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☆ CHART OF THE DAY: The stock market may have just bottomed
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market may have just bottomed, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Yardeni highlighted that the S&P 500 found support at its rising trend line that dates back to the March 2020 low. AdvertisementAdvertisementOur chart of the day is from market veteran Ed Yardeni, which plots the S&P 500 since 2018 and highlights a key rising trend line that could be acting as support for the stock market. Yardeni pointed to this chart in a Wednesday note to clients and argued that the stock market may have just bottomed. If the stock market did bottom this week, as Yardeni suggests, it would play into the bullish seasonals that typically drive the stock market higher into the end of the year.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, — Organizations: Service, Fed, LPL Research

☆ Premarket stocks: It’s a spooky Halloween for markets. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Here’s what’s causing the market fears:High bond yieldsSurging yields have contributed to one of the worst periods for bond market performance in history and pressured equity markets. The company reported quarterly profits of $9.9 billion, also beating estimates. Shares of Meta slid last week after the Facebook parent company reported that advertising revenue had been soft this quarter. Jerominski told CNN that there have been at least 25 store closures. Fraser Engerman, a Walgreens spokesperson, told CNN that just two stores closed on Monday and no more than 12 pharmacists walked out across the entire country.

Persons: Dow, Rob Almeida, ”, Jason Pride, “, don’t, Erik Weisman, Seema Shah, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Wall, Shane Jerominski, Jerominski, Fraser Engerman, Max —, Tim Cook, Apple Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Traders, Nasdaq, MFS Investment Management, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, LPL Research, JPMorgan, Big Tech, Meta, Facebook, Reality Labs, Google, CVS, Walgreens, Staff, CNN, Workers, Apple Locations: New York, United States, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, China, Arizona , Washington , Massachusetts, Oregon, Southern California, Chicago, Deerfield, Apple’s Cupertino , California

☆ The Treasury market is starting to price in the possibility of a US debt default in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Treasury market is starting to price in the possibility of a US debt default later this summer. The difference in yields between US Treasury bills maturing in May and July hit a record 1.49%. "Investors are likely demanding more to hold those securities at risk of delayed payment," LPL Research said. The one-month Treasury bill currently yields about 3.71%, compared to 5.14% for a 3-month Treasury bill. A similar scenario could play out this time as Republicans show no signs of working with Democrats to pass a debt limit increase, despite continued remarks from both sides of the aisle that a US debt default "is not an option."

Organizations: & ' +

☆ Wall St Week Ahead US inflation data to test market’s bets on future Fed easing
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Following last month’s banking crisis, investors have become more convinced the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the second half to ward off an economic downturn. That view could gain support if next week’s inflation reading shows a strong rise in consumer prices even after aggressive Fed rate hikes over the past year. The firm is recommending clients slightly underweight equities, expecting interest rate hikes to hit consumer spending and corporate profits. Bets on a more dovish Fed have boosted tech and growth stocks, whose future profits are discounted less when interest rates fall. “If the Fed was trying to protect investors, one way would be to cut rates," Hackett said.

Among these are equities’ positive January performance, a "golden cross" chart pattern on the S&P 500 and more stocks making new highs rather than new lows. Such signals are far from the only indicators market participants use to make investment decisions, and they are not foolproof. JANUARY JUMPThe S&P 500 rose 6.2% in January, driven in part by hopes that the Fed will be able to contain surging inflation without badly damaging the economy. GOLDEN CROSSMeanwhile, chart watchers noted that the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average rose above its 200-day moving average on Thursday, a pattern known as a golden cross. However, when a golden cross has appeared as the 200-day moving average is declining - as it is now - the average 12-month return for the S&P 500 jumps to 16.8%.

☆ Is the Fed 'going rogue'? Calls heat up to back off quest for 2% inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For at least a decade, the Federal Reserve's position that a 2% inflation rate is where the economy best functions has been taken as gospel. 'Going rogue' "As far as 2% is concerned, I think it's stupid," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group. Paulsen and Sternlicht aren't the only critics of Fed policy. Achieving a steady 2% inflation rate, however, has proven elusive for the Fed. 'The gold standard' for policy But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and most of his colleagues have rebuffed calls to raise the goal.

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