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☆ Japanese yen carry trade: A very popular trading strategy just blew up in investors’ faces
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

When you hear commentators talking this week about the “yen carry trade” or the “great unwind,” they’re referring to a popular trading strategy that is, suddenly, blowing up in investors’ faces. The carry trade, explainedPut simply: A carry trade is when you borrow money in a place where interest rates are low and use it to invest elsewhere in assets that generate some kind of return. “That is bonkers.”The yen carry trade proved especially popular in the last four years, because Japan was the only major economy in the world offering essentially free money. The carry trade relies on borrowing, which means it’s a leveraged position. “The carry trade unwind… is somewhere between 50%-60% complete.”In other words: Buckle up, and don’t panic.

Persons: CNN Business ’, ”, John Authers, “, it’s, John Sedunov, Kit Juckes, ” Sedunov, Arindam Sandilya, JPMorgan Chase, Buckle Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wall, ” Bloomberg, Treasury, Villanova School of Business, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Japan, Europe

☆ Correction in the dollar-yen was overdue and may be 'healthy' for markets, former ECB chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A carry trade involves an investor borrowing a currency with low interest rates and reinvesting it in higher-yielding assets elsewhere — taking advantage of that differential to make a financial gain. Investors piled into yen carry trades in recent years, attracted by Japan's low volatility and ultra-loose monetary policy. Global stock markets meanwhile plunged as "safe haven" assets such as the Swiss franc and U.S. Treasurys were bolstered. "You can't unwind the biggest carry trade the world has ever seen without breaking a few heads," Kit Juckes, chief foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, said in a Monday note. Trichet told CNBC Tuesday: "The correction can be seen as a healthy correction, in some respects.

Persons: it's, Jean, Claude Trichet, CNBC's, Treasurys, Kit Juckes, Trichet Organizations: European Central Bank, ., Bank of Japan, U.S, Global, Swiss, Societe Generale, CNBC, Federal Locations: France's, U.S, Europe, United States

☆ Investors are unwinding the biggest ‘carry trade’ the world has ever seen, SocGen strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Carry trades refer to operations wherein an investor borrows in a currency with low interest rates, such as the Japanese yen, and reinvests the proceeds in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. "You can't unwind the biggest carry trade the world has ever seen without breaking a few heads. A change in Japanese monetary policy prompted one strategist to warn of the "implosion" of the yen carry trade over a short-term basis. watch nowEd Rogers of Rogers Investment Advisors said the yen carry trade isn't dead yet, despite the deepening stock market sell-off. "Certainly there is going to be some momentary panic, I think, about the yen carry trade.

Persons: Richard A, Brooks, Kit Juckes, Juckes, Russell Napier, Ed Rogers, Rogers, CNBC's Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Afp, Getty, Swiss, Societe Generale, U.S, Bank of Japan, Rogers Investment Advisors Locations: Tokyo, London

☆ The global 'carry trade' is unwinding. Here's why it's a brutal force crushing stocks worldwide.
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The unwind of the global yen "carry trade" is a force battering stocks. AdvertisementStocks plunged on Monday, and market pros say a lot of it has to do with the global unwind of the yen "carry trade." The carry trade refers to investors borrowing money at near-zero interest rates in Japan, and then redeploying that cash into higher-yielding assets around the world, such as stocks and bonds. "The selloff here is to a large extent attributable to the unwind of the so-called carry trade," Ed Yardeni told Yahoo Finance on Monday. AdvertisementThe unwind in the yen carry trade will go down as the biggest ever, according to a Monday note from Societe Generale.

Persons: —, Stocks, Ed Yardeni, that's, Yardeni, That's, Kit Juckes, Warren Buffett's, Juckes, It's Organizations: Service, Yahoo Finance, Bank of Japan, Federal, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan

☆ CNBC Daily Open: S&P retreats, yen surges, Tesla sinks
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The declines follow the lowest consumer price index in over three years. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell, while U.S. oil prices rose on hopes of a rate cut. The Fed is "one step closer to a September rate cut," said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade.

