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☆ Two key inflation reports this week will help decide the size of the Fed's interest rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Federal Reserve gets its last look this week at inflation readings before it will determine the size of a widely expected interest rate cut soon. On Wednesday, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its consumer price index report for August. With the issue virtually settled over whether the Fed is going to cut rates when it wraps up the next policy meeting Sept. 18, the only question is by how much. "Inflation data has taken a backseat to labor market data in terms of influence on Fed policy," Citigroup economist Veronica Clark said in a note. "But with markets — and likely Fed officials themselves – split on the appropriate size of the first rate cut on September 18, August CPI data could remain an important factor in the upcoming decision."

Persons: Veronica Clark, Dow Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, CPI, Citigroup, Fed, PPI

☆ August payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 142,000, but unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected. The labor force expanded by 120,000 for the month, helping push the jobless level down by 0.1 percentage point, though the labor force participation rate held at 62.7%. The household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate and is often more volatile than the survey of establishments, showed employment growth of 168,000. Markets showed little initial reaction to the data, with stock futures holding negative and Treasury yields also lower. While the August numbers were close to expectations, the previous two months saw substantial downward revisions.

Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Dan North Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, North America, Allianz Trade, Manufacturing Locations: U.S, Dow

☆ The Fed's preferred inflation indicator is out Friday. Here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

While the Fed uses a whole dashboard of indicators to measure inflation, the PCE index is its go-to data point and its sole forecasting tool when members release their quarterly projections. Policymakers especially hone in on the core PCE measure, which excludes food and energy, when making interest rate decisions. "To me, it's going to be just one more piece of evidence to confirm that the Fed is seeing sustainable inflation readings at a sustainable pace," said Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank. Any slight upticks are "really just base-effect kinds of things that aren't going to change the Fed's view." Fed officials aren't declaring victory over inflation yet, though recent statements indicate a more positive outlook.

Persons: Dow Jones, Beth Ann Bovino, aren't Organizations: Federal, Commerce Department, Fed, Labor, Dow, U.S . Bank

☆ Wholesale inflation measure rose 0.1% in July, less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A key measure of wholesale inflation rose less than expected in July, opening the door further for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates. Excluding volatile food and energy components, core PPI was flat. A further core measure that also excludes trade services showed an increase of 0.3%. Trade services prices fell 1.3% while margins for machinery and vehicles wholesaling tumbled 4.1%. An increase of 2.3% in portfolio management offset some of the decline in services prices.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, BLS, Trade Locations: Brooklyn, New York City

☆ The unemployment insurance program is unprepared for a recession, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

However, the system that workers rely on to collect unemployment benefits is at risk of buckling — as it did during the Covid-19 pandemic — if there's another economic downturn, experts say. Unemployment insurance provides temporary income support to laid-off workers, thereby helping prop up consumer spending and the broader U.S. economy during downturns. There's also wide variation among states — which administer the programs — relative to factors like benefit amount, duration and eligibility, according to the report, authored by more than two dozen unemployment insurance experts. Why the unemployment insurance program buckledJoblessness ballooned in the pandemic's early days. Claims for unemployment benefits peaked at more than 6 million in early April 2020, up from roughly 200,000 a week before the pandemic.

Persons: Joe Raedle, Michele Evermore, There's, Andrew Stettner, NASI, Stettner, haven't, Indivar Dutta, Gupta Organizations: Getty, The Century Foundation, U.S . Labor Department's, National Academy of Social Insurance, Labor, Labor Department, Roosevelt Institute Locations: Florida, Sunrise , Florida, U.S

☆ Treasury yields slide ahead of July jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was down by over 4 basis points at 3.933%, remaining below the 4%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last around 5 basis points lower at 4.116%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Friday as investors looked ahead to the July jobs report and digested the interest rate outlook. The U.S. Labor Department's jobs report for July is slated for Friday, and will provide investors with insights into the state of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve earlier in the week kept rates unchanged at their latest meeting but hinted that a September rate cut was on the table, sending Treasury yields lower.

