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Mike Blake | ReutersSince 2019, immigration has added 2 million workers to the U.S. labor supply, according to an April analysis by Tedeschi. Without immigrants, Tedeschi estimated that the size of the U.S. labor supply would have shrunk by 1.2 million during that period. The short answer is that this executive order will probably not increase inflation. Some experts say the executive order could bring down costs by smoothing out the U.S.-Mexico supply chain. Biden's executive order could help clear some of these supply chain bottlenecks.
Persons: Joe Biden, Leah Millis, Joe Biden's, Biden, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Jose Luis Gonzalez, Ernie Tedeschi, Tedeschi, Trucks, Daniel Becerril, Donald Trump, I'd, Mike Blake, Tara Watson, Guillermo Arias, Jerry Pacheco, It's, Pacheco, Watson, Trump, Saul Loeb Organizations: White, . Border Patrol, Department of Homeland Security, NBC, Texas National Guard, Reuters, United, Yale University's, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Customs, Brookings, Immigrants, AFP, Getty Images Shipping, Border Industrial Association, Getty Locations: U.S, Mexico, Washington , U.S, United States, Texas, Ciudad Juarez, Nuevo Laredo, Biden's, San Diego , California, Mesa Port, Tijuana , Mexico, New Mexico, Calexico , California
In a new complaint, the department alleges Best Practice, a staffing agency, sent the child to work at SMART Alabama, which provided car parts to Hyundai. The complaint alleges all three companies were responsible for employing the child. “We are reviewing the new lawsuit and intend to vigorously defend the company,” Hyundai said in a statement provided to CNN. The complaint, filed in an Alabama federal court, seeks an order requiring the companies to release any profits related to the use of child labor as well as an order to stop any future use of child labor. Hyundai and its suppliers had been the subjects of a series of investigations by news service Reuters into the use of child labor in Alabama.
Persons: Jessica Looman, ” Hyundai, , Hyundai Organizations: CNN, United States Department of Labor, Hyundai, SMART Alabama, Fair Labor, Reuters Locations: Alabama, United States, America
Read previewIn recent years, Sen. Josh Hawley has sought to position himself as populist Republican and a staunch ally of organized labor. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Related stories"I'm honored to have the support of UAW in this race," Kunce said in a statement to Business Insider. AdvertisementThe Teamsters, one of the country's largest labor unions, contributed $5,000 to Hawley's reelection campaign in April. "I'm not a huge fan of the PRO Act," Hawley told Business Insider in September.
Persons: , Sen, Josh Hawley, That's, Lucas Kunce, Hawley, that's Lucas Kunce, Fred Jamison, I'm, Kunce, we'll, Let's, Donald Trump, they're Organizations: Service, Republican, National Labor Relations Board, Business, United Auto Workers, Missouri Republican, Senate, UAW, Cap Council, Observers, America, PRO, Teamsters, Republican National Committee, Democratic National Committee, Democratic, Kansas City Star Locations: Missouri
Recent reports indicate that Australian home prices are set to continue their upward trend, driven by increasing migration rates and a shortage of housing supply. Treasurer Jim Chalmers is set to deliver the budget on Tuesday, which is expected to focus on addressing the nation's housing crisis. The Albanese government has already said it plans to allocate 88.8 million Australian dollars ($58.7 million) to train 20,000 local workers for the construction and housing sector. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC) said Australia's limited housing supply has been further stretched by a number of factors, including "the resumption of migration at pace, rising interest rates, skills shortages, elevated construction company insolvencies, weak consumer confidence and cost inflation." She also said high housing prices have "ugly" long-term effects.
Persons: Andrew Merry, Eliza Owen, Jim Chalmers, Albanese, Peter Dutton, Owen, CoreLogic's Owen Organizations: Australia, Reserve Bank, Australian Bureau, Statistics, CoreLogic, ABS, Housing Supply, Authorities, Australian Bureau of Statistics Locations: North Bondi, Sydney, Australia, CoreLogic Australia
Immigrant workers are helping boost the U.S. labor market
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Kate Rogers | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The strong jobs market has been bolstered post-pandemic by strength in the immigrant workforce in America. And as Americans age out of the labor force and birth rates remain low, economists and the Federal Reserve are touting the importance of immigrant workers for overall future economic growth. Immigrant workers made up 18.6% of the workforce last year, a new record, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Despite the U.S. adding fewer-than-expected jobs in April, the labor force participation rate for foreign-born workers ticked up slightly, to 66%. "We don't have enough workers participating in the labor force and our birth rate has dropped down 2% last year from 2022 to 2023.
