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☆ Rep. Jared Moskowitz says police alerted him about a 'potential threat' on his life
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-09 | by ( Zoë Richards | Zoë Richards Is A Politics Reporter For Nbc News. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

Rep. Jared Moskowitz of Florida said Friday that police notified him this week about an arrest in connection with a “potential threat on my life” in his district, which covers parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties. Moskowitz, a Democrat, said in the Friday statement that the Margate Police Department notified him about an alleged “potential plot” on his life on Monday, a day before Tuesday’s general election. “I am deeply worried about congressional member security and the significant lack thereof when we are in the district,” Moskowitz said. “Political violence has no place in our country,” Gimenez said in a statement. In another instance of threatened political violence, President-elect Donald Trump also faced a pair of assassination attempts in July and September.

Persons: Jared Moskowitz, Florida, Moskowitz, Tuesday’s, “, ” Moskowitz, John Lapinski, Maj, Alain Banatte, Lapinski, ”, Carlos Gimenez, ” Gimenez, Democratic Sen, Jacky Rosen of, Donald Trump Organizations: Margate Police, Margate, NBC, Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, Explosives, U.S . Capitol Police, U.S, Attorney’s, Southern District of, FBI, Florida Republican, Democratic, Jacky Rosen of Nevada Locations: Broward, Palm Beach, Margate, Israel, Southern District of Florida, Florida, Nevada

That’s when Election Day turns into election night, and each state starts reporting its vote totals. Virginia is an example of a state that usually has a geography-driven red mirage early on election night. Another factor that can cause vote mirages is partisan differences by vote mode — mail ballots, early in-person votes, Election Day in-person votes, and so on. This will produce a vote mirage if there are partisan differences between the earliest-returned mail ballots and the later-returned ones. As Election Day votes were reported in the next few hours of election night, the size of the blue mirage shrunk to about 3.5 points.

Persons: That’s, ”, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Donald Trump’s, Kyrsten Sinema, Trump, Ann Arbor, Clark, Clark’s Organizations: North Carolina —, Republican, Washington , D.C, Democratic, Democrat, NBC, Trump, Biden, Senate Locations: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona , Nevada, California, Virginia, Fairfax, Washington ,, Fairfax County, Arizona, Maricopa County, Atlanta, Pennsylvania, Democratic Philadelphia, Allegheny, Philadelphia, Michigan, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Ann, Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Nevada, Las Vegas

The early votes of new voters — voters who did not show up in 2020 — are of particular interest because they are votes that could change what happens in 2024 relative to the last presidential election. The data out of Pennsylvania shows large differences in the number of votes cast by new voters, both by party registration and by gender. More new voters are registered Democrats than Republicans, and new female voters are driving this partisan gap. The new male voters are only slightly more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, but among new female voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1. But the Republican advantage in new Arizona voters so far is being driven largely by male voters.

Persons: —, Joe Biden, Donald Trump ., Biden, Kamala Harris, Josh Clinton Organizations: NBC, Democratic, Trump, don’t, Republicans, Biden, New, Democrats, Arizona voters Locations: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Arizona , Nevada , North Carolina, Georgia , Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada

In fact, the state polls are showing not just an astonishingly tight race, but also an improbably tight race. Imagine if pollsters in this world conducted 100 identical surveys of 863 randomly selected voters (that’s the average sample size of this year’s swing state polls). Actual swing state polls show far less variation than the benchmarks we would expect in a perfect polling world. Visualizing how the reported polling margins compare to what we would expect in a perfect polling world strongly suggests “herding” of swing state polling margins around the statewide polling averages. The pattern is especially pronounced in Pennsylvania, where a huge share of the public polls have showed a tied race.

Persons: there’s, shouldn’t, Harris, Josh Clinton, pollsters, pollster Organizations: Trump, NBC, Pennsylvania Locations: Pennsylvania, Arizona , Michigan, Wisconsin

In 2020, election week replaced election night: Joe Biden wasn’t declared the winner until Saturday. The truth is the Decision Desk cannot know until election night which scenario will unfold, regardless of how carefully we have analyzed the polls, early vote, and other election-related data. One thing is clear: The days of projecting a winner on election night itself are almost certainly over. North Carolina has a similar pattern in how it reports out the vote, with 99% of the vote counted by midnight in past elections. And unlike some other close states, it wasn’t just because the margin was so thin.

Persons: It's, Joe Biden wasn’t, Joe Biden’s, let’s, John Fetterman, —, Stephen Pettigrew Organizations: NBC, Electoral College, Wednesday, Philadelphia, Senate, Congressional, NBC News Locations: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Allegheny, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Nebraska’s, Nebraska, Nevada

Nearly all of those jurisdictions provide multiple vote reports (updates to the vote count) on election night and in the following days. In the November 2020 election, NBC News received over 88,000 updates to its vote totals across 542 different races. ET that night, NBC News received just over four updates per second, on average. Since 2018, the NEP has received vote count data from Edison Research, a firm that specializes in collecting election data. What makes election results in this country trustworthy, however, are the countless fail-safes that detect and correct such mistakes.

