In the flood of election polls you’ll see over the next few weeks, most polling groups will include responses from “likely voters.” And often from nobody else. In theory, these poll numbers should yield more accurate results, since the people who actually vote are the ones who dictate the outcome on Election Day. After all, how exactly can a pollster know who is “likely” to vote, and who therefore will be the focus of their results? The choices they make are important, because the results of likely-voter polls can differ from those that sample a wider population, such as everyone who is registered to vote. In a close race like this year’s presidential contest, one candidate might lead in a poll among likely voters, while another might lead in the same poll’s tally of registered voters.

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