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☆ Powell and the Fed won't be able to avoid talking about Trump forever
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Trump took a dim view of the Powell Fed during his first term in office, calling policymakers "boneheads" and once compared Powell to a golfer who couldn't putt. Powell, who was nominated by Trump in November 2017 and took office the following February, largely shrugged off the criticism then, and he again deflected Thursday. However, dealing with the ramifications of a Trump presidency will be almost unavoidable for the Fed leader. LaVorgna has a unique perspective on the situation, having served as chief economist for the National Economic Council under Trump. Trump historically has favored lower rates, though that too could change if the Fed cuts and inflation rises.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Donald Trump, Trump, Powell, I'm, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Lavorgna Organizations: Federal, Getty, firebrand Republican, Powell Fed, Trump, Fed, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, stoke

☆ Here’s what’s behind the surprising rise in yields since the Fed started cutting
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The reason why Treasury yields are rising isn't complicated — it's because investors are demanding more compensation for the risk they are taking when buying government debt. From a market standpoint, the burst higher in Treasury yields can be told through the "term premium." The moves higher in the term premium closely replicate those of other Treasury yields. However, traders are growing less certain about December, even though the Fed last month penciled in another 50 basis points in cuts this year. "The rise in term premium is the result of higher real interest rates and stronger economic data.

Persons: Donald Trump, David Rosenberg, Trump, Kamala Harris, Joseph LaVorgna Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Republican, Rosenberg Research, Trump, Democratic, Fed, Nikko Securities Locations: U.S, Nikko

☆ Interest rates are rising mostly because of higher term premium, says SMBC Nikko's Joseph Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInterest rates are rising mostly because of higher term premium, says SMBC Nikko's Joseph LavorgnaJoseph Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, and Andres Garcia-Amaya, Zoe Financial CEO, join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss outlooks on yields, how to position, and more.

Persons: SMBC Nikko's Joseph Lavorgna Joseph Lavorgna, Andres Garcia, Amaya, Zoe, CNBC's Organizations: Nikko Securities America

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Nuveen CIO Saira Malik and SMBC Nikko Securities' Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Nuveen CIO Saira Malik and SMBC Nikko Securities' Joe LavorgnaSaira Malik, Nuveen CIO and head of equities and fixed income, and Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities chief economist, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, whether a soft landing scenario can be achieved, state of the 2024 election, and more.

Persons: Saira Malik, Joe Lavorgna Saira Malik, Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Nikko Securities Locations: Nikko

☆ The soft landing narrative may not play out exactly how investors want, says Nuveen's Saira Malik
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe soft landing narrative may not play out exactly how investors want, says Nuveen's Saira MalikSaira Malik, Nuveen CIO and head of equities and fixed income, and Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities chief economist, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, whether a soft landing scenario can be achieved, state of the 2024 election, and more.

Persons: Nuveen's Saira Malik Saira Malik, Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Nikko Securities

☆ Markets are now wondering whether the Fed might cut by half a point in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Traders continued to price in a greater likelihood that the Fed will kick off what is expected to be a protracted easing campaign in September with a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, reduction. "My base-case scenario is that we are on a journey of 25 basis point cuts, probably for the next eight meetings, a couple hundred basis points cumulative," economist Paul McCulley said on CNBC's " Squawk on the Street ." "But if we see weaker growth, and particularly weaker jobs, then I think we could have a bit of front-loading and start the process with 50 basis point cuts." That, among other vows to support the economy now that inflation has waned, provided some indication that a 50 basis point move is at least on the table. Markets expect the central bank to knock off a full percentage point this year and at least that much in 2025.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Paul McCulley, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, you've, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Rick Rieder, Goolsbee Organizations: Federal, Traders, CME, Cornell, Georgetown, Fed, Nikko Securities, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Locations: Powell's, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Atlanta, Chicago

☆ Markets are counting on the Fed to head off recession with sizeable interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +5 min

Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, ”, Andrew Hollenhorst, ‘, ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, “, “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko

☆ Why an indicator that has foretold almost every recession doesn't seem to be working anymore
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

According to the New York Federal Reserve, which uses the 10-year/three-month curve, a recession should happen about 12 months later. The inversion is not aloneMaking the situation even more complicated is that the yield curve isn't the only indicator showing reason for caution about how long the post-Covid recovery can last. But the rate dynamics have helped companies escape what usually happens in an inverted curve. With an inverted curve hitting their net interest margins, banks may opt to lend less, causing a pullback in consumer spending that can lead to recession. This could provide something of a self-fulfilling prophecy for the yield curve.

