Treasury bond indexes are down as much as 2.5% this year, not a huge move and most of it has come since Federal Reserve policymakers published their upwardly revised median policy projections on Sept. 20.
For an investor with a typical portfolio weighted 60% stocks and 40% bonds, these losses are more than offset by double-digit equity returns.
Their base case is for a 14% return on 10-year Treasuries, rising to 20% in the event of recession.
Even in their upside scenario of a more resilient economy, 10-year Treasuries should return around 10% over the coming year, they estimate.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, meanwhile, showed that asset managers had built up a then record net long position in 10-year Treasuries futures of 1.26 million contracts by mid-January.
Persons:
Kevin Lamarque, ”, Keith Lerner, Jonathan Duensing
Organizations:
Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, U.S, Treasuries, U.S ., Bank of America, Treasury, Bloomberg U.S, ICE, Advisory, Fed, UBS, Bank of, Futures, Amundi, Reuters
Locations:
ORLANDO, Florida, Washington , U.S, U.S . Republic, Treasuries