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For over a decade, allies have chronically underspent on defense while the West’s adversaries modernized and bolstered their own military capabilities. Defense spending stayed low across the West not just because of budget pressures, but also because everyone – including the US – was frightened to provoke Russia. However, the nature of NATO allies’ support for Ukraine – much of it direct military support – has exposed the vulnerability that years of underfunding has caused the alliance. Fabian Bimmer/Pool/ReutersThis means that the challenge in front of NATO allies now is not just how can they meet the demand for weapons coming from Ukraine, but how do they reverse years of underfunding their own defenses? Some allies don’t trust that others will be quite so generous with defense spending if the Russia-Ukraine war were to end.
Persons: Vladimir Putin’s, Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky, Murat Kula, , ” John Herbst, Antony Blinken, Ulf Kristersson, Andrew Caballero, Reynolds, underfunding, It’s, Herbst, NATO’s, , Jens Stoltenberg, Olaf Scholz, Fabian Bimmer, Stoltenberg, ” Stoltenberg, Peter Ricketts, Douglas Lute, Organizations: CNN, NATO, Turkish, Anadolu Agency, Pentagon, , Swedish, US State Department, Getty, Ukraine, Rheinmetall, Trump Locations: Soviet, Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Ukraine, United States, British, Vilnius, Russia, Kyiv, Europe, Germany, AFP, North Korea, Iran, Washington, Unterluess, Baltic, Brussels, Finland, Sweden, NATO
They didn't have the defensive positions prepared," RAND defense researcher Bruce W. Bennett told Business Insider. To work with North Korea, Putin has contravened UN Security Council resolutions he himself signed onto. "If Russia failed to achieve success in Ukraine, meaning it got pushed out of Ukraine, is Putin going to survive physically?" Operating like this "really emboldens North Korea, Iran, and any other autocratic state," said Sanner. AdvertisementIn supplying weapons, Kim Jong Un's regime is unlikely to be driven by a dislike of Ukraine, Bennett said.
Persons: , Vladimir Putin, Bruce W, Bennett, Putin, State Anthony Blinken, Mark Milley, Grant Shapps, Beth Sanner, that's, Joseph Byrne, Kim Jong Un, John Herbst, Byrne, ALEXANDER KAZAKOV, Kim, Sergei Lavrov, Kim Jong, would've, Russia's, it's, we're Organizations: Service, RAND, Business, State, Joint Chiefs of Staff, UK Defence, Trump, Biden, Atlantic, Royal United Services Institute, REUTERS, Atlantic Council, Putin, Ukraine —, US, UN, New York Times, North Locations: Ukraine, Iran, North Korea, Pyongyang, Russia, Komsomolsk, Khabarovsk Region, South Korea, Korea, Moscow, KCNA
But House Republicans under Speaker Mike Johnson have no plans to take up the deal, effectively blocking the $60 billion in Ukraine aid it includes. AdvertisementThe war has reached a stalemate even with this support, and a sudden shortage as could come this year drastically weakens Ukraine’s war effort against Russia, analysts told Business Insider. Without US arms support, Ukraine will simply be outgunned and more of its troops will die, experts warn. Other aid will save Ukraine just for monthsA Ukrainian defeat would not be immediate, as Europe could step up its military aid, Herbst said. Losing Ukraine would come at a devastating cost for NATO and the USThese dynamics are perilous for Ukraine and its backers.
Persons: , Mike Johnson, John Herbst, Herbst, Ukraine’s, Gustav Gressel, Stringer Mark Cancian, they'd, Cancian, Vladimir Putin, Johnson, Hakeem Jeffries Organizations: Service, Business, Patriot, Council’s Eurasia Center, Archer Artillery, Roman, Getty, American Enterprise Institute, Martens, European Council, Foreign Relations, REUTERS, US Marine Corps, Center for Strategic, International Studies, NATO, Russia, Democrats, House Republicans Locations: Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, Russia, Ukrainian, Iran, North Korea, Donetsk Oblast, Europe, Zaporizhzhia region, Russian, Soviet Union, Belarus, Africa, Balkans, America
The measure didn't include the $6 billion in military assistance that Ukraine said it urgently needed. They argue that if Russia's invasion is not stopped in Ukraine, other nations — including NATO allies — could be endangered. That faction was pivotal in getting Ukraine funding stripped from the last-minute 45-day funding bill that prevented a shutdown. Likewise, some European allies, including Poland, have begun to pull back on their support for the war, citing the need to prioritize their own defenses. Britain, which is no longer in the EU, has pledged nearly $6.6 billion worth of military support for Ukraine.
