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☆ Kpler's Matt Smith on oil price forecast: The risk is to the upside
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKpler's Matt Smith on oil price forecast: The risk is to the upsideMatt Smith, Kpler lead analyst, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the oil market, oil price trend forecast, and more.

Persons: Matt Smith, Kpler

☆ Oil alliance OPEC+ could extend production cuts this weekend as focus shifts away from Middle East tensions, sources say
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( Ruxandra Iordache | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Thomas Coex | Afp | Getty ImagesThe oil-producing Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies could extend existing output cuts this week, delegates and analysts told CNBC, even as focus shifts from Middle East tensions to summer demand. OPEC+ producers are currently implementing a combined 5.86 million barrels per day of supply cuts. And then August is the peak month for tightness," Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC. "However, I think that the market right now has priced in a full extension of the voluntary cuts. A high-inflation environment and tight monetary policy in turn reined in oil demand, but central banks have signaled readiness to lower interest rates in the second half of the year.

Persons: Thomas Coex, Viktor Katona, overproducers, Jorge Leon, Yemen's, Tamas Varga Organizations: Organization of, Petroleum, Afp, Getty, CNBC, Energy, Market Research, PVM Oil Associates, United Arab Emirates Locations: OPEC, Vienna, China, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Paris, Ukraine, Gaza, Red, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Guyana, Brazil, Canada

☆ Fears of prolonged Red Sea shipping crisis fuel inflation fears, as oil, retail cargo delays rise
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Lori Ann Larocco | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

"If so, we expect the soaring freight rates and equipment shortage will continue till the third quarter," it advised clients. This would be on top of the revenue lost by diverted container vessels which are required to pay between $500,000-$600,000 per transit. "However, given the longer transit times vessels are experiencing, the market may face a shortage of empties across Asia until sailings normalize." Evelyn Fornes, Home Depot spokeswoman, said it is working with logistics carriers to find alternate routes to limit any impact from the Red Sea conflict. East Coast freight rates soar While freight rates for U.S. West Coast ports have yet to spike, freight rates for the East Coast and Gulf are up.

Persons: Folden, Shell, Jean, Charles Gordon, Nyttingnes, Torm, Euronav, Tom, Hafnia, Andy Lipow, Kuehn, Nagel, Ami Daniel, Goetz Alebrand, Stephen Schwarz, Paolo Montrone, Kuehn + Nagel, Alan Baer, Baer, Evelyn Fornes, Fornes, Lane Organizations: Galaxy, Houthis Media, Getty Images, Anadolu, Getty, U.S, Clarksons Securities, Honour Lane Shipping, Wall Street, Shell, Suez, Authority, Lipow Oil Associates, Logistics, CNBC, DHL Global, Asia Pacific, Kuehn, USA, Home, Costco, Walmart, Home Depot, Volvo, Michelin, Ikea, East, U.S . Locations: Iran, Yemen, Anadolu, Hafnia, Ardmore, Suez, Israel, Americas, Asia, Europe, Wells Fargo, Red, U.S, East Coast, U.S . West Coast, Gulf, East, West, West Coast

Oil and gas tanks are seen at an oil warehouse at a port in Zhuhai, China October 22, 2018. Reuters' analysis of China's savings on oil purchases from the three sanctioned countries compares what Chinese importers would have paid by purchasing similar grades from non-sanctioned producers. For imports of Venezuelan oil, mostly heavy grade Merey, China saved an average of $10 a barrel versus comparable Colombian Castilla crude, the calculations based on the trader data showed. With January-September inflows of Venezuelan oil at around 430,000 bpd, according to the average of the Vortexa and Kpler data, China's savings from buying Venezuelan oil was $1.17 billion. TEAPOT MARGINSWith state refiners Sinopec and PetroChina refraining entirely from buying Iranian and Venezuelan crude, teapots have feasted on discounted oil from the two suppliers.