Persons: Jesse Pound, Chris Larkin, Kit Juckes, Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon's Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Nvidia, Meta, Dow Jones, Treasury, U.S, Societe Generale, Delta Air Lines, Paris, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Locations: U.S

☆ Japan's yen surges after U.S. inflation data as traders monitor possible intervention
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Matt Clinch | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

People stand outside a money changer looking at the rates of the Japanese yen against foreign currencies, along a street in central Tokyo on April 29, 2024. The dollar lost around 2% against the Japanese yen on Thursday as the market was suddenly jolted by fresh inflation U.S. data. The dollar rose as the U.S. reacted to its lowest CPI (consumer price index) reading in more than three years. But it comes at a time when traders are on high alert for more yen intervention from Japanese authorities as they try to prop up its ailing currency. Masato Kanda, the vice-minister of finance for international affairs of the Ministry of Finance, told Jiji Press that he was not in a position to comment on any possible intervention.

Persons: Kit Juckes, Marc Ostwald, Masato Kanda, wasn't Organizations: U.S, Reuters, Societe Generale, CNBC, ADM Investor Services, CPI, Ministry of Finance, Jiji Press Locations: Tokyo, London, JPY

☆ Steady dollar sends yen to the brink of 160
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar was firm on Wednesday and trading on the precipice of the 160 yen barrier as investors turned cautious and counted down to the release of U.S. price data at the end of the week. The dollar was firm on Wednesday and trading on the precipice of the 160 yen barrier as investors turned cautious and counted down to the release of U.S. price data at the end of the week. The Australian dollar dipped 0.1% to $0.6640 and the New Zealand dollar similarly slipped to $0.6115, with small moves reflecting thin trade. Sterling was steady at $1.268, while bitcoin has recovered somewhat from a dip below $60,000 this week to trade at $61,668. "The yen moves more, and yuan moves are more controlled, but they seldom move in opposite directions," said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes.

Persons: Pat Bustamante, Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, bitcoin, Kit Juckes Organizations: Canadian, Westpac, Federal, Fed, New Zealand, Citi, Sterling, Generale Locations: Asia, U.S, China

☆ Japanese yen: How the currency’s record slump is squeezing the Japanese
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Juliana Liu | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Higher interest rates in the United States and other countries mean investors can make bigger returns on investments there than they can in Japan. This encourages carry trades, in which investors borrow money in yen to invest it in higher-yielding assets priced in other currencies. That weakens the Japanese currency. A Big Mac costs 50% more in the next cheapest G10 currency, the New Zealand dollar, than it does in yen, he added. … and lots of drawbacksBut the falling yen has caused much pain at home and not just for small businesses like Japan Fraise.

Persons: hasn’t, Hiroko Ishikawa, “ It’s, ” Ishikawa, “, we’re, We’re, Himari Semans, That’s, ” Nigel Green, Kit Juckes, Warren Buffett, ” Sean Callow, ”, Sato Hitomi, Semans, I’ve, —, Laura He, Chris Lau Organizations: Tokyo CNN, US, Reserve, CNN, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, deVere, greenback, Labor, Societe Generale, New Zealand, Japan’s National Tourism Organization, Tokyo’s Locations: Hong Kong, Tokyo, Japan, United States, Sydney, Hawaii

☆ Wall Street takes bets on which major central bank will blink first
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brendan McDermid | Reuterswatch nowSwiss headline inflation fell from 1.7% in December to 1.3% in January, well below consensus forecasts, while core inflation dropped from 1.5% to 1.2%. Analysts at Capital Economics said the steep decline meant inflation "looks sure to undershoot the SNB's Q1 forecast of 1.8%." "However, with the January inflation downside surprise, the SNB forecast looks too high to us, and the probability of a policy rate cut on 21 March has increased. Bank of Japan to end negative rate era While most major central banks are looking at loosening monetary policy after more than two years of aggressive tightening to combat rampant inflation, the question for the Bank of Japan is the opposite. The country's core inflation rate — which excludes food and energy — fell to 2% year-on-year in January, after a third monthly increase, surprising slightly to the upside and suggesting that a sustainable return to ultra-low inflation may not be in the cards.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Société Générale, Kit Juckes Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, Capital Economics, UBS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: New York City, U.S, Bank of Japan, French

☆ Dollar nurses losses as US rates seen peaking
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The index , which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1.9% last week alongside a big rally in U.S. The yuan also hit a three-month high on the dollar on Monday as the central bank guided it higher. "The dollar continues to struggle, with the dollar index breaking below 104 on Friday and (now) below 103.5 ... as markets decide that the Fed is done," analysts at ANZ said in a note. The Australian dollar was marginally firmer at $0.6561, just below Monday's three-month high of $0.6564. The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.6040.