Persons: Dow, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Labor, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Here's everything you need to know about Friday's big jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. labor market may have cooled some in July, as a gradual slowdown in the economy and Hurricane Beryl are expected to have taken some of the steam out of hiring. Still, even if the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report for July, to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. "You're seeing just modest on-the-margin weakness in the labor market that [isn't likely to] spiral out of control into a negative feedback loop." Citigroup projects an even lower number — 150,000 on payrolls and a tick higher in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Should the unemployment rate keep climbing, it could raise fears that the so-called Sahm Rule is in danger of being triggered.

Persons: Hurricane Beryl, nonfarm, Mike Reynolds, Dow Jones, Goldman Sachs, Beryl Organizations: Amerant, Hurricane, Labor, Federal, department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Citigroup Locations: Florida, Sunrise , Florida, The U.S, department's, Texas, Houston

☆ Treasury yields hold steady ahead of Fed rate decision, policy guidance
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by less than one basis point to 4.1316%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.3584% after dipping by less than one basis point. With the Fed meeting set to end on Wednesday, investors looked to the central bank's monetary policy announcement and the post-meeting press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Questions also remain over how many rate cuts could be implemented by the Fed this year. After this month's meeting, three more are in the calendar for the central bank in 2024.

Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, Fed, Labor, Survey

☆ Private payroll growth slowed to 122,000 in July, less than expected, ADP says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Private job growth slowed further in July while the pace of wage gains hit a three-year low, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added just 122,000 jobs on the month, the slowest pace since January and below the upwardly revised 155,000 in June. Several sectors reported net losses on the month. The ADP report comes two days before the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services releases its nonfarm payrolls count, which, unlike the ADP tally, includes government jobs. The two reports can differ substantially, with ADP overshooting the BLS estimate of 136,000 for private payrolls in June.

Persons: Dow Jones, Nela Richardson Organizations: FedEx, Broadway, Companies, ADP, Federal, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services Locations: New York City, Midwest

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in June, slightly hotter than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A measure of wholesale prices rose more than expected in June as Wall Street assesses when the Federal Reserve will feel comfortable cutting interest rates. The producer price index rose 0.2% last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. The PPI is a gauge of prices that producers can get for their goods and services in the open market. Friday's report comes shortly after the June consumer price index came in cooler than expected on Thursday. The Fed's preferred inflation reading is the personal consumption expenditure price index.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Port, Federal, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Traders Locations: Port of Los Angeles, San Pedro , California

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Tesla powers S&P 500, Nasdaq to record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Record highsThe S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs in a shortened session ahead of the July 4 Independence Day holiday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell as the latest economic data indicated the jobs market was cooling. Despite some officials advocating for potential rate hikes, the Federal Open Market Committee ultimately decided to hold rates steady. [PRO] Tesla bull caseWedbush analyst Dan Ives raised his Tesla price target to $300 from $275, with a bull case of $400 by 2025.

Persons: Nela Richardson, Elliott Management's, Elliott, Bob Jordan, Gary Kelly, JPMorgan's Kolanovic, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Dubravko, Dan Ives Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal, Market Committee, ADP, Southwest Airlines Locations: U.S

☆ We're changing our rating and price target on a beauty stock tied to China
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Downgrade : We're dropping Estee Lauder to our 2 rating from a buy-equivalent 1 rating and lowering our price target to $140 per share from $162. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Estee Lauder, Nicolas Hieronimus, Hieronimus, Lauder YTD, Lauder, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Apple, Microsoft, Nike, Management, L'Oreal, JPMorgan, Labor, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: China

☆ Amazon hit with $5.9 million fine for violating California labor law
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Annie Palmer | In Annierpalmer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

California's labor regulator on Tuesday said it fined Amazon nearly $6 million for violating a state law aimed at curtailing the use of onerous warehouse productivity quotas. The California Labor Commissioner's Office said it investigated two Amazon facilities in Moreno Valley and Redlands, both located east of Los Angeles, and found 59,017 violations of the state's Warehouse Quotas law, officials said. The Warehouse Quotas law went into effect in 2022 and requires employers to disclose productivity quotas to employees and government agencies, as well as any discipline workers may face for not meeting them. The law also prohibits employers from requiring warehouse employees to meet unsafe quotas preventing them from taking state-mandated meal and rest breaks or using the bathroom. The Labor Department's Occupational Safety and Health Administration has also cited Amazon numerous times for safety violations.

