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OPEC and the IEA expect China's oil demand to show growth in 2023 of 7.6% and 12.1%, respectively. OPEC has dismissed fears of that demand growth for oil in China is fading, describing negative sentiment as "overblown" in a recent report. OPEC's forecasts show China accounting for 24.6% of global oil demand growth in the first half of 2024, according to Reuters calculations. Consultancies Wood Mackenzie, Rystad Energy and Energy Aspects respectively forecast China's first-half 2024 oil demand to grow by 3.7%, 4.0% and 4.4% versus the same period in 2023. Energy Aspects expects first-half diesel demand to be flat from a year earlier.
Persons: Aly, Consultancies Wood Mackenzie, Rystad, Lin Ye, Xia, Andrew Hayley, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, of Petroleum, International Energy Agency, OPEC, Rystad Energy, JET, Reuters Graphics Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, Thomson Locations: Zhuhai, China, Rights BEIJING, OPEC, Russia, Beijing
With equipment idling as construction slows and dwindling exports curb manufacturing, diesel demand is likely to ebb. Rystad Energy lowered its forecast for China's diesel demand for July to December this year to 3.81 million barrels per day (bpd) from an earlier outlook of 3.9 million bpd, though the new forecast is up 3.8% from the first half of 2023. "Diesel demand is still growing, but at a lower-than-expected rate," said Lin Ye, a Beijing-based downstream analyst at Rystad, citing the ailing property sector and deteriorating trade environment. An uptick in Chinese diesel demand earlier this year, driven by resurgent road freight transport in the first quarter, has lost momentum. August diesel exports are estimated at 650,000 to 800,000 tons, down from July's estimate of 1 million tons, data compiled by consultancy Longzhong and China-based trading analysts showed.
Persons: Aly, Lin Ye, Xia Shiqing, Wood Mackenzie, Mia Geng, Andrew Hayley, Trixie Yap, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Energy, International Energy Agency, IEA, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: Huangpu, Shanghai, China, Rights BEIJING, Beijing, Asia, Longzhong, Singapore
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