Persons: Pierre Wunsch, Kit Juckes, Christine Lagarde, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: European Central Bank, New Zealand, ANZ, Conference, Federal Reserve, Futures, Generale, U.S, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, Japan, Tokyo

☆ Dollar rallies to fresh one-year high against a beaten-down yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | Thomson Reuters | Senior Correspondent On The London Markets Team Covering European Sovereign Bond Markets | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government would keep monitoring the currency market and respond appropriately. The comments had little immediate impact on the yen, which is down almost 14% against the dollar this year. "Given the move in U.S. Treasuries of course the yen is not rallying yet," he said, referring to U.S. bond yields. The dollar on Monday rose to 151.88 yen , its highest level since October 2022.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Shunichi Suzuki, Sterling, inched, Rishi Sunak, Kit Juckes, Jerome Powell, Geoff Yu, Sunak, David Cameron, Suella Braverman, Dhara Ranasinghe, Brigid Riley, Emelia Sithole, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal, Finance, British, Generale, BNY Mellon, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, Tokyo, TOKYO

☆ Stocks climb in calm before potential US payrolls storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) was flat and currency markets were similarly steady with the dollar just off recent highs as traders looked to the labour data for guidance. Ten-year Treasury yields held at 4.72%. "This may be just a brief pause while we wait for labour market data and next week's U.S. Treasury supply and CPI data," said SocGen strategist Kit Juckes. "If the labour market data are strong, pressure will return sooner than it did last year. I still think the Treasury market will take yields higher until something breaks in the system."

Persons: Jason Wong, Kit Juckes, Tom Westbrook, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Brent, Tokyo's Nikkei, Treasury, Reuters, London, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Wellington, U.S

Treasury yields later receded on a cooler-than-expected U.S. private payrolls report that helped stocks on Wall Street rebound from Tuesday's sharp sell-off. "The market was so over-sold that it was looking for a catalyst to rally on and found it in ADP." The yield on 10-year Treasury notes touched 4.884%, a fresh 16-year high, while 30-year Treasury yields rose above 5% for the first time since August 2007. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAustralian, Canadian and British government bond yields have also surged this week. Gold prices crept lower for the eighth consecutive session as elevated Treasury yields amid expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer weighed on investor sentiment.

Persons: Kim Rupert, Rupert, Rhys Williams, Brendan McDermid, Kit Juckes, Brent, Herbert Lash, Tom Wilson, Tom Westbrook, Simon Cameron, Moore, Will Dunham, Mark Potter Organizations: Treasury, ADP, Management, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights Australian, U.S ., Thomson Locations: San Francisco, Bryn Mawr , Pennsylvania, U.S, New York City, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Tokyo, Russia, London, Sydney

European stocks (.STOXX) tumbled as much as 0.6% before clawing back some ground, with indexes in France (.FCHI) and Germany (.GDAXI) both posting losses. Thirty-year Treasury yields also rose above 5% for the first time since August 2007. Earlier, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) had fallen 1.3%, its second straight daily drop of over 1%. In commodity markets, the stronger dollar has helped put the brakes on oil prices and higher yields have weighed on gold. Reporting by Tom Wilson and Tom Westbrook; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Issei Kato, Sandrine Perret, it's, Mel Siew, Kit Juckes, Tom Wilson, Tom Westbrook, Simon Cameron, Moore, Mark Potter Organizations: U.S ., Nikkei, REUTERS, LONDON, Bank of Japan, Muzinich, Co, THE, Federal, Treasury, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE, France, Germany, Unigestion, Asia, Pacific, Singapore

☆ Asia stocks slump as bond selloff spooks markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The spike in Treasury yields lifted the dollar to new heights with only the yen showing some fight amid speculation the Japanese authorities might be intervening behind the scenes. The yen breached the 150-per-dollar level in the London afternoon on Tuesday before suddenly shooting to 147.3. There was no confirmation from Tokyo, where Japan's finance minister and top currency diplomat have made no direct comment on the move. In commodity markets, the stronger dollar has helped put the brakes on oil prices and higher yields have weighed on gold. Brent crude futures were last steady at $90.87 a barrel, having hit an 11-month high of $97.69 last week.