Persons: Aly, Kang Wu, Brent, Viktor Katona, Chen Aizhu, Muyu Xu, Tony Munroe Organizations: REUTERS, refiners, Reuters, P, Administration, Customs, Vortexa, Russia's, Castilla, Brent, U.S . State Department, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Zhuhai, China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, SINGAPORE, United States, Moscow, Tehran, Caracas, East, West Africa, South America, Beijing, Kpler, Kozmino, Baltic, Ukraine, Europe, India, Brazil, Urals, Oman, U.S, Venezuelan, teapots, Shandong, Israel

India, the world's third biggest oil importer and consumer, also raised imports from Iraq while taking less Saudi oil, the data showed. India imported about 1.55 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in September, 16% more than in August, while imports from Iraq increased by 17% to about 1.1 million bpd, LSEG data showed. Vortexa pegged imports of Russian oil at 1.52 million bpd, compared with 1.44 million bpd in August. India's Saudi Oil Imports surged in Aug, Russia fell to 7-mth lowAccording to Kpler data, India's imports of Russian crude jumped back to 1.8 million bpd in September from less than 1.5 million bpd in August. They mostly purchase Russian oil on the spot market, while largely relying on term contracts for Middle Eastern crude.

Persons: Viktor Katona, Kpler's Katona, Nidhi Verma, Mohi Narayan, Arpan Varghese, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Saudi Oil Imports, Thomson Locations: DELHI, Russia, LSEG, India, Iraq, Kpler, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — A Greek shipper has pleaded guilty to a charge over it smuggling sanctioned Iranian crude oil and agreed to pay a $2.4 million fine, U.S. federal court papers seen Thursday by The Associated Press show. In July, the top commander of the Revolutionary Guard’s naval arm threatened further action against anyone offloading the Suez Rajan, with state media linking the recent seizures to the cargo’s fate. In its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, Iran regained the ability to sell oil openly on the international market. It also began a cat-and-mouse hunt for Iranian oil cargo — as well as series of escalating attacks attributed to Iran since 2019. China is believed to be a major buyer of Iranian oil, likely at a significant discount.

Persons: shipper, Tourkantonis, Mark Wallace, George W, Bush, “, ” Wallace, Biden, Suez Rajan, Donald Trump Organizations: United Arab Emirates, Associated Press, Navigation, U.S, Nuclear, Empire, United Nations, Nuclear Iran, AP, Suez, Chevron Corp, Revolutionary, Embassy, U.S . Navy, Iranian, “ Locations: DUBAI, United Arab, Suez, Islamic Republic, Tehran, Washington, South Korea, Iran, U.S, Nuclear Iran, Persian, South, Singapore, Mexico, Houston , Texas, Athens, Greece, Gulf of Mexico, America, Hormuz, Swiss, Switzerland, Bataan, Strait, Gulf of Oman, China

Pakistan paid for its first Russian crude cargo in Chinese yuan. "How will it pay other lenders and how will it finance trade with China if it uses the low yuan reserves to pay for Russian oil?" However, Urals quality is a deterrent, as Pakistan's refineries cannot get as much gasoline and diesel out of Urals crude as they produce from Saudi and UAE crudes. Kpler's Katona expects Pakistan's liquidity issues and technical challenges to weigh on its appetite for Russian crude. "Russian imports into Pakistan will not grow into anything bigger than one cargo per month," he said.

Persons: Shahbaz Ashraf, Aadil Nakhoda, Nakhoda, Viktor Katona, Zahid Mir, Mir, PRL, Kpler's Katona, Ariba Shahid, Charlotte Greenfield, Florence Tan, Sonali Paul Organizations: Pakistan, United, FRIM Ventures, Karachi's Institute of Business Administration, Saudi, Pakistan Refinery Ltd, Reuters, Thomson Locations: KARACHI, Pakistan, Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Islamabad, Moscow, China, PORT, Oman, Saudi Arab, Saudi, UAE, Karachi, Sudarshan, Singapore

☆ India's reliance on Russian oil may be 'approaching a limit'
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Dhiraj Singh | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesIndia's ability to import more Russian oil may have hit a limit for the rest of the year, analysts tell CNBC, citing infrastructural and political constraints, as well as limitations to Russian oil flows. Since the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine in February last year, India's refiners have been snapping up discounted Russian oil. Moscow has since leapfrogged to become India's leading source of crude oil, accounting for about 40% of India's crude imports. June marked the 10th consecutive month-on-month increase in India's imports of Russian crude, data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler showed. And that's the highest volume that India's imports of Russian oil can go — at least for the rest of the year, according to his predictions.