Persons: Alex Kent, hasn't, —, there's, it's, Mark Zandi, It's, Joseph LaVorgna, SMBC, Quincy Krosby, We've, Jim Paulsen, Paulsen, That's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, Moody's, New York Federal Reserve, SMBC Nikko Securities, Gross, National Bureau of Economic Research, Commerce Department, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: New York, SMBC Nikko, Wells Fargo

☆ How Biden's unpopular economic record could be a challenge for Kamala Harris
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

As the frontrunner for the Democratic party's nomination, Kamala Harris will have to run, for better or worse, on President Joe Biden's economic record. It will be just one challenge Harris will have to overcome to defeat her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump . Despite historically low unemployment and macro growth that has defied long-held expectations for recession, the economy is Biden's soft spot. "I don't see a lot of daylight between her views on economic policy and those of the administration," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics , a Democrat who has advised administrations of both parties. Possible change at the Fed One area of difference between Biden and Harris could be a crucial one — the Federal Reserve.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's, Biden, Harris, Donald Trump, She's, Greg Valliere, she's, There's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, nonfarm, Joseph LaVorgna, Biden's, Trump, Jerome Powell, Powell, reappoint Powell Organizations: Democratic, Biden, Republican, AGF Investments, Reuters, Moody's, Democrat, Economic Council, Nikko Securities, Federal Reserve, Senate, Beacon, Advisors Locations: California

☆ Surging government red ink spurs economists' worries over a prolonged recession and market trouble
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Burgeoning debt and deficits are threatening to make the next recession deeper while tying the hands of policymakers, according to two leading economists. The Congressional Budget Office this week revised its estimates to paint an even bleaker version of the U.S. financial picture. Teetering on trouble In fact, Rosenberg thinks the economy already is nearing or in the early stages of recession. "With budget deficits historically high relative to an economy operating at full employment, the government could be facing double-digit budget deficits when the next downturn hits." While equity markets have largely shrugged off worries over the fiscal situation, LaVorgna and Rosenberg both insist that bond investors should pay attention.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Teetering, Janet Yellen, Joseph LaVorgna, Donald Trump, LaVorgna Organizations: Congressional, Rosenberg Research, Federal, CBO, CNBC, White House, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council Locations: U.S

☆ Inflation slows in May, with consumer prices up 3.3% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer price index showed no increase in May as inflation slightly loosened its stubborn grip on the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The monthly rate rose 0.3% in April while the annual rate was 3.3%. Though the top-line inflation numbers were lower for both the all-items and core measures, shelter inflation increased 0.4% on the month and was up 5.4% from a year ago. Housing-related numbers have been a sticking point in the Federal Reserve's inflation battle and make up a heavy share of the CPI weighting. Though the Fed doesn't use the CPI as its main inflation indicator, it still figures into the calculus.

Persons: Dow Jones, Price, Robert Frick, Joseph LaVorgna, FOMC Organizations: department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Treasury, Dow Jones, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve, CPI, Nikko Securities, Commerce Locations: U.S

☆ Fed policy 'comfortably on hold' following jobs report beat: SMBC Chief Economist Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed policy 'comfortably on hold' following jobs report beat: SMBC Chief Economist Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities Managing Director & Chief Economist, joins 'Fast Money' to talk today's May jobs report, the U.S. economy and what all this means for the Federal Reserve's next decision.

Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Nikko Securities, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Experts react to April’s CPI report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExperts react to April’s CPI reportTiffany Wilding, PIMCO economist; Joe LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America U.S. chief economist; Wendy Edelberg, senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution; and CNBC's Steve Liesman join ‘Squawk Box’ to react to April's CPI data.

