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The Wall Street bank, in an overhaul to a number of its forecasts for Turkey, said stabilising the economy "will require a large, and we think discontinuous, adjustment to the exchange rate." While guidance was for the monetary policy framework was still missing at this stage, the bank noted, a "fully orthodox policy-maker" would allow the exchange rate to adjust upfront and would raise the repo rate to a level where it anchored interest rates in the economy. "In our view, this suggests that an orthodox policy-maker would raise rates to 40%, the current level of deposit rates," Clemens Grafe said in a note to clients. Grafe added that once the exchange rate and inflation expectations stabilised, rates could be lowered quickly, possibly to 25% by end-year. Goldman Sachs also cut Turkey's GDP forecast to 2.3% year-on-year in 2023, from previously 2.9%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Mehmet Simsek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Clemens Grafe, Grafe, Karin Strohecker, Dhara Organizations: Thomson Locations: Turkey
LONDON, June 9 (Reuters) - Turkey's new central bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan faces the tough task of alleviating a bruising cost-of-living crisis while hoping to restore investor confidence at home and abroad after years of unorthodox policymaking. Appointed on Friday, the 43-year old is the first woman at the helm of the country's central bank, taking over from Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded President Tayyip Erdogan's rate-cutting drive against a backdrop of soaring inflation. Her new role makes her one of only around a dozen women currently serving as central bank governors around the world, including the likes of ECB President Christine Lagarde, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and Serbia's Jorgovanka Tabakovic. Having spent all of her professional life outside Turkey, Erkan has no formal central banking experience, making her leanings for monetary policy unclear. Kathryn Wylde, president and CEO of Partnership for New York City, a nonprofit organization where Erkan once served as a board director, says Erkan was seen as "tough, smart, and effective."
Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Sahap Kavcioglu, Tayyip Erdogan's, Christine Lagarde, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Erkan, Goldman Sachs, Mark Carney, Mario Draghi, William Dudley, Goldman, Marsh McLennan, Kathryn Wylde, Wylde, Karin Strohecker, Jonathan Spicer, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Russian Central Bank Governor, Bogazici University, Harvard Business School's, Management, Research, Financial Engineering, Princeton University, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, New York Fed, First Republic Bank, Banking, Finance, New, Thomson Locations: Sahap, Istanbul, Turkey, New York City
TRYing times: The slide and fall of the Turkish lira
  + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Marc Jones | )   time to read: +5 min
The central bank is however widely expected to get a new head in the coming days. Turkey's economy is no stranger to boom-and-bust cycles, oscillating between double-digit growth and contraction rates in recent years. 3/INFLATION PALPITATIONSA tumbling lira will fan fears over a fresh spike in inflation in the country which only last year saw it top 80%. "It's just so inevitable," Abrdn's head of local currency emerging market debt, Kieren Curtis, said referring to the lira's slump this week. He did add however that the compensation would be paid to depositors in lira rather than dollars or euros and that bill would be split between the Treasury and Central Bank.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Ulrich Leuchtmann, Hasnain Malik, Erdogan, Tellimer's Malik, Kieren Curtis, Frank Gill, Tayyip Erdogan's, Karin Strohecker, David Evans Organizations: Wall, JPMorgan, FX, Reuters Graphics Reuters, International Monetary Fund, P Global, Treasury, Central Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Commerzbank, Frankfurt, Tellimer
ACCRA/LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - Ghana has sent a debt restructuring proposal to its official creditors, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, as the West African country battles to escape its worst economic crisis in a generation. Ghana intends to finish restructuring its domestic debt before turning to negotiations with its official, bilateral creditors and international bondholders, a government official said. The total external debt stock was about $30 billion. Ghana completed a domestic debt exchange with 65% of holders of local bonds in February and is also seeking relief on the bulk of the remainder of its domestic debt, including deals with pension funds, labour unions and independent power producers. It is restructuring its debt under the Common Framework process, set up by the G20 in 2020 to bring China and other newer creditor nations into joint sovereign debt restructuring negotiations, for its external debt rework.
