this reading, so that they were buying the rumor and selling the new.

☆ Global stocks rally to near 4-week highs, oil rises on hopes of 'soft landing'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The gains were broad across equity markets, with Europe's STOXX 600 near a one-month high (.STOXX) and emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) up 2.4% on the day. Asian stocks rose after China reopened its borders, bolstering the outlook for the global economy. The U.S. dollar index was down around 0.8%, near its lowest in seven months after it dropped 1.2% on Friday . In bond markets, European government bond yields rose, in a reversal after the previous weeks' sharp falls. Bond yields move in the opposite direction of prices.

☆ November PPI a bit hotter than expected
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Data for October was revised higher to show the PPI gaining 0.3% instead of 0.2% as previously reported. "I don’t believe this changes anything about what the Fed was going to do on Wednesday in terms of raising rates by 50 basis points." The strength of the data was broad based with ex-food, energy, and trade also topping estimates at 0.3% MoM vs. 0.1% MoM anticipated in an acceleration from last month's 0.2% MoM print. If there’s any positive signs it’s the yearly decline.”“Bottom line is inflation is in a down-trend but month-on-month it’s hotter than expected. Then, in March I expect it to be a 25 basis points after which they’ll hold to see how all these rate hikes have played out unless something dramatic happens.

☆ Markets are watching for more clues on Fed hikes and the economy in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Investors may be a bit more cautious in the week ahead, with stocks seeking direction in quiet trading and the bond market's warnings about recession getting louder. "That's going to cause its own pressure on markets because markets never look through a profit recession." In the past week, Fed officials maintained their tough tone and some even sounded more hawkish. A rallying stock market is a sign of looser financial conditions. "The stock market is complicating the Fed's objective," said Lyngen.

☆ There's one number that could be key to how markets trade right after the Fed meets
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

(A basis point equals 0.01 of a percent) Besides the rate hike, the market is intently focused on the terminal rate. Expectations for the Fed's terminal rate also soared. Before the August CPI report, the futures market was pricing in a terminal rate at just about 4% for next April. In the futures market, "the terminal rate went up 40 basis points in 24 hours," he said. But NatWest Markets expects the Fed could indeed have a terminal rate of 5%.

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