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"It's not going to be a matter of struggling to get the inflation rate higher. While higher interest rates are good news for savers, businesses and consumers have become used to paying nothing for money over the past 15 years. Reuters GraphicsREADING YIELDSA market-based Fed model that breaks down the 10-year Treasury yield into its components provides further insight into investors' thinking. This rise in term premium, which spent much of the last decade below zero, reflects high levels of uncertainty about economic outlook and monetary policy, investors said. While the market appears to be confident in its belief in the end of the era of zero interest rates, it is far less so about the economy's actual likely path.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Greg Whiteley, It's, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Adrian, Crump, Emanuel Moench, John Velis, Leslie Falconio, BNY's Velis, Velis, Paritosh Bansal, Anna Driver 私 Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, York Fed, Minneapolis, Moench, Frankfurt School of Finance, Management, Americas, BNY Mellon, UBS Global Wealth Management, San, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington ,, U.S, DoubleLine, San Francisco

☆ Dollar clings to gains with central banks in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The euro was down 0.49% at $1.1069 while sterling was last trading at $1.2823, down 0.25% on the day, kicking off a busy week for central bank meetings with investors expecting rate hikes in Europe and the United States. The Fed concludes a meeting on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) a day later and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday, as well as earnings from many heavyweight companies. The BOJ is the most likely of the three central banks to throw up a market-moving surprise, traders say, with a tweak to its yield curve control policy seen as a possibility. "There's a deep sense of unease around what might come next from the Bank of Japan," said ForexLive's Button.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Adam Button, John Velis, ForexLive's Button, bitcoin, Laura Matthews, Alun John, Tom Westbrook, David Holmes, Jacqueline Wong, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, ForexLive, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Investors, ECB, Fed, BNY Mellon, Reuters, Thomson Locations: York, Europe, Toronto, U.S, United States, Americas, New York

Fed officials pointed toward a rate hike "skip" at its June 13-14 meeting, giving time for the central bank to assess the impact of its tightening cycle thus far against still-strong inflation data. U.S. manufacturing contracted for a seventh straight month in May as new orders continued to plummet amid higher interest rates, but factories boosted employment to a nine-month high. "We have made clear that we still have ground to cover to bring interest rates to sufficiently restrictive levels," Lagarde said in a speech. Money markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike when the ECB meets on June 15. "There's a sort of narrowing interest rate differential ... when the ECB is expected to hike one or two more times and the Fed is more questionable about that."

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Edward Moya, Patrick Harker, payrolls, Lagarde, John Velis, Hannah Lang, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Andrew Heavens, Will Dunham, Mark Potter, Leslie Adler Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reserve, European Central Bank, Fed, OANDA, Philadelphia Federal, ADP, Institute for Supply Management, ECB, BNY Mellon, Thomson Locations: OANDA . U.S, Washington, London, Singapore

☆ Dollar edges lower ahead of Fed, BOE
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar edged lower and sterling fell on Tuesday as traders reckoned banking stress would keep the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England from hiking rates much further, or at all, later in the week. But European banks rallied on Tuesday for a second consecutive day eased some of those fears following UBS Group's state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse. The dollar has followed those expectations lower, though general nervousness in financial markets has tempered selling. The greenback ticked about 0.51% higher to $1.0774 per euro , while the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, was 0.15% lower at 103.10. The Norwegian crown rose 0.35% to 10.6120 per dollar, after falling last week to its lowest level since early October.

☆ Analysis: Declining U.S. bank reserves add wrinkle to contentious debt ceiling issue
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Bank deposits, which are part of reserves, also dropped with customers seeking higher-yielding alternatives for their cash. Lower reserves constrain banks' balance sheets, hampering their ability to lend to finance corporate growth and expansions, analysts said. As of March 8, bank reserves during the week averaged $2.999 trillion, Fed data show, falling around $1.3 trillion from a peak of $4.3 trillion in December 2021. Volumes on reverse repos have hit north of $2 trillion since June last year, even as bank reserves have dwindled. And cash assetsDeposit outflows, reverse repos, and bank reserves are all inter-related.

☆ Strategist discusses the Japanese yen outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUnlikely BoJ will do anything 'worth changing market perspectives' this week: StrategistJohn Velis of BNY Mellon Markets says he doesn't think there will be "much difference than a steady, slow decline in the yen without the U.S. particularly interested in supporting intervention."

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