Persons: Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Rachel Savage, Karin Strohecker, Nick Macfie Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Paris Club, Thomson Locations: ACCRA, LONDON, Ghana, West, China, Rosario
LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - There are some signs of de-dollarisation emerging right now, but the dollar should retain its "large footprint" for the foreseeable future, JPMorgan currency strategists said in a note on Monday. The dollar's share of traded currency volumes is just shy of record highs, at 88%, while the euro's share has shrunk by 8 percentage points in the last decade to a record low of 31%. The share of the Chinese yuan, meanwhile, has risen to a record high of 7%. "De-dollarisation is evident in FX reserves where (the dollar's) share has declined to a record as share in exports declined, but is still emerging in commodities," the strategists said. Reporting by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Karin StroheckerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Meera Chandan, Octavia Popescu, Amanda Cooper, Karin Strohecker Organizations: Thomson
LONDON, June 4 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs revised its Turkish lira forecast in the wake of President Tayyip Erdogan't cabinet revamp, saying it now expected the currency to weaken to 28 to the dollar in 12 months compared with a previous prediction of 22. The bank said it expected the lira to weaken to 23.00, 25.00 and 28.00 to the dollar in three, six and 12 months respectively. This compared to a previous forecast of 19.00, 21.00 and 22.00 respectively. Depending on events, the 28.00 to the dollar level could be reached in less than a year, the analysts said. Equally, a larger-than-expected rate adjustment could mean that the Lira may need to weaken by less than forecast, they added.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Tayyip Erdogan't, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Karin Strohecker, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Thomson
At the height of the tightening cycle in September last year, eight central banks hiked rates by a cumulative 550 bps. Year-to-date, G10 central banks have delivered 21 rate hikes and tightened by a total of 725 bps. That compares with 54 rate hikes in the whole of 2022 and 2,700 bps of rate hikes. Developed markets interest ratesMeanwhile, emerging markets were slightly further advance in the cycle with some central banks changing tack to easing mode. That compares with 11 meetings in April, where two central banks delivered a total of 50 bps.
Persons: Jean Boivin, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, Hugh Lawson Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, BlackRock Investment Institute, UN, Thomson Locations: Australia, New Zealand, Norway, BlackRock, Israel, South Africa, Thailand, Malaysia, Hungary
NEW YORK/LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - A bill backed by debt justice campaigners and civil society groups advocating on behalf of economically distressed countries could alter past and future sovereign debt restructurings covered by New York state law - and Wall Street is watching. Senate Bill S4747, the NY Taxpayer and International Debt Crises Protection Act, "relates to New York state's support of international debt relief initiatives for certain developing countries." The initiative has so far failed to accelerate debt relief talks, while private creditors are not even formally included in this initiative. It would "bring badly needed improvements to the framework for resolving unsustainable sovereign debt burdens," according to Nobel Prize-winning U.S. economist Joseph Stiglitz. If this bill passes, "I would recommend issuers not go through New York law, (but) through London or any other jurisdiction," said Rodrigo Olivares-Caminal, professor of banking and finance law at Queen Mary University of London.
Persons: Bill S4747, Alexander Flood, Patricia Fahy, Kathy Hochul, Joseph Stiglitz, Rishikesh Ram Bhandary, THE BILL, Rodrigo Olivares, Caminal, Rodrigo Campos, Jorgelina, Karin Strohecker, Aurora Ellis Organizations: NY Taxpayer, Senate, Institute of International Finance, Paris Club, China, WHO, Economic, Initiative, Boston, Global, Policy, THE, Queen Mary University of London, Thomson Locations: New York, United States, Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Zambia, Rishikesh, London, Paris, Brazil, Argentina, Rosario
LONDON, May 31 (Reuters) - A decline in labour growth and expected fall in the working age population will be a drag on emerging economies already suffering from fading growth prospects, BlackRock's Global Head of Emerging Markets Amer Bisat told Reuters. "Demographic used to be a tailwind in emerging markets. The golden age for emerging markets, which started at the turn of the century, had come to a swift end after the 2008 financial crisis, Bisat said. While the asset class remained "investable and interesting", the days of putting money to work in all emerging markets assets are over. Bisat also said BlackRock's emerging markets team was focused on building a research library, to include both better data and models on how to use and analyse it.
