But the short-term interest rates the Fed controls directly have already risen sharply since early 2022 — from near zero to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent now.
And while a rate increase may be unlikely this month, for short-term traders, the big questions remain: Is the Fed done, and when will interest rates finally decline?
An Unheralded RecordFor one thing, the interest rate environment is unusual.
Short-term rates — specifically, for 3-month Treasuries — are higher than those of longer duration — particularly, for 10-year Treasuries.
In financial jargon, this is a classic “inverted yield curve,” and it often predicts a recession at some point in the future.
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