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Consumers continued to sour on the economic outlook in November while also growing more pessimistic about future inflation, according to the first estimate from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The index of consumer sentiment fell 5% to a reading of 60.4, down from 63.8 in October. “Ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine weighed on many consumers as well.”“Overall, lower-income consumers and younger consumers exhibited the strongest declines in sentiment,” Hsu added. Various surveys measuring the minds of consumers have found them to be worried about inflation and the economy in general. “Consumer sentiment continues to trend downward at a moderate pace as consumers attempt to juggle inflation and higher interest rates,” said Damian McIntyre, Portfolio manager and head of multi asset solutions at Federated Hermes.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, Joe Biden, Damian McIntyre, Gregory Daco, ” Daco, Goldman Sachs Organizations: University of Michigan, “, Federated Hermes, Federal Reserve, Index, Louis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Gaza, Ukraine, Kentucky, Ohio

Many people subsequently turned to remote work, and the workforce recovered but only to be plunged into three years of an incredibly tight labor market. Today, the unemployment rate is at 3.9% following an increase in October from the prior’s month’s 3.8% level, and by most measures the labor market is considered very strong. “It does seem like the labor market is getting a little more balanced,” says Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. The overwhelmingly takeaway is that the labor market has defied most predictions and shown a level of resiliency and adaptability that has surprised many observers. This was the “excess retirements” who were causing the labor market to be exceptionally tight.

Persons: Gene Tannuzzo, “, ”, Bill Armstrong, “ We've, Guy Berger, James Neave, ” Neave, –, Berger, ’ Berger, Sarah House, it’s, women’s Organizations: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Safeguard Global, Technology, LinkedIn, Walmart, General Motors, Google, Wells, Louis Federal Reserve Bank, & $ Locations: Minnesota

☆ The top 10 U.S. cities for retirees — No. 1 isn’t in Florida
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-23 | by ( Cheyenne Devon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Many cities in Florida remain popular retirement destinations, but a Pennsylvania city ranks as the best place to spend your post-work years. A second Pennsylvania city, state capital Harrisburg, is No. It's clear Pennsylvania and Florida dominate the top spots on the list of best places to retire. Florida doesn't tax income and Pennsylvania doesn't tax retirement pensions and distributions from 401(k)s, IRAs or Social Security, according to Kiplinger. Here are the top 10 U.S. cities for retirees, according to U.S. News & World Report:Lancaster, Pennsylvania Harrisburg, Pennsylvania Pensacola, Florida Tampa, Florida York, Pennsylvania Naples, Florida Daytona Beach, Florida Ann Arbor, Michigan Allentown, Pennsylvania Reading, PennsylvaniaWhile lists like these can be helpful while researching potential retirement locations, remember that everyone's ideal retirement is unique and shaped by different priorities.

Persons: Lancaster, Warren Buffett Organizations: U.S . News, U.S ., . News, U.S . Census, Tax Foundation, Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Pensacola, Security, Kiplinger Locations: Florida, Pennsylvania, Lancaster , Pennsylvania, U.S, Puerto Rico, Lancaster, Harrisburg, Lancaster , Pennsylvania Harrisburg , Pennsylvania Pensacola, Florida Tampa , Florida York, Pennsylvania Naples, Beach , Florida Ann Arbor , Michigan Allentown , Pennsylvania Reading

☆ San Francisco Fed president: ‘It’s really too early to declare victory on inflation’
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Despite promising signs that inflation is abating, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said the fight against price increases isn’t over. But she cautioned, “It’s really too early to declare victory on inflation.”The latest Consumer Price Index report published on Wednesday showed that annual inflation slowed from 4% to 3% in June, the lowest level since March 2021. However, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, showed that inflation was double its 2% target in May. Daly acknowledged there’s a risk the Fed will raise rates higher than what’s ultimately needed to get inflation down to 2%. Daly, who will be voting on interest rates at the Fed’s meetings next year, said she wouldn’t necessarily consider cutting rates once inflation hits 2%.

Persons: Mary Daly, ” Daly, “ It’s, Daly, there’s, “ can’t, ”, Daly’s, James Bullard Organizations: New, New York CNN, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, CNBC, Louis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: New York, San, St

☆ Morning Bid: The UK consumer is feeling the heat
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya RanganathanIt's not just the heatwave. UK consumers are paying through their noses for fish and chips too, and Friday brings the next quarterly survey of their views on inflation and rates. As Britain contends with one of the highest inflation rates among major advanced economies, the BOE seems set to hike rates a lot more. The stock has soared 17% this year, but pared some gains as grocers across Europe cap some prices. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard speaks in Oslo, NorwayEarnings/updates: Tesco (TSCO.L)Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Vidya Ranganathan It's, BOE, Bullard, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Tesco, Asda, June University of Michigan, Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Thomson Locations: Vidya, gilts, Europe, Brussels, Italy, Oslo, Norway

☆ Fed's Bullard: disinflation prospects 'good' but not guaranteed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"Monetary policy is now at the low end of what is arguably sufficiently restrictive given current macroeconomic conditions," Bullard said in remarks prepared for delivery to a monetary policy conference at the Hoover Institution. Inflation expectations, which had risen last year, are now back down to levels Bullard said is consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target. Accordingly, he said, "the prospects for continued disinflation are good but not guaranteed." Bullard said earlier this month he has an open mind about June, though rates may need to rise further. He did not specifically address the June meeting in his prepared remarks on Friday.

☆ Airlines remain bullish on travel demand despite mounting economic worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Rajesh Kumar Singh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

CHICAGO, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. airlines posting strong financial results remain upbeat about travel demand, even as economists and analysts say the risk of an economic recession has gone up. If anything, they say, the relationship between passenger revenue and broader economy is returning to pre-pandemic trend. United estimates domestic passenger revenue used to account for about 0.5% of the country's GDP. It expects the trend to be restored this year, resulting in 15% higher revenue for the industry this year. "Demand remains strong, pricing is likely to remain favorable due to industry capacity constraints," said Cowen analyst Helane Becker.

☆ New Fed research flags rising risk of U.S. recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The paper’s authors said that the unemployment rate bottoms out and begins to move higher ahead of recession in a highly reliable pattern. When this shift occurs the unemployment rate is signaling the onset of recession in about eight months, the paper said. The San Francisco Fed research, written by bank economist Thomas Mertens, said its innovation is to make the jobless rate change a forward-looking indicator. The San Francisco Fed paper noted that the Fed, as of its December forecasts, sees the unemployment rate rising next year amid its campaign of aggressive rate hikes aimed at cooling high levels of inflation. In 2023, the Fed sees the jobless rate jumping up to 4.6% in a year where it sees only modest levels of overall growth.

☆ Elizabeth Warren blasts the 'egregious and embarrassing ethics breaches' among top Fed officials who she says have engaged in 'improper' stock trading for over a year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Sen. Elizabeth Warren slammed "improper stock trading" among Fed officials. On Monday, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding what she called "egregious and embarrassing ethics breaches by top officials at the Federal Reserve System," referring to reports of "improper" stock trading by officials behind closed doors. The scandals predate the October findings — in September 2021, for example, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan was found to have made multiple stock trades in 2020, along with Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. He declined to comment on any pending investigations of Fed officials. Along with looking into potential ethics breaches within the Fed, Warren and other Democratic lawmakers have also raised concerns with the tactics the Fed is using to fight inflation.

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