Persons: BlackRock's, Markets Amer Bisat, Bisat, Karen Leiton, Jorgelina, Rosario, Karin Strohecker, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Markets Amer, Reuters, Labor, Thomson Locations: Mexico, Brazil
Lira hits record low as Turkey prepares for new cabinet
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( )   time to read: +2 min
ISTANBUL, May 31 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira tumbled on Wednesday to a fresh record low against the dollar as President Tayyip Erdogan prepared to decide the shape of his new cabinet and the direction of economic policy after an election triumph. In its third successive day of losses, the lira weakened nearly 1.5% to a record of 20.75 against the U.S. currency, taking its losses this year to nearly 10%. Investors have been concerned about the sustainability of Turkey's unorthodox economic policies as it followed a low-rate programme championed by Erdogan. A Reuters poll forecast the economy to have expanded 3.9% in the first quarter, with growth of 2.8% in 2023. Reporting by Ezgi Erkoyun; Additional reporting by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Tom Hogue and Clarence FernandezOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Ezgi Erkoyun, Karin Strohecker, Tom Hogue, Clarence Fernandez Organizations: KNG Securities, Turkish Statistical, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL
LONDON, May 30 (Reuters) - The cost of insuring exposure to a U.S. debt default fell further on Tuesday, reflecting investor optimism over a tentative deal by U.S. lawmakers to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Trading picked up on Tuesday after much of Europe and the United States were closed on Monday for holidays. U.S. five-year CDS fell to 41 bps from 56 bps at Monday's close, the data showed. Some investors though remained apprehensive about the debt limit agreement, as some of the proposed bill's provisions could undermine economic growth. "We suspect these fears are likely overdone," wrote Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Karl Schamotta, Schamotta, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker Organizations: U.S, P Global Market Intelligence, Democratic, Republican, U.S . Treasury Department, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, United States, Monday's, ., Toronto
Turkish lira teeters near record low as Erdogan secures victory
  + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( )   time to read: +3 min
[1/2] A U.S. one dollar banknote is seen next to Turkish lira banknotes in this illustration taken in Istanbul, Turkey November 23, 2021. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/IllustrationLONDON, May 29 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira wobbled near record lows against the dollar as President Tayyip Erdogan secured victory in the country's presidential election on Sunday, extending his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade. The currency was at 20.05 to the dollar during Asian hours, just shy of the 20.06 record low hit on Friday. "Only the most optimistic would hope that Erdogan now feels sufficiently secure politically to revert to orthodox economic policy." "Erdogan is unlikely to embrace an outright economic orthodox approach," Wolfango Piccoli, co-president at advisory firm Teneo said in emailed comments.
[1/2] A U.S. one dollar banknote is seen next to Turkish lira banknotes in this illustration taken in Istanbul, Turkey November 23, 2021. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/IllustrationLONDON, May 29 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira hit fresh record lows against the dollar on Monday, though stocks rallied, after President Tayyip Erdogan secured victory in Sunday's presidential election, extending his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade. The lira weakened to 20.077 to the dollar, breaking through the previous record low touched on Friday. The share of foreign asset managers holding Turkish stocks has dwindled in recent years and the market is chiefly driven by local investors. The nation's dollar bonds slipped to their lowest in at least six months last week, while CDS rose to a seven-month high.
The nation is grappling with a cost of living crisis, a plunging currency and depleted foreign reserves. MARKET REACTION:LIRA: The Turkish currency touched a fresh record low of 20.105 on Monday. "In a scenario where Turkey ran out of foreign currency, lira’s value would likely collapse, inflation would explode and goods shortages could occur. A painful crisis affecting all assets is on the way, with very high inflation, very low interest rates and no net foreign reserves. Only the most optimistic would hope that Erdogan now feels sufficiently secure politically to revert to orthodox economic policy."