Persons: Tiffany Wilding, Joe LaVorgna, Wendy Edelberg, Steve Liesman Organizations: Nikko Securities America U.S, Economic, Brookings Institution

☆ Healthcare costs will keep PCE elevated out of Fed's target range, says economist Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHealthcare costs will keep PCE elevated out of Fed's target range, says economist Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the overheated U.S. economy, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.

Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Healthcare, PCE, Nikko Securities America

☆ All the data so far is showing inflation isn't going away, and is making things tough on the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Finally, consumers are dipping into savings to fund those purchases, creating a precarious scenario, if not now then down the road. With unemployment under 4%, it shouldn't be that surprising that prices aren't" going down, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. So you might have a sticky inflation scenario." "If inflation remains higher, the Fed will be faced with the difficult choice of pushing the economy into a recession, abandoning its soft-landing scenario, or tolerating inflation higher than 2%," Sanders said. "To us, accepting higher inflation is the more prudent option."

Persons: Justin Sullivan, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Biden, Mike Sanders, Sanders Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council, Madison Investments Locations: San Rafael , California, U.S

☆ Don't the first Fed rate cut until December, says SMBC Nikko Securities' Joe LaVorgna
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't the first Fed rate cut until December, says SMBC Nikko Securities' Joe LaVorgnaJoe LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America U.S. chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the impact of Middle East tensions, the Fed's inflation fight, interest rate outlook, and more.

Persons: Joe LaVorgna Joe LaVorgna Organizations: Nikko Securities, Nikko Securities America U.S Locations: Nikko

☆ Hot inflation data pushes market’s rate cut expectations to September
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Three months of inflation data have brought those expectations back down to earth. "Not that you've put a pin in inflation getting to the Fed's target, but it's not happening imminently." The 2-year Treasury note , which is especially sensitive to Fed rate moves, jumped to 4.93%, an increase of nearly 0.2 percentage point. The pricing in of seven rate cuts earlier this year was completely at odds with indications from Fed officials. However, when policymakers in December raised their "dot plot" indicator to three rate cuts from two projected in September, it set off a Wall Street frenzy.

Persons: Michael M, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, you've, There's, Today's, Phillip Neuhart, Joseph LaVorgna, Schwab's Sonders, Sonders Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, Federal, Labor, CPI, Fed, Traders, First, Bank Wealth, Dow Jones, Treasury, Nikko Securities, Atlanta Fed Locations: New York City

☆ Recession odds are 'very high' as economy looks poised to see an unemployment wave and plunging consumer spending, chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The odds of a recession are "very high" in the US, according to Joe LaVorgna. AdvertisementThe odds of the economy tipping into a recession are "very high," as the US is poised to see a wave of unemployment and a major drop in consumer spending. Advertisement"All three of those metrics are still flashing recession," LaVorgna said. AdvertisementStrong consumer spending on goods also looks poised to drop, which could end up dragging economic growth lower, LaVorgna said. "It makes me think recession risk … still has a very high probability," he added.

Persons: Joe LaVorgna, LaVorgna, — Organizations: Service, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research, Treasury, Investor Locations: Nikko

☆ Fed Chair Powell testifying to House on Wednesday. What investors are expecting
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, during a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on June 21, 2023. The past several months have seen a changing dynamic between financial markets and the Fed over the pace and timing of expected interest rate cuts this year. Markets have had to adjust their collective view from a highly accommodative central bank to one that's more cautious and deliberate. Central to the question of how the Fed acts from here on out is its view on inflation and how Powell expresses that. Powell will have to synthesize the recent trends carefully as he speaks first to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, then the Senate Banking Committee the day after.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Nathan Howard, Powell, Quincy Krosby, He's, it's, Joseph LaVorgna, Steven Ricchiuto, Sharp Organizations: Federal, Financial, Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Getty, Capitol Hill, Fed, LPL, CME Group, Banking Committee, Nikko Securities, Big Tech, Mizuho Securities, Market Locations: Washington ,

☆ Fed meeting: Here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed meeting: Here's what to expectSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, Paul Christopher, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global market strategy, and Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss a timeline for Fed rate easing, U.S. economic health, and more.