Persons: Issei Kato, it's, Mel Siew, Ryota Abe, Kit Juckes, Tom Westbrook, Jamie Freed, Kim Coghill Organizations: U.S ., REUTERS, Japan's Nikkei, Muzinich, Co, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, New Zealand, Federal, Treasury, Brent, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, SINGAPORE, London, Pacific, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysian

The European Central Bank last week lifted rates to a record 4% and upgraded its inflation forecast for 2024, but the euro fell and has lost almost 2% against the dollar this month. Overall, Europe's central banks "would like to portray this idea of higher for longer (rates)," said Ed Hutchings, head of rates at Aviva Investors. The currency, which the central bank labeled "unjustifiably weak," barely caught a break and remains near a record low against the euro . He expected one the of big European central banks to be the first to cut rates. European central banks were "in a bind," Fiotakis added, as higher oil prices also threatened to push inflation higher.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Kit Juckes, BoE, SocGen's Juckes, Ed Hutchings, Nathan Thooft, Bjoern, Fiotakis, Orla Garvey, Naomi Rovnick, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, LONDON, Bank of, Swiss, greenback, Societe Generale, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Aviva Investors, Investment Management, Reuters, DWS Group, Nomura, ING, Barclays, Federated, Thomson Locations: Swiss, Bank of England, Switzerland, Sweden, Europe, U.S, Western Europe, United States, Britain, Swedish, Japan, European

☆ US exceptionalism thwarts dollar bears but Fed test looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Signs that the dollar will continue enjoying its yield-advantage over other currencies have undercut support for bearish views on the greenback. That theme will be tested in September, as the market braces for a flood of key U.S. economic data as well as the Fed's monetary policy meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's message at next week's monetary policy meeting could also influence the dollar's trajectory. While Englander is bearish the dollar in the medium term, the currency's "underlying drivers have been going so much in the opposite direction," he said. Other dollar rebounds this year, in March and May, failed at levels not far from where the dollar index trades now.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, It's, Vassili Serebriakov, Jerome Powell's, Steven Englander, Serebriakov, it's, Kit Juckes, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Laura Matthews, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Futures Trading, UBS, Reuters Graphics, Fed, Standard Chartered, Reuters, TD Securities, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States

☆ Higher-for-longer rate bets lift dollar, sap stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Long-term Treasury yields hovered at a two-week high of nearly 4.28% and close to last month's post-financial crisis highs. "It all goes back to the discussion of where that magical neutral rate happens to be," he said. "While the markets are still feeling around for where that rate may be, it's going to weigh on equities and support the U.S. The dollar index - which measures the currency against six developed-market peers, including the yen and euro - ticked up 0.07% to 104.93. Reporting by Marc Jones; Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Robert Alster, Brent, Europe's, hasn't, Kyle Rodda, Kit Juckes, Marc Jones, Kevin Buckland, Susan Fenton Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, for Supply Management, Federal, Asset Management, Japan's Nikkei, Reuters, Traders, Federal Reserve, Capital.com, U.S ., Treasury, Generale, People's Bank of China, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, U.S, New York, Asia, Melbourne, China

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationBENGALURU, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies over the coming three months as a resilient domestic economy bolsters expectations interest rates will remain higher for longer, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. The dollar is unlikely to give up recent gains in coming months, according to the July 31-Aug. 2 Reuters poll of 70 FX strategists, which showed most major currencies would not reclaim their recent highs for at least six months. In response to an additional question, 27 of 40 FX strategists said net short USD positions would either not change much or decrease over the coming month, suggesting the dollar would be rangebound. Typically, these conditions often coincide with a more negative dollar outlook," said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global FX at Goldman Sachs. At this point in time I wouldn't say so," said ECB President Christine Lagarde last week after delivering a widely anticipated 25 basis points (bps) rate increase.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, Christine Lagarde, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Shrivastava, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, greenback, Federal Reserve, Central Bank, Fed, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of England, bps, Bank of, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bank of Japan