Turkish lira slips as Erdogan claims victory
  + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( )   time to read: +1 min
[1/2] A U.S. one dollar banknote is seen next to Turkish lira banknotes in this illustration taken in Istanbul, Turkey November 23, 2021. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/IllustrationLONDON, May 28 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira slipped towards a fresh record low against the dollar as President Tayyip Erdogan claimed victory in the country's presidential election on Sunday, a win that would steer his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade. The currency opened at 20.05 to the dollar as the new trading week got underway, not far off the 20.06 record low hit on Friday. Trading is expected to be thin on Monday, with many markets in Europe, as well as the United States closed for holidays. Reporting by Karin Strohecker and Ezgi Erkoyun, editing by Alexander Smith and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
JOHANNESBURG, May 18 (Reuters) - Ghana is targeting $10.5 billion of external debt service relief from 2023-2026, the IMF said, giving an early indication of how large a hit investors might face in an impending debt overhaul. "Our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that this translates to a 40%-50% haircut on external debt, if there is not further restructuring of domestic debt," Bojosi Morule, an economist at Goldman Sachs, said in emailed reaction to the DSA. Ghana's already strained finances buckled under the fallout of COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine and it is now seeking to restructure $20 billion of its roughly $30 billion external debt, including about $13 billion of Eurobonds, under the Group of 20's Common Framework platform. Earlier this year it completed a domestic debt exchange. Other risks include Ghana not regaining market access to issue debt and the domestic debt exchange posing dangers to financial sector stability, the IMF said.
[1/2] A view shows the logo of Credit Suisse on a building near the Hallenstadion in Zurich, Switzerland, April 4, 2023. REUTERS/Pierre AlbouyLONDON, May 18 (Reuters) - A European body that reviews disputes in the credit default swaps market said on Thursday it will discuss whether a bankruptcy credit event occurred at Credit Suisse after regulators wiped out the bank's junior bondholders in a state-assisted merger with UBS . The EMEA Credit Derivatives Determination Committee (CDDC) said it will meet on Friday to discuss the fresh question raised by an investor on Thursday, it said on its website. A number of circumstances can constitute a credit event, which - if confirmed by the CDDC - could trigger a payout on credit default swaps which insure against losses from exposure to corporate or sovereign debt. On Wednesday, the CDDC ruled in response to another question that a Governmental Intervention credit event had not occurred, closing down one of the ways CDS holders were pursuing to secure a payout.
LONDON, May 18 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira weakened to a record low against the dollar on Thursday, after incumbent Tayyip Erdogan's lead in presidential elections surprised markets, while the nation's sovereign dollar bonds steadied after a three-day post-election rout. The cost of insuring the country's debt against default fell slightly, but equity markets and banking stocks endured fresh losses in afternoon trading. The lira weakened to a record low of 19.8050 to the dollar by 1904 GMT, bringing its losses since the election to more than 1%. The 2045 bond gained close to one cent to trade at just over 70 cents on the dollar by 1300 GMT, Tradeweb data showed. Credit default swaps, which measure the cost of insuring the country's debt against default, narrowed by 8 basis points (bps) by mid afternoon, to 684 bps, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed.
LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - Holders of credit insurance linked to Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) bonds will not get a payout after a committee that adjudicates on disputes in the derivatives market said on Wednesday the bank's state-engineered merger with UBS did not constitute a credit event. The CDDC said it had come to the conclusion following an examination of the ranking clauses for the AT1 bonds listed in the request made by the investor. The investor said the AT1 bonds were pari passu, in other words ranking at the same level, with the reference bond underlying the CDS contracts, which included a subordinated bond that matured in 2020. A panel of eleven finance companies, including Barclays, Citibank, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs as well as Elliot Investment Management and PIMCO came to a unanimous decision, the CDDC statement said. Credit Suisse, which is still listed as a member of the EMEA CDDC on the group's website, was not listed as having taken part in the decision.