Persons: Dhiraj Singh, Janiv Shah, India's, Kpler, Viktor Katona, Daniel Hynes, Rystad Energy's Shah, Katona, Hynes, that's, Kpler's Organizations: Bharat Petroleum Corp, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Rystad Energy, ANZ, India's Petroleum, International Energy Agency, Kpler Locations: Mumbai, India, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Asia, Kpler Russia

☆ A global commodities rout is fueling fears of a bleak economic future
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Global commodities have seen a more than 20% slump compared to the same period last year, as reflected by the S&P GSCI Commodities index. Prices of commodities like crude oil and iron ore have been sliding this year, underlining a continuing economic rout across the globe and possible recession risks, market watchers told CNBC. Global commodities have seen a more than 25% slump over the last 12 months as reflected by the S&P GSCI Commodities index — a benchmark measuring the wider performance of various commodity markets. But the overall slide for the index is likely pointing to a global economic slowdown and a recession, analysts say, as China's Covid-19 rebound loses momentum. "It is my belief that this will flow through to a broader decline in economic activity, especially in the West," I'Anson added.

Persons: China's, Reid I'Anson, I'Anson Organizations: CNBC, Global Locations: U.S, Europe

LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 30 (Reuters) - Asia's imports of seaborne thermal coal surged to the highest on record in May as cheaper prices tempted buyers in the region's developing economies. This is the most in Kpler data going back to January 2017, while Refinitiv data also shows record imports in May in data stretching back to January 2015. Rising thermal coal imports come as seaborne prices for the fuel continue to decline, with two of the more popular grades slipping to 16-month lows in the week to May 26. While lower prices and rising electricity demand are driving thermal coal imports in developing Asia, the advanced economies in north Asia are experiencing their usual seasonal lull between winter and summer peaks. Fourth-ranked South Korea will import 6.03 million tonnes in May, down from 6.70 million in April and 6.42 million in March.

☆ Why the stock market's running of the bulls might be about to kick off
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Optimists rejoice — Wall Street strategists just pinpointed a handful of trends, indicators, and gauges that all suggest 2023 could see a new running of the bulls. The S&P 500 has already seen a sturdy 8% gain to start 2023, but year-end gains could be even bigger if one of BofA's bullish surprises pan out. "The S&P 500 has now spent more than 25 weeks above its 200-week moving average," Lee said. "Since 1950, there are zero instances of the S&P 500 making a new low once it has recovered above the 200-week moving average and spent at least 15 weeks there." US stock futures rise early Monday, as investors brace for a crucial week of earnings reports to weigh recession risks.

☆ China and India are buying so much Russian oil that Moscow's now selling more crude than it was before invading Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia's exports of crude oil have now surpassed the volumes hit before its invasion of Ukraine. China and India account for roughly 90% of Russia's seaborne crude exports, Kpler data shows. Europe now takes in only 8% of Russia's oil exports, per Kpler. Behind China and India, Turkey and Bulgaria are the biggest buyers of Russian crude. Even before Vladimir Putin launched his war on Ukraine, China was already a top buyer of Russian crude, importing 25% of its crude from the country in 2021.

The gains are being driven by restocking by steel mills in China, which buys about 70% of global seaborne iron ore and produces half of the world's steel. It's worth noting that stockpiles remain well below the same week last year, when they were at 160.95 million tonnes. Australia's iron ore exports are likely to drop in February, with Kpler estimating shipments of 57.7 million tonnes, while Refinitiv is forecasting 58.74 million. While Australia and Brazil dominate the global seaborne iron ore trade, it's worth noting that other exporters aren't adding much to the overall supply story. The supply shortage and expectations of increasing Chinese demand are likely to provide a solid base for further gains in spot iron ore prices.

