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VIEW Bank of England delivers hefty rate hike
  + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Traders scrambled to price in a peak to UK rates of as much 6% and its implications for the risk of recession, and rate-sensitive stocks like banks and homebuilders slid. MONEY MARKETS: UK 2-year gilts dropped sharply, then rose after the decision but were last unchanged at 5.04%. But even if the bank hasn't offered up any new guidance, the rate decision itself is revealing. The UK has the unenviable title of highest core inflation rate in the G7, and by quite some margin. "Having said that, their policy is now more data dependent, the bank had to deliver a rate increase.
Persons: homebuilders, Sterling, gilts, JAMIE NIVEN, JAMES SMITH, hasn’t, hasn't, BoE, SEEMA SHAH, CHRIS BEAUCHAMP, Bailey, PAUL OBERSCHNEIDER, BOE, ” ROBERT JEFFREE, GARY SMITH, EVELYN, Yoruk Organizations: Bank of England, MPC, Traders, CANDRIAM, ING, LONDON, IG GROUP, Treasury, EMEA, Thomson
LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks like it's being outed as the weakest link. The primary reason was that two of the nine-person MPC voted to end the Bank's rate rise campaign right away as the recession the Bank thinks is already underway will get entrenched next year. But with the median economist forecast for the Bank's terminal rate somewhere around 4.25%, markets still seem aggressively positioned for a hawkish surprise and the pound may be more vulnerable to that revision as the winter progresses. Significantly, the implied Fed terminal rate edged higher to 4.9% after its policy setpiece on Wednesday - even if is still below the 5.1% the Fed indicated. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
The net effect was to catapult next year's implied Fed terminal rate well above 5%. Fed vs BoE Terminal RatesNIESR chart on UK variable mortgagesBANK "IN A HOLE"Although the BoE insisted further hikes from 3% would likely be needed, two of the nine person policymaking council voted for a smaller rate rise this week. State Street's EMEA macro strategist Tim Graf also thinks a terminal rate closer to 4% is now "the more likely end state for policy rates." The BoE needs to be super careful about the pound because another withering lurch will simply aggravate import and energy price inflation. by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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