Persons: Subadra, Paul Christopher, Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Societe Generale, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Nikko Securities America Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Here's what it would take for the Fed to start slashing interest rates in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"In a different cycle, when inflation hadn't spiked so much, I think the Fed would have been cutting rates already. "If the real fed funds rate continues to go higher as I expect it will, then you'd want to offset that through rate cuts. And the amount of rate cuts I think they're going to have to do is a relatively large amount." "I think there's a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn't start cutting rates pretty soon," the head of Pershing Square Capital Management added. However, even some of the historically more dovish Fed officials aren't showing their hands on when they think cuts will come.

Persons: Valerie Plesch, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Waller, Bowman, Joseph LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Chris Marangi, Bill Ackman, Ackman, David Rubenstein, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Fed, Nikko Securities America, National Economic Council, CME Group, Stocks, Gabelli, Market, Pershing, Capital Management, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Richmond Locations: Washington , DC, Atlanta

☆ The economy probably showed gangbuster growth in the third quarter. But will it last?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

If the projection is correct, it will be the strongest output since the fourth quarter of 2021, when growth was just shy of 7%. However, policymakers, economists and markets will be focused more on forward-looking signals from an economy that repeatedly has defied expectations. For Q3, GDPNow is projecting growth of 5.4%, with more than half — 2.77 percentage points — to come from consumer spending. That expectation intensified during a brief banking industry crisis in March 2023 that the Fed expected would constrain credit enough to bring about a downturn. Central bank officials have raised rates aggressively while professing to not want to drag the economy into recession.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Dow, Joseph LaVorgna, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, LaVorgna, Steven Ricchiuto, Ricchiuto, —, Quincy Krosby, that's Organizations: Getty, Gross, Dow Jones, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities America, Federal Reserve, Fed, White, Mizuho Securities USA, Department, Treasury, LPL Locations: Manhattan, New York City, U.S

☆ The U.S. economy is extremely resilient, says economist Betsey Stevenson
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. economy is extremely resilient, says economist Betsey StevensonJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, and Betsey Stevenson, professor of economics at the University of Michigan, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss where the Federal Reserve goes from here, their thoughts on the overall economy, and more.

Persons: Betsey Stevenson Joseph LaVorgna, Betsey Stevenson Organizations: Nikko Securities America, University of Michigan, Federal

☆ Something is breaking in financial markets — Here's what's behind the sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Brendan McDermid | ReutersThat cracking sound in financial markets isn't the typical kind of break, where one asset class or another fractures and gives way. "The cost of capital is going up, companies are going to have to refinance at a higher rate." That sentiment was buttressed this week, when at least four central bank officials either endorsed hikes or indicated that higher rates would be staying in place for an extended period. Consumers, for one, are feeling the squeeze of higher rates on everything from mortgages to credit cards to personal loans. "Now, at some point, my guess is that markets will eventually get to cheap enough levels where you'll bring buyers in.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Larry McDonald, Treasurys, McDonald, It's, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, I've Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Treasury, LPL, Labor Department, Wall, P Bank ETF, Congressional, Treasury Department, The, White House, National Economic Council, Nikko Securities Locations: New York City, Washington, U.S

The forecasts seem at odds as higher rates raise the credit costs that can crimp the economy. MSCI's U.S.-centric gauge of global equity performance and stocks on Wall Street bounced back while Treasury yields, which move inversely to price, retreated. Yields on two- and 10-year notes remained inverted at -68.3 basis points as the shorter-dated note yields more than the longer one. MSCI's all-world country index for stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.14%, but the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed down 0.31%. Oil prices rose as renewed global supply concerns from Russia's fuel export ban countered demand fears driven by macroeconomic headwinds and higher interest rates.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Marvin Loh, Joe LaVorgna, SMBC, Brent, Craig Ebert, Huw Jones, Tom Westbrook, Marguerita Choy, Rashmi Aich, Aurora Ellis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank, Japan, Treasury, Federal, Fed, U.S, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Bank of, Japan's Nikkei, Investors, Bank of England, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, New York, Asia, Japan, China, Sweden, Norway, BNZ, Wellington

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