Persons: , Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, ” Biden, John Hardie, Mark Cancian, ” Cancian, Hardie, , John Herbst, Herbst, Jamey Keaten Organizations: WASHINGTON, , Pentagon, White, NATO, Patriot, U.S, Republican, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Center for Strategic, International Studies, ., Ukraine “, Atlantic Council, Kiel Institute, EU Locations: — Ukraine, Ukraine, U.S, Brussels, Russia, Poland, United States, Union, Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, France, Britain, Western, Italy, Lithuania, Norway, Geneva
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin speaks in this screengrab from a video released on June 24. The Western stakes in the Ukraine war rose significantly as a result. A mutinous weekend that saw mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin flagrantly mock the Kremlin before aborting his march on Moscow evoked Russia’s blood-soaked history of revolutions and coups. The Kremlin strongman seemed to blink at a military confrontation with Prigozhin’s Wagner Group fighters — in an act that might preserve his grip on power. There’s now no doubt that the war Putin unleashed to wipe Ukraine off the map poses an existential threat to his political survival.
Persons: Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin flagrantly, Prigozhin’s Wagner, , Putin, There’s, Oz, Ukraine John Herbst, CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, “ Putin, Prigozhin’s, Moscow’s, Read Organizations: Concord, Reuters, White, Kremlin, NATO Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Europe, Belarus, Russian
CNN —The world just got a hint of a tantalizing but possibly even more dangerous future without Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Western stakes in the Ukraine war rose significantly as a result. There’s now no doubt that the war Putin unleashed to wipe Ukraine off the map poses an existential threat to his political survival. This would be good news for the West, which has bankrolled and armed the country’s fight for its life. After this weekend, this new reality will require the West to once again examine its balancing act to save Ukraine.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin flagrantly, Prigozhin’s Wagner, , Putin, There’s, Oz, Ukraine John Herbst, CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, “ Putin, Prigozhin’s, Moscow’s, Prigozhin –, Africa –, Prigozhin, he’s, CNN’s Kevin Liptak, Biden, , David Petraeus, Petraeus, , Ramzan Kadyrov, Wagner, Robert English, Alexei Navalny, Alexander Lukashenko, “ It’s, Antony Blinken, placated –, Blinken, Will Hurd, ” Hurd, Hurd –, Donald Trump –, Trump Organizations: CNN, White, Kremlin, NATO, Western, Russian Federation, Union, CIA, Internet Research Agency, School of International Relations, University of Southern, Belarusian, , Republican, GOP, Moscow Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Europe, Belarus, Russian, Russia, Syria, Africa, France, Britain, Germany, Washington, “ State, University of Southern California, NATO, Crimea, Texas
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMoscow has repeatedly failed to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, says former U.S. ambassadorJohn Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, discusses the status of the Russia-Ukraine war and Ukraine's counteroffensive.
Persons: John Herbst Organizations: Council's Eurasia Center Locations: Ukraine, U.S, Russia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUkraine's Zelenskyy will probably bring home a new package of sanctions, says former U.S. ambassadorJohn Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, says Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will probably achieve "not a bad result, but not a great result" from his EU trip.
When Putin invaded Ukraine, he miscalculated the response from Western countries. NATO has been largely united in its response to Russia's war, consistently providing Kyiv with military aid. Russian President Vladimir Putin has effectively succeeded in remaking the Western bloc, Araud said, adding that "the Western alliance is back." After the Soviet Union collapsed, both Finland and Sweden became NATO partner countries but stopped short of pursuing full membership. Even under the intense pressure of war, the alliance is "holding the way that they have in the past," he said.
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