☆ U.S. crude stocks rise as production climbs to highest since April 2020
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HOUSTON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil stocks rose last week to their highest level since June 2021, helped by higher production, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) rose by 2.4 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 3 to 455.1 million barrels, close to the 2.5 million-barrel rise that analysts expected in a Reuters poll. U.S. oil production rose 100,000 barrels to touch 12.3 million, its highest since April 2020. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub (USOICC=ECI) rose by 1 million barrels in the last week while net U.S. crude imports (USOICI=ECI) rose by 367,000 barrels per day, the EIA said. U.S. gasoline stocks (USOILG=ECI) rose by 5 million barrels to 239.6 million barrels, the EIA said, far surpassing the 1.3 million barrel rise that analysts expected in a Reuters.

☆ A top oil analyst explains Europe’s new fuel sanctions on Russia and how that impacts global energy markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The flow of crude oil is seen in a container while an oilfield worker works on a drilling rig at an oil well operated by Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA Carlos Garcia Rawlins/ReutersMatt Smith is the lead oil analyst at Kpler. Phil Rosen: This week the EU has new sanctions and a price cap kicking in on Russian oil products, such as diesel. MS: They're one of the leading producers and leading exporters in the world, so we shouldn't expect that to change. What will influence this is how long this war goes on, and how detrimental that is to its energy industry. Demand for cardboard boxes has dropped to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.

☆ Iron ore prices could rally as one leading producer remains reluctant to share, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"Indian iron ore exports … have really come off in the last few months. India's exports of iron ore plunged by 90% year on year in October last year, and recorded an year-on-year decline as steep as 96% in September. Udit Kulshrestha | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAccording to Refinitiv, around 60% of global iron ore exports are destined for China. Iron ore exports from India were affected by a 50% tax on low-grade iron ore exports, which was reversed in late November. India's iron ore exports won't be the biggest factor in price volatility, however.

While the Chinese ban has been lifted, it's unlikely that buyers will flock back to Australian thermal coal, given the availability of cheaper, and similar quality, coal from Russia. The weakness in prices wasn't limited to Australian thermal coal, with Indonesian grades also dropping. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, while Australia ranks second and Russia third. Russian thermal coal from Vostochny port, which is largely being bought by China after Japan curbed imports following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has also been weakening. Prices for Indonesia, Russia and Australia thermal coalVOLUMES SLIPThe softer prices for thermal coal are occurring as demand for seaborne cargoes appears to be weakening among Asia's top two importing nations.

☆ China's Covid reopening may not produce a strong rebound in energy demand, says Kpler's Matt Smith
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's Covid reopening may not produce a strong rebound in energy demand, says Kpler's Matt SmithKpler's Lead Oil Analyst Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at the Americas at Kepler, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down his expectations for global energy prices in 2023 and more.

There are signs, however, that LNG demand is ticking higher ahead of winter, with commodity analysts Kpler estimating November imports in both Asia and Europe to rise. LNG imports by Asia, Europe vs JKM priceEUROPE BUYING AGAINEurope's imports are expected to reach 11.49 million tonnes in November, which would be the second-highest in Kpler's records behind the 11.55 million tonnes in January. Europe's LNG imports were 10.13 million tonnes in October, which was the first time since May they had exceeded 10 million tonnes in a month. The United States remains Europe's biggest supplier, with imports of 4.66 million tonnes expected in November, up from 4.17 million in October. Europe's imports of Russian LNG are continuing, with arrivals of 1.32 million tonnes in November, up from 1.05 million in October.

☆ Crisis-hit Sri Lanka — which ran out of fuel earlier this year — snaps up cheap Russian oil for the first time ever
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Sri Lanka has been buying large amounts of Russian crude since March 2022. Three months ago, Sri Lanka said it was sending an official delegation to Russia to negotiate oil deals amid a crippling fuel shortage. But it's just one of the emerging markets dealing with economic crises now lining up to buy discounted Russian oil. It's unlikely that Sri Lanka had ever purchased Russian crude before March this year, Kpler's lead crude analyst Viktor Katona said. The US has banned Russian crude and the European Union set to implement an oil embargo on Russian oil by the end of the year.

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