Persons: Jennie Murray, Phillip Swagel, Swagel Organizations: Federal, of Labor Statistics, Workers, National Immigration, Congressional Locations: America
That leaves economists turning to other indicators to evaluate the strength of the job market and to forecast its forward momentum. Job openings have been coming down, the unemployment rate has ticked up recently (particularly for Black workers) and hiring expectations in business surveys have wobbled. The takeaway is that this seems to be a strong job market, but exactly how strong is hard to know. If job gains were to slow, would that be a sign that the economy was beginning to buckle, or just evidence that employers had finally sated their demand for new hires? If job gains were to stay strong, would that be a sign that things were overheating, or evidence that labor supply was still expanding?
Tuesday's analyst calls focused on red-hot tech giant Nvidia, which is seen as benefitting from the release of its new Blackwell chip, the GB200. 7:02 a.m.: Deutsche Bank sees 33% upside for Live Nation on strong fundamentals Strong fundamentals could spell further upside for shares of Live Nation Entertainment , according to Deutsche Bank. Soff also applauded the company for expanding into new add-on services, including providing upselling opportunities and selling advertising on the Live Nation app. Although a potential regulatory investigation could curtail the stock, Soff doesn't believe that Live Nation stock will ultimately take much damage. 6:03 a.m.: Jefferies initiates Ralph Lauren at a buy, sees momentum with younger consumers Ralph Lauren is shaping up to be a quality growth stock, according to Jefferies.
Persons: Blackwell, Jefferies, Ralph Lauren, Benjamin Soff's, Soff, shouldn't, — Lisa Kailai Han, Airbnb, James Lee, Lee's, headwinds, Brent Thrill, Ashley Helgans, Ralph Lauren's, Helgans, Taylor Swift, Timothy Acuri, Acuri, Hopper, — Lisa Kailai Han — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC, Nvidia, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Nation, Live Nation Entertainment, Mizuho, Paris, tailwinds, Paris Olympics, Chegg, Blackwell, Microsoft, Oracle Locations: Europe
Activist Ancora on Thursday won the support of the BMWED Teamsters in the investor's efforts to oust Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw and a majority of the railroad's 13-person board. The labor group said it would back the activist's seven director nominees over Norfolk Southern management, a significant endorsement in an industry unusually dependent on union support. The support from the BMWED Teamsters, whose members build and maintain the track infrastructure that keeps Norfolk Southern trains moving, amounts to a sharp rebuke of Shaw and Norfolk Southern's board. Norfolk Southern and Ancora have been locked in a proxy contest for several months. Neuberger Berman, for example, is backing the activist and said that Norfolk Southern had a history of poor governance and that a boardroom change was needed.
Persons: Ancora, Alan Shaw, Shaw, Tony Cardwell, Cardwell, Jim Barber, Jamie Boychuk, Boychuk, Barber, It's, John Orr, Glass Lewis, Neuberger Berman Organizations: Thursday, Teamsters, Norfolk Southern, Norfolk, BMWED Teamsters, Labor, American Federation of Labor, Industrial Organizations, CSX, Ancora Locations: Norfolk Southern, Norfolk, U.S, East Palestine , Ohio, Washington
The companies are asking federal courts, often with conservative, pro-business judges, to stop the agency from standing behind the more activist unions now making their lives more difficult. “The NLRB has long used the federal courts … to obtain injunctions … before the merits of an unfair labor practice case are fully evaluated,” said a statement from Starbucks. The employer doesn’t have to pay any interest, penalty or fine, to the fired workers, their union or the agency. While this is the first such case to reach the Supreme Court, other cases are emerging in which some high profile employers are challenging the agency’s right to exist. The Supreme Court’s decision is expected by the end of June.