Persons: Lilia Garcia, Brower, Sen, Ed Markey, It's, Maureen Lynch Vogel, they're Organizations: Amazon, California Labor Commissioner's Office, Labor, Occupational Safety, Health Administration Locations: California, Moreno Valley, Redlands, Los Angeles, Washington, New York, Minnesota, U.S

☆ Welcome to the age of geriatric millionaires
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-15 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

While it makes sense that time is often a crucial ingredient to accruing savings and assets, the average age of millionaires in the US has been rising faster than the average age of the overall population over the last three decades. How millionaires are changingSince 1992, the average age of the country's millionaires has been going up. That means that younger millionaires aren't joining their ranks fast enough to keep the average age steady. Millionaires are overrepresented beginning around age 50, but track pretty cleanly with the cohort in their 40's. What does it mean to have so many older millionaires?

Persons: —, Chuck Collins, inequality.org, Collins, America's, aren't, Garrett Watson, that's, Watson, Xers, Gen Xers, they've, haven't, That's, It's, Ed Yardeni, They're, Redfin, King Charles, King Charles III of, it's, You've Organizations: Service, Business, Policy Studies, Forbes, Consumer, Millionaires, Tax, Security, Labor, Institute for Policy Studies Locations: United Kingdom

☆ Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell 0.2% in May
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A measure of wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased in May, adding another piece of evidence that inflation is pulling back. The producer price index, a gauge of prices that producers get for their goods and services in the open market, declined 0.2% for the month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the PPI was unchanged, compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase. From the wholesale perspective, the PPI was held back by a 0.8% decrease in final demand goods prices, which was the largest decline since October 2023. On the services side, fuels and lubricants retailing margins surged 12.2%, but that was offset in part by a 4.3% plunge in airline passenger services prices.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Stock, BLS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department

☆ U.S. adds a much-better-than-expected 272,000 jobs in May, but unemployment rate edges up to 4%
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4%, the first time it has breached that level since January 2022. The increase came even though the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.5%, down 0.2 percentage point. The survey of households used to compute the unemployment rate showed that the level of people who reported holding jobs fell by 408,000. A more encompassing unemployment figure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons held steady at 7.4%. The household survey also showed that full-time workers declined by 625,000, while those holding part-time positions increased by 286,000.

Persons: Dow Jones, you've, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Joe Raedle Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Getty Locations: U.S, Miami , Florida

☆ Job openings fell again in April, hitting lowest level since February 2021 in a sign of labor market weakening
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Job openings fell more than forecast in April, signaling a potential weakening in the labor market that could provide the Federal Reserve with more impetus to start lowering interest rates. The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released Tuesday showed that the level of employment vacancies slipped to 8.06 million for the month, down by nearly 300,000 from March and close to 19% lower than a year ago. The ratio of job openings to available workers edged down from 1.2 to 1, after being around 2 to 1 when openings peaked above 12 million in March 2022. Fed officials watch the JOLTS report closely for signs of labor market slack as they look for direction on monetary policy. While job openings slid, hires moved slightly higher as did separations and quits, a sign of worker confidence in the ability to move to other positions.

Persons: Dow Jones, nonfarm Organizations: Reserve, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

☆ Jim Cramer says the stock market is a 'work in progress' towards a rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-04 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer reviewed Tuesday's market action, suggesting to investors the moves may be a good setup for rate cuts. "You get a day like today, it's a work in progress toward a rate cut, hence why we rebounded in the late afternoon," he said. "We have days like today that are good setups for a rate cut, but that doesn't give us enough evidence to truly move the needle." Cramer also stressed that market action can't be explained in purely simple terms — even if such a fraught summation isn't satisfying. It doesn't make things simple," he said.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Friday's Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Why the market shifted to defense, plus the lingering hangover of Dell's backlog
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-04 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. "We can't seem to mount any sort of rally for the likes of Club stocks Eaton and Dover . As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, that's, Cramer, Jim, Dell, Brown, Forman, we'll, Jim Cramer's, Michael Dell, Kike Rincon Organizations: CNBC, Labor, Procter, Procter & Gamble, Costco, May, Services, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Dell Technologies, MWC, Mobile World Congress, Fira, Gran, Europa Press, Getty Locations: Procter &, Costco, Eaton, Dover, CrowdStrike, Campbell Soup, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain

