Though stocks remain near their 2023 highs, some investors now believe those factors will soon start taking a greater toll, limiting further upside. The market may be "back in the soup on the banking crisis," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services. Many investors don’t expect that calm to continue, as a battle over raising the $34 trillion U.S. debt ceiling looms. In the six rate-hiking cycles since 1984, the S&P 500 has posted an average three-month return of 8% following the peak funds rate, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote. However, the S&P 500 is already trading well above its valuation at the end of any cycle except the one ending in 2000, when the S&P 500 declined despite a Fed pause, the bank said.

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