Persons: Biden, , , , Jennifer Abruzzo, Cathy Creighton, Clinton, Elon Musk’s, Joe’s, Cornell’s Creighton, she’s, “ They’re, “ I’m Organizations: New, New York CNN, Starbucks, National Labor Relations Board, NLRB, Memphis, Cornell University’s, Industrial and Labor Relations, SpaceX, nonunion Locations: New York, Memphis, Buffalo , New York
Among them, it's highest in the legal profession: Indeed found that average workers saw their paychecks grow at a 5.7% pace in March 2024 versus a year earlier. Strong wage growth doesn't necessarily translate to a high salary, though. By comparison, software developers make $66.40 an hour and $138,110 annually on average, according to BLS data. For example, workers in accommodation and food services saw annual earnings growth peak at 16.1% in December 2021, according to ZipRecruiter data. By comparison, it found that those in the information sector saw growth peak at 7.8% in September 2022.
Persons: Julia Pollak, Allison Shrivastava, Pollak Organizations: Maskot, Workers, Finance, it's, CNBC, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics
Foreign-born workers are leading the increase in the US labor force, Fitch Ratings said. But a simple explanation could lie in US immigration trends, as a surge of foreign-born workers is propelling labor expansion, Fitch Ratings reported on Thursday. "The foreign-born labor participation rate is 66%, more than the native-born participation rate of 62%." AdvertisementBut while higher immigration flows should keep labor momentum going through this year, Fitch also cautioned that it risks an oversupply. Still, migrants' contribution to labor has significantly boosted economic growth, Fitch said, a point shared by previous research.
Persons: Fitch, , Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Olu Sonola Organizations: Service, Fitch, Wall Street, JPMorgan Locations: U.S, hirings
A strong jobs outlook raises the potential of greater inflation pressures, meaning the central bank might be less eager to ease policy. Indeed, there are some signs that the labor market's strength may not be as robust as the headline nonfarm payrolls numbers indicate. Economists both on Wall Street and at the Fed suspect swelling immigration numbers are playing a role in boosting employment and keeping the labor market so tight. With political clamoring intensifying for the U.S. to tighten its border controls, the resilience of the labor market then could be jeopardized depending on how large a role immigration is playing. "Another strong report raises the potential that the deterioration in labor markets we have been expecting will be avoided.
Persons: nonfarm, Seema Shah, Shah, Mohamed El, There's, Goldman Sachs, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Asset Management, Allianz, Fed, CNBC, Wall, Congressional, Citigroup, Citi Locations: it's, Italy, U.S, South America, Central America, Mexico
Fears of an economic recession may have to be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan. JPMorgan said the rebound in manufacturing activity bodes well for continued economic resilience. The note highlighted the unexpected strength seen in ISM manufacturing activity in March, which jumped above 50 for the first time since September 2022. A reading above 50 represents an expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50 represents a contraction. If a potential recession is pushed back to 2025 because of the solid manufacturing data, it would represent yet another year in which many economists were off in their recession predictions, though some have backed off their call for a recession following the resilience seen throughout 2023 even amid higher interest rates.
Persons: JPMorgan's Ellen Wang, Andrew Tyler, Wang, Tyler, Wang aren't Organizations: JPMorgan, Market Intelligence, Federal Reserve
Some economists interpreted that as a sign that the Fed is now more tolerant of higher inflation. Powell pushed back on the perception that the central bank has grown more comfortable with inflation being higher for longer than expected in his post-meeting news conference. and my sense coming out of this month’s meeting was that Fed Chair Powell wants to get this easing cycle going sooner rather than later. What’s allowing the Fed to be patient or more tolerant of higher inflation? They’re willing to essentially look through some of the bumpiness in the inflation data at the beginning of the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, That’s, Powell, , ” Powell, “ We’re, Mohamed El, Erian, , Bell, Lydia Boussour, they’re, What’s, we’ve, Nathaniel Meyersohn, Read, Levi Strauss, Tupperware Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Financial Times, Fed, Home Depot, Home, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Maine Foods, Dave, Buster’s Entertainment, US Labor Department, US Commerce Department, Stanford University Locations: EY, Cal
"Elevated immigration has boosted labor force growth and, by extension, potential GDP growth," Goldman Sachs said. The bank boosted its 2024 GDP forecast in a note on Sunday, arguing that a jump in labor force growth via elevated immigration will drive the US economy higher. "Elevated immigration has boosted labor force growth and, by extension, potential GDP growth," Goldman Sachs said. Advertisement"We expect immigration to be about 1mn higher than usual this year, implying breakeven job growth of around 125k and a 0.3pp boost to potential GDP growth in 2024 from faster labor force growth," Walker said. Advertisement"Our estimates imply that above-trend immigration will boost potential GDP growth by 0.3pp in 2024.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Ronnie Walker, Walker Organizations: Service Locations: America
Millennial women are taking over the economy
  + stars: | 2024-03-17 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Millennial women are having an outsized impact on the global economy, according to Ned Davis Research. "The rise in millennial female participation should have positive implications for the economy and equities in the long-term," NDR said. "The unemployment rate tends to be lower among people with higher education, which helps explain the greater take-up of women in the workforce. Younger women are more likely to have higher education and thus, be employed productively." Ned Davis Research"The premise is that when the economy has a large proportion of maturing population, workers are more productive, and incomes are higher," Grindal said.