Erdogan got 49.5% in Sunday's vote and fell just short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff in a vote seen as a referendum on his autocratic rule. But many of his supporters, including first-time voter Asim, were gloomy about Kilicdaroglu's chances in the runoff vote. The election is being closely followed in Washington, Europe and across the region, where Erdogan has asserted Turkish power. Opinion polls had shown Erdogan trailing Kilicdaroglu, but Sunday's outcome suggested he and his Islamist-rooted AKP were able to rally conservative voters despite Turkey's economic woes. Kilicdaroglu and his alliance want to restore a parliamentary system of government and scrap the powerful executive presidency introduced by Erdogan.
Ahead of the elections, opinion polls had showed Kilicdaroglu in the lead, and investors expected him to scrap some of Erdogan's economic policies, including costly efforts to prop up the lira currency. Longer-dated, dollar-denominated government bonds saw the biggest falls in fixed income markets, although key corporate and banking sector bonds also edged lower. Credit ratings agency Fitch said the political and economic uncertainty would continue at least until after the runoff. Banking stocks, which had surged in the week ahead of the election on hopes of a policy change, tumbled another 8% (.XBANK) to take their losses since the election to nearly 20%. The overall Istanbul bourse index (.XU100), which had notched a 6.1% fall on Monday, its largest daily percentage drop since early February, was mostly flat.
Take Five: A summit with a ceiling
  + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( )   time to read: +5 min
That would complicate a reported side summit with Japan and South Korea on strengthening security cooperation. Reuters Graphics4/ DATA DIVEA batch of key economic data will shed fresh light on whether the United States is staving off a downturn given Federal Reserve rate hikes. Tuesday's retail sales data will gauge the health of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity. Retail sales fell more than expected in March, as consumers cut back on buying motor vehicles and other big-ticket items. A Reuters poll of economists showed a median projection of U.S. retail sales growing 0.7% in April from the previous month, after two straight months of decline.
[1/2] Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wave flags outside the AK Party headquarters, in Ankara, Turkey May 15, 2023. DEBT: Five-year credit default swaps jumped over 100 basis points from Friday and dollar bonds fell more than 7 cents. STOCKS: Borsa Istanbul issued a market-wide circuit breaker after the benchmark index (.XU100) dropped 6.38% in pre-market trading and was last down 2.7%. PIOTR MATYS, SENIOR FOX ANALYST, IN TOUCH CAPITAL MARKETS, POLAND:"When/if President Erdogan is re-elected, the lira should be trading far more freely. CLEMENS GRAFE AND BASAK EDIZGIL, GOLDMAN SACHS, LONDON:"The (rates and CDS) market dynamics post the initial move will be dependent on the FX market.
LONDON, May 15 (Reuters) - Hopes among investors of a surge in Turkish markets evaporated on Monday after long-standing President Tayyip Erdogan took a commanding position in Turkey's elections. "Hope is dead," Abrdn's head of emerging market local currency debt Kieran Curtis said of the prospects for Erdogan's main challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu and meaningful policy change. Monday's initial market reaction had seen the Turkish lira dip to 2-month low alongside more pronounced drops in banking shares and hard currency government bonds. "A continuity of policies would argue for low FX volatility," JPMorgan added, as Erdogan's economic team would look to limit the changes and FX volatility. Reuters GraphicsAdditional reporting by Libby George and Karin Strohecker; Editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
BUENOS AIRES, May 15 (Reuters) - Argentina's government is bolstering its economic defenses as it battles runaway inflation that hit 109% in April, fast draining central bank foreign currency reserves, a weakening peso and simmering market fears of a sharp-shock devaluation. The economy ministry announced a package of measures on Sunday including new interest rate hikes, more central bank intervention in currency markets and fast-tracked deals with creditors after inflation overshot all forecasts last week. Investment bank J.P. Morgan said an "onslaught of inflation" had forced the government to take "emergency measures". That's created a dilemma for the government: how to tame inflation and avoid a crash in the currency, while protecting the scarce foreign currency reserves in the bank. "If the BCRA (central bank) speeds up a devaluation, it will be adding more gasoline to the fire.
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