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In recent weeks, banks have stepped up efforts to prevent such losses, according to commercial real estate (CRE) analysts and industry data. The 23 largest U.S. banks held 20% of office and downtown retail CRE loans, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Small banks also have high exposure to CRE loans as a percentage of their assets. About $2.1 billion of office loans pooled in CMBS matured in May, almost double the total amount from January through April, for example. If borrowers agreed to loan extensions, some $10.8 billion of office loans maturing this year would be pushed to later years, Moody's said.
Persons: Shaishav Agarwal, Agarwal, Steve Jellinek, Moody's, Kevin Fagan, Fagan, ” Fagan, Eliasaf, , Banks, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Matt Tracy, Paritosh Bansal, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal, Manhattan, Northwind, Thomson Locations: York
"There's a lot of headaches about calamity in commercial real estate," said Kevin Fagan, director of commercial real estate analysis at Moody's Analytics. But credit in commercial real estate has performed well until now, and it's far from clear that U.S. credit issues spreading outward from real estate is likely. Analysts raised concerns that developers might default on a big chunk of $3.1 trillion of U.S. commercial real estate loans Goldman Sachs says are outstanding. "We're well aware of the concentrations people have in commercial real estate," Powell said at a March22 press conference. But there are reasons to believe lending issues in commercial real estate will be contained, Fagan said.
Three experts tell Insider office prices need to fall before conversions are commonplace. But for these plans to be successful, the world of real estate must address the elephant in the room: Office buildings are simply too expensive. Moody's laid out some basic math: In 2021, the average New York apartment building traded at $434 a square foot. Now in the US, he's up to the same business but not yet with the vacant office buildings that dot the downtowns of large metropolises. Among them is an older, 130,000-square-foot St. Louis office building, which represents some of the city's most outdated stock, Rubin told Insider.
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