Persons: Edison, ” Organizations: NBC News, NBC, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Edison Research Locations: Washington, New England, Clark County , Nevada, Las Vegas, Maricopa County , Arizona, Phoenix, Milwaukee County, Wisconsin

On Nov. 5, the Decision Desk will project 610 races across all 50 states, from the presidential election to statewide and congressional contests. Early on election night, the Decision Desk uses exit poll data to determine whether it can project uncompetitive races. When a party has gained a majority of 218 seats in the House, the Decision Desk will project control for that party. Other sources for election vote data include state and county vote computer feeds and websites, when they are available. Exit poll results are independently analyzed in real time, and NBC News calls all races as soon as the Decision Desk is fully confident in the winner.

Persons: — Organizations: NBC, NBC News, Senate, ABC, CBS, CNN, Edison Research, Reuters, The Washington Post

☆ The VA Program That Has Homelessness Down Among Veterans
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Ben Kesling | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

DENVER—Nationwide, the homeless population has been slowly rising during the past few years, up more than 5% since 2017. But among veterans, the number has declined by more than 17% over that period, a drop advocates attribute to an aggressive and well-funded “housing first” policy. The approach is in full swing in a program that operates out of a nondescript brick building in an industrial area of Denver. Lauren Lapinski , a licensed clinical social worker with the Department of Veterans Affairs, arrived at Denver’s VA Community Resource and Referral Center before dawn one day earlier this month—after having been up late the night before canvassing strip malls and alleys as part of an annual homeless count.

☆ Special Report: Boy Scouts, Catholic dioceses find haven from sex abuse suits in bankruptcy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Kristina Cooke Mike Spector Benjamin Lesser Dan Levine Disha Raychaudhuri | Kristina Cooke | Mike Spector | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +19 min

The Boy Scouts, for instance, said on a website the group set up for restructuring that it launched a “comprehensive noticing campaign” in the media. He sought compensation in the Boy Scouts bankruptcy in June, long after a deadline of November 16, 2020 for filing claims. The Boy Scouts bankruptcy reorganization plan, approved by a judge in September, halts all lawsuits against the Boy Scouts, local councils, churches and other organizations that chartered scouting activities. His case was halted by the Boy Scouts bankruptcy. Later that year, in August, he filed his lawsuit against defendants including a Boy Scouts local council and DeSandre.

“We implore voters and members of the media to allow election officials to do their work.” The process is painstaking. In New Hanover, students allegedly were harassed while walking to class from a voting site, and an observer allegedly “angrily” confronted an election official, the board reported. “There are 8,800 election jurisdictions and we see issues pop up every election day,” the official said, citing low-level cyberattacks against election websites or accidental website outages as potential examples. Share this -Link copiedSunny weather in most battleground states on Election Day It’s a bright and sunny Election Day in many battleground states! Karamo sued Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey last week to toss absentee ballots unless voters present identification, alleging election law violations regarding the counting of the ballots.

Wisconsin judge won’t order sequestering of absentee ballotsMADISON, Wis. — A Wisconsin judge on Monday, less than 14 hours before polls opened, refused to order that military absentee ballots be pulled aside and sequestered until it can be verified that they were cast legally, saying that would be a “drastic remedy” that could disenfranchise voters. The Republican chair of the Wisconsin Assembly’s elections committee along with a veterans group and other voters sued on Friday, seeking a court order to sequester the ballots. Waukesha County Circuit Judge Michael Maxwell denied that request for a temporary restraining order in a ruling from the bench following a two-hour hearing Monday afternoon. “That just seems to be a drastic remedy,” he said of sequestering the ballots. Read the full story here.

Early on election night, the NBC News Decision Desk uses exit poll data to determine whether uncompetitive races can be called. No race is projected until the Decision Desk is at a minimum 99.5% confident of the winner. What kinds of calls and characterizations does the Decision Desk make? The Decision Desk will not use this characterization until we have statistical confidence that the race will be this close. When a party has gained a majority of seats in the Senate, the Decision Desk will project control for that party.

Nationally, 51% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate if the election for House were being held today and 49% said they would vote for the Republican candidate. A deeper analysis of state-level results reveal concerns for Democrats in several critical states where the party is trying to gain or hold Senate seats. For voters who identify as Democrat or Republican, their ballots break down as expected — 97% of Democrats say they’ll vote for the Democratic candidate and 97% of Republicans say they’ll vote for the Republican. There are differences across party lines, and critically, priorities of independent voters are closer to those of Republicans than Democrats. Analyses of subgroups of states were weighted according to population targets in those states.

A month before the midterm elections, most Americans say abortion is important to their vote. Ninety percent of Americans who identify as Democrats or leaning Democrat, 78 % of independents and 74 % of Republican and Republican-leaning Americans say abortion matters at the voting booth. Nine in 10 Americans think a pregnant woman should be able to legally have an abortion if her health is seriously endangered by the pregnancy. Aggregating the states where abortion is legal, 88 % of Americans think abortion should be legal in the case of rape or incest. Two-thirds of Americans also said they think abortion regulations should be determined by public referendum rather than by elected officials or judges.

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