Nationally, 51% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate if the election for House were being held today and 49% said they would vote for the Republican candidate.
A deeper analysis of state-level results reveal concerns for Democrats in several critical states where the party is trying to gain or hold Senate seats.
For voters who identify as Democrat or Republican, their ballots break down as expected — 97% of Democrats say they’ll vote for the Democratic candidate and 97% of Republicans say they’ll vote for the Republican.
There are differences across party lines, and critically, priorities of independent voters are closer to those of Republicans than Democrats.
Analyses of subgroups of states were weighted according to population targets in those states.