Persons: Ned Davis, Alejandra Grindal, , Grindal, millennials Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR Locations: Australia, Japan, Germany, Italy, South Korea
Undocumented immigration has boosted the labor market, helping steer the US away from a recession, some experts say. Morgan Stanley's chief US economist has also recently cited undocumented immigration as a positive labor-market force. AdvertisementHere's a question that's been lurking beneath the stellar economic resilience in the US: how has the labor market stayed so strong? "It has boosted the labor force, it has boosted supply for labor, it has boosted job gains. AdvertisementThe labor market has recorded gains stronger than that, posting an addition of 275,000 jobs in February.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's, , Wendy Edelberg, Tara Watson, Watson, Ellen Zentner, Zentner Organizations: Brookings Institution, Service, Congressional, Office, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Brookings
The S & P 500 Volatility Index finished the week near 15 and is in a clear three- month uptrend from its mid-December low near 12, even as the S & P 500 has gained 10% since then. In fact, Friday the market minimized the headline damage to a mere two-thirds-percent dip in the S & P 500 through its signature rotational impulse. Some indicators — such as speculators remaining net short S & P 500 futures and brokerage strategists' muted index targets — imply the helpful wall of worry is not quite fully scaled. Since then, the S & P has delivered a 16.7% annualized total return, even after two bear markets and two other severe/prolonged corrections. And the S & P is only up 7% from its high 26 months ago, hardly in thin air.
Persons: what's, Eli Lilly, Martin Marietta, Nick Colas, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Costco, pharma, Martin Marietta Materials, Vulcan, 3Fourteen Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, DataTrek, Citi
Now, as the Federal Reserve faces the final stretch of its historic inflation battle, a bigger pool of workers could slow inflation even further. That then begs the question: How much more can better labor supply slow inflation? The US Labor Department releases January figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended March 2. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases February inflation data.
Persons: Mary Daly, , ” Sarah House, Michael Gapen, That’s, Jack Bantock, , , Richard Felton, Thomas, ’ ”, Patrick Harker, Ross, Nordstrom, Michael Barr, Campbell Soup, Foot, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, National Association for Business Economics, Labor, CNN, Bank of America, White House’s Council, Economic Advisers, English Premier League, Chelsea, Burnley, Philadelphia Fed, Target, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, Abercrombie, Fitch, Financial Services, The Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Broadcom, Costco, Eagle Outfitters, Potbelly, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, European Central Bank, Cleveland Fed, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, San, Wells, United States, London, JD.com, Kroger, Burlington, DocuSign
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said the increase in foreign-born workers is "taking pressure off the economy." The growth in foreign-born workers comes amid a contentious immigration policy debate in the U.S. Immigrants' share of the labor force has increased since 1996, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics began collecting such data. A growing population and labor force are key components of a healthy economy and the nation's ability to pay its bills, economists said. In other words, the economy is both absorbing immigrants and generating job opportunities for U.S.-born workers, the institute said.