While an ISM survey offered a tough assessment of U.S. manufacturing conditions, so-called hard data suggest the sector is shuffling along. Federal Reserve data in June showed factory production rebounded in the second quarter, ending two straight quarterly declines. Meanwhile, U.S. construction spending increased solidly last month and May's data was revised higher, boosted by outlays in both single and multifamily housing projects, the Commerce Department said. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Steven Ricchiuto, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Herbert Lash, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, outlays, Commerce Department, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Mizuho Securities USA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, U.S, Natixis Investment, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore

☆ Aussie set for biggest one-day drop since March, yen at 3-week low
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Aussie fell 1.4% to $0.6626, wiping out the 0.87% gains it clocked in July and set for its sharpest daily drop since March. "I think it was right that the RBA held today, given trimmed mean inflation and unemployment matched the RBA's forecasts. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. The euro eased 0.2% to $1.0975, not too far from an almost three-week low touched on Friday. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Persons: David Gray, Matt Simpson, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan's, City, Federal, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, China, Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore

☆ The dollar's troubles are far from over - expect a slump toward 2020 lows, a Societe Generale analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The US dollar could extend its slide toward lows last tested near the end of 2020, according to a Societe Generale analyst. "I would expect the Dollar Index to closer but not all the way to, the lows at the end of 2020," he said in a note. The currency's troubles may be far from over, according to a Societe Generale analyst. The decline comes as US inflation rapidly cools, fueling bets the Federal Reserve could soon stop raising interest rates, or even start cutting them. The prospect of lower interest rates tend to make a currency less attractive to international investors who seek higher yields.

Persons: Kit Juckes Organizations: Societe Generale, Service, Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

BENGALURU, July 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies for the rest of the year despite expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials as the U.S. economy stays resilient, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. "The tightness of the U.S. labour market may help the economy and the dollar in the very short term," said Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale. "Even if we see (interest) rate convergence, it seems unlikely a new major euro uptrend will start without stronger growth." Indeed, a majority of common contributors showed the dollar view against most major currencies for the coming six months has been either upgraded or kept unchanged from a month ago. "The dollar is getting a tailwind from the Fed ... the current strength is on a repricing of the Fed (rate) higher," said John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kit Juckes, Jonas Goltermann, Sterling, John Hardy, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Srivastava, Sarupya Ganguly, Anitta Sunil, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Societe Generale, Futures Trading Commission, Capital Economics, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Europe, Asia, Britain, Bengaluru

☆ Bank of Canada to raise rates 25 basis points on July 12, possibly the last
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

So the BoC will press ahead and hike the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on July 12, according to 20 of 24 economists in the June 28-July 6 Reuters poll. That would amount to 475 basis points in total since March 2022, taking the overnight rate to a new 22-year high. Inflation is not expected to fall to the central bank's 2% target at least until 2025, according to the poll. The central bank was predicted to keep rates on hold at 5.00% until Q2 2024, said a majority of economists. Rates staying high for longer is expected to boost the Canadian dollar, one of the best performers among G10 currencies this year.

Persons: Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, Claire Fan, Kit Juckes, Milounee Purohit, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Ross Finley, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Bank of Canada, Reuters, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Gross, RBC Economics, Canadian, U.S, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

With economic and monetary policy outlooks varying, currency moves are increasingly out of sync with each other. More pain is also anticipated for the yuan, trading near seven-month lows, as well as smaller Asian currencies. It's continuing to weaken against some European currencies and also Latin American currencies," he said. MULTI-LAYERED CRISISKit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale, said the focus on monetary policy differences was also a result of uncertainties elsewhere. "We've got a one-in-a-100-years pandemic and once-in-75-years war and a-once-in-25-years energy crisis all thrown into the mix together," said SocGen's Juckes.

Persons: Yen, Pound, Jordan Rochester, Nomura, Lee Hardman, Hardman, Juckes, Morgan Stanley reckons, We've, SocGen's, You’ve, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alun John, John Stonestreet Organizations: The Bank of, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Rochester, Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Europe, COVID, Ukraine, The Bank of Japan, United States, Beijing, Scandinavia

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