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☆ 'Pretty confident' the Fed can plateau rates at current level, Goldman strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Pretty confident' the Fed can plateau rates at current level, Goldman strategist saysKamakshya Trivedi, head of global foreign exchange, interest rates and emerging markets strategy research at Goldman Sachs, discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy and interest rates.

Persons: Goldman, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs Locations: U.S

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationBENGALURU, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies over the coming three months as a resilient domestic economy bolsters expectations interest rates will remain higher for longer, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. The dollar is unlikely to give up recent gains in coming months, according to the July 31-Aug. 2 Reuters poll of 70 FX strategists, which showed most major currencies would not reclaim their recent highs for at least six months. In response to an additional question, 27 of 40 FX strategists said net short USD positions would either not change much or decrease over the coming month, suggesting the dollar would be rangebound. Typically, these conditions often coincide with a more negative dollar outlook," said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global FX at Goldman Sachs. At this point in time I wouldn't say so," said ECB President Christine Lagarde last week after delivering a widely anticipated 25 basis points (bps) rate increase.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, Christine Lagarde, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Shrivastava, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, greenback, Federal Reserve, Central Bank, Fed, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of England, bps, Bank of, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bank of Japan

☆ Morgan Stanley: Lower inflation has an unusual downside for companies reporting earnings right now, but these 11 stocks will be able to survive and thrive
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Earnings season will reveal which companies will suffer a top line decline, Morgan Stanley says. At first glance, lower inflation seems like a boon for market watchers worried about a recession. While investors curse higher inflation, companies have come to see it as a blessing. He anticipates that disinflation will dig away at sales this earnings season, and is prepared for disappointment. The results are the 11 stocks below that Wilson believes will have strong FCF yields and healthy operating margins through the earnings season.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, They've, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Wilson isn't Organizations: FX, Federal Reserve

Deutsche Bank's emerging market carry strategy index had its best year on record in the 12 months to May. Reuters GraphicsOVERCROWDING FEARSInvestors, however, are becoming concerned the carry trade might be becoming too popular for its own good. "You have to be worried about some of these more crowded positions," said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets. "I think that is big enough to offset any carry trade income," said Yujiro Goto, head of FX strategy for Japan at Nomura. A hypothetical $50,000 invested in a short Norwegian crown, long dollar carry trade in the first three weeks of July would have lost $3,000, according to Refinitiv.

Persons: Refinitiv, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, Stephen Gallo, Gallo, James Athey, Yujiro Goto, Oliver Brennan, Brennan, Robin Winkler, Goldman's Trivedi, Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon, Harry Robertson, Alun John, Ankur, Rae Wee, Bernadette Baum Organizations: LONDON, Bank of America, FX, Deutsche, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, BMO Capital Markets, Nomura, BNP Paribas, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reuters Graphics, Federal, Deutsche Bank, Swiss, Reuters, Korean, BNY, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Japan, European, U.S, America, Asia, London, Singapore

☆ What is de-dollarization? Here's everything you need to know about rival countries' efforts to dethrone the greenback
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US dollar has dominated global trade and been the leading reserve currency for nearly 80 years. But rival countries – including China and Russia – are trying to change that. But a growing list of countries – including Brazil, China, and Russia – are trying to unseat the greenback. Rival countries China and Russia are spearheading the effort to wean the world off the buck. "There is a lot of inertia in reserve currency status," a team of strategists led by Kamakshya Trivedi said.

☆ Think the dollar is about to peak? Wall Street pros explain how to trade it
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Analysts expect the dollar to decline against 18 out of 38 currencies in the fourth quarter of this year, according to FactSet data. UBS UBS considers selling the dollar against G-10 currencies being a "top investment idea for 2023." According to the investment bank, years of negative interest rates have led to a sizeable un-hedged buildup of dollars worldwide. BCA Research Analysts at BCA Research say from a technical standpoint, the dollar is due for a reversal. Goldman Sachs The Wall Street bank remains bullish on the dollar over the next three months and sees certain G-10 currencies only recovering beyond the six-month horizon.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks would still need to fall more than 50% just to reach valuation norms — and warns of an 'avalanche of earnings disappointments'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman says stocks would have to fall more than 50% further to hit valuation norms. Stocks have staged an impressive rally in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 up 9% since October 12. For Hussman, valuations are still too high, even though the benchmark index has fallen as much as 25% this year. Still, valuations are nowhere near levels that we associate with satisfactory long-term market returns, so I suspect that more shoes will drop." The earnings disappointments Hussman sees will be caused by restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve that weigh on demand.

☆ Don't count on stocks having bottomed out yet – they could fall another 25% if further Fed tightening fuels a severe downturn, Goldman Sachs warns
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks have failed to price in the worst-case economic downturn next year, Goldman Sachs said. Aggressive Federal Reserve tightening in 2023 would make a recession more likely, according to the bank. The S&P 500 could fall another 25% from here, strategists said. "The Fed may need to signal that tightening could extend properly into 2023," Trivedi's team said. That might force the central bank to continue raising rates into next year, which would increase the risk of a recession, Goldman said.

Societe Generale's contrarian strategist Albert Edwards said Britain's reawakening of the fabled 'bond vigilantes' would "reverberate around financial markets for years to come." And many read across to ebbing liquidity in U.S. Treasury markets for a take on Fed parameters this time around too. Bank of America's October survey of global fund managers, released on Tuesday, certainly backs that up. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Registerby Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD. Charts by Bank of America, Vincent Flasseur and Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Could the British pound hit parity with the dollar? Here's what the bulls and bears say
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

First, it fell to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar after the U.K. government announced its "mini-budget." And of course, a strong dollar hasn't helped either . Strategists at Nomura were the most bearish on the pound, expecting it to trade below parity — at $0.98 — by the fourth quarter. ING: £1 = $1-$1.05 Francesco Pesole, an FX strategist at ING, said the pound looked too strong at $1.10. "A policy mix of loose fiscal policy (with little detail on how to close the deficit) and milder monetary tightening gives investors few reasons to hold the pound," they said.

☆ Premarket stocks: Ronald Reagan's tax lesson for Britain
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Citibank analysts called the decision a “huge, unfunded gamble for the UK economy.” Markets dropped precipitously on the news. But much like Truss, Reagan argued that massive tax cuts and deregulation would stimulate productivity and he championed a sweeping tax cut that was passed by Congress that year. According to US Treasury estimates, Reagan’s tax cuts reduced federal revenues by about 9% in the first couple of years. A lesson from history: “When tax cuts are really too big to be sustainable, they’re often followed by tax increases,” wrote David Wessel, director of The Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy. The US dollar appreciated during the Reagan tax cuts because it benefits from global reserve currency status.

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