Persons: Mark Zandi, it's, Alejandro Mayorkas, John Moore, Muzaffar Chishti, Jack Malde, Qian Weizhong, Steven Camarota, Camarota, Paul Ratje, Eric Thayer, Malde, EPI, Zandi, There's, Luis Alvarez Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, Republicans, U.S, Department of Homeland, U.S . Border Patrol, U.S . Department of Homeland, Getty, Migration Policy Institute, CNBC, Foreign, U.S . Immigrants, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pew Research Center, Social Security, Congressional, Office, Center, Immigration, . Border Patrol, Getty Images, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Center for Immigration Studies, Afp, Bloomberg, Economic Policy Institute, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine, Digitalvision Locations: U.S, Mexico, Eagle Pass , Texas, San Diego , California, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Paso, Ciudad Juarez , Mexico, Los Angeles
Washington, DC CNN —The US economy is set to reap considerable benefits from Americans taking popular medications used for weight loss, including Ozempic and Wegovy, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a recent research report. Originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes, they proved to be highly effective at helping people shed weight in clinical trials. (Ozempic has not been approved for weight loss by regulators, though Wegovy, a similar drug, has.) Goldman Sachs argues that since poor health unambiguously weighs on the economy, improving health outcomes due to GLP-1s could lower costs and boost productivity, shoring up economic output. For some Americans who are obese but don’t have diabetes, obtaining those drugs has become difficult, if not impossible.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Eli Lilly, Jody Dushay, Beth, Doug Langa, they’ve Organizations: DC CNN, Government, Novo Nordisk, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical, CNN Locations: Washington, United States, North America, Novo
On the surface, it may seem simple — global stocks are rallying, so there must be one universal driver, right? When this happens, the yen should strengthen and improve shareholder value in Japanese stocks, Arone said. "All of that gives you the ingredients you need to push stocks higher — not only U.S. stocks, but global stocks — in the next 12 months or so," he said. "I think that international stocks — Japan, Europe — have more room to go. Similar to Kelly, Kleintop recommended a more broad-based approach to playing this global rally.
Persons: It's, Charles Schwab's, Jeffrey Kleintop, they've, David Kelly, Michael Arone, Kelly, Arone, , Kleintop, Fred Imbert Organizations: U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nikkei, CNBC, Nvidia, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Tokyo Stock Exchange, State, Locations: United States, U.S, Europe, Japan, Korea, China, Asia, America, Eastern Europe, — Japan
The US economy will see a surge in growth as more people start to take GLP-1 weight loss drugs. "The main reason we see economic upside from healthcare innovation is that poor health imposes significant economic costs," Goldman Sachs said. The more people that take GLP-1 weight loss drugs, the faster the US economy will grow, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs. The bank said in a note on Thursday that US GDP would grow by an extra 1% if 60 million Americans took GLP-1 drugs by 2028. There are several channels through which poor health weighs on economic activity that could diminish if health outcomes improve," Hatzius said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Eli Lilly, Goldman Organizations: Service, Goldman, Novo Nordisk
AdvertisementThat means the strong job numbers of recent months have largely been due to immigrants , specifically foreign-born workers, entering the workforce in large numbers. “Foreign-born labor force participants have accounted for all of the job growth over the last year,” Bill Adams, an economist at Comerica Bank, told The New York Times. AdvertisementAdditionally, he said these job gains haven’t come at the expense of US-born workers either. As of 2022, foreign-born workers were more likely than US-born workers to be in service, natural resources, construction, and maintenance jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of January, 65.7% of foreign-born workers were working or looking for work, compared to 61.4% of US-born workers.
Persons: , ” Bill Adams, Paul Krugman, “ They're, , Louis, Miguel Faria, Castro, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Business, Comerica Bank, New York Times, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Immigrants, Congressional, Office, St, Louis Fed
Some are sentenced to hard labor and forced to work – or face punishment – and are sometimes paid pennies an hour or nothing at all. While prison labor seeps into the supply chains of some companies through third-party suppliers without them knowing, others buy direct. The AP reached out for comment to the companies it identified as having connections to prison labor, but most did not respond. Corrections officials and other proponents note that not all work is forced and that prison jobs save taxpayers money. They also aren’t learning skills that will help them when they are released,” said law professor Andrea Armstrong, an expert on prison labor at Loyola University New Orleans.
Persons: They’re, they’ve, Russell Stover, Bunge, Louis Dreyfus, Archer Daniels, Cargill, ” McDonald’s, Mills, ” Bunge, they’re, , David Farabough, don’t, Andrea Armstrong, Columbia University’s Ira A, Lipman Organizations: Associated Press, Kroger, Target, Aldi, U.S, Walmart, Costco –, Washington, American Civil Liberties Union, AP, Maine Foods, Taylor Farms, Archer Daniels Midland, Consolidated, Foods, Corrections, Loyola University New Orleans, Public Welfare Foundation, Columbia, Lipman Center for Journalism, Arnold Ventures Locations: U.S, Idaho, In Kansas, Cal, Arizona, Tennessee , Arkansas, Ohio, Arkansas, Investigative@ap.org
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