☆ Cramer's week ahead: Labor report, plus Gitlab and Crowdstrike earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Friday told investors what to pay attention to next week on Wall Street, highlighting the nonfarm payroll report and earnings from GitlLab and CrowdStrike . Cramer said he's waiting to see how the company will perform because some in the enterprise software sector see issues with sales. Tuesday brings quarterly results from CrowdStrike, and Cramer said this cybersecurity company has been doing better than many of its peers. Friday brings perhaps the most important event of the week, according to Cramer, the Labor Department's nonfarm payroll report. Cramer said the Federal Reserve won't be inclined to cut rates until the unemployment rate reaches 4%.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, he's, Hewlett Packard, Ferguson, PVH, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Ralph Lauren, Campbell Soup, Jack Daniels, Brown, Forman, Lululemon, JM Smucker, Smucker Organizations: Dell, athleisure, Labor

☆ Fed's favorite inflation gauge is expected to show very slow progress on Friday
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Inflation is taking baby steps towards coming back to where policymakers want it, with a report due Friday expected to show more of that creeping progress. Core inflation is expected to have slowed to 0.2%, which would represent at least some further progress toward easing price pressure on weary consumers. "That said, getting to the Fed's 2% target is apt to be a bumpy landing." However, policymakers' expectations that housing inflation will cool this year have been largely thwarted, throwing another wrinkle into the debate. CPI inflation ran at 3.4% for the all-items measure in April and 3.6% for core, well above the Fed's target.

Persons: Dow Jones, Carol Schleif Organizations: Dow, BMO Family Office, Labor Locations: PCE

☆ U.S. inflation data fuels bets of Fed rate cuts as early as September — but analysts aren’t convinced
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders appear increasingly confident that the U.S. Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates as early as September, after inflation data cooled more than expected in April. Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 70% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Jerome Schneider, head of short-term portfolio management at PIMCO, said on Thursday that the latest U.S. inflation data confirmed to investors that the potential for a near-term rate hike was now "off the table." "I think more contextually, we have to really understand that we have celebrated a lower inflation rate, the market has. But, in context, at PIMCO we're specifically thinking about the longer-term trajectory of how the Fed is going to react to this data," Schneider told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."

Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Schneider, we're, Schneider, CNBC's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Traders, U.S . Federal, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, PIMCO

☆ Inflation eases in April with consumer prices rising 3.4% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services reported Wednesday. Excluding food and energy, the key core inflation reading came in at 0.3% monthly and 3.6% on an annual basis, both as forecast. The core 12-month inflation reading was the lowest since April 2021. Futures traders raised the implied probability that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in September. That figure is adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, suggesting consumers did not keep up with the pace of price increases.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services, Markets, Treasury, Federal Reserve

☆ Bitcoin is having its best day since March following cooler April inflation reading
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin is likely to remain rangebound and trade along with macro data points, until we see a clearer path for rate cut." Bitcoin jumped with stocks on Wednesday after the April consumer price index showed inflation eased from the previous month. The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Earlier this week, bitcoin also sat out a two-day revival of the meme stock craze. With Wednesday's gain, bitcoin is now up 7% for the week — its best week since March 29 — and on pace to break a six-week slide.

Persons: Owen Lau, Oppenheimer, bitcoin, Bitcoin, Dow Jones, Leena ElDeeb, ElDeeb, Jeff Cox, Nick Wells Organizations: CNBC, Metrics, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Investors

☆ Treasury yields fall ahead of fresh consumer inflation figures
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.8061% after falling by over one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Wednesday is investors considered the outlook for inflationary pressures and awaited the latest consumer price index data. The producer price index for April, which tracks wholesale prices, came in higher than expected on Tuesday. This comes ahead of the consumer price index for April which is expected to be released Wednesday. On an annual basis, inflation is anticipated to slow slightly to 3.4% from 3.5% in March.

Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Core CPI

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