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Read previewAmerica's wild, multi-year shopping spree has come to an end — and retailers who got used to Americans dropping cash on just about everything are in a tough spot. US retail sales came in stronger than expected in July, with Americans spending more overall compared to the prior month, according to Census data. Around 40% of consumers said they planned to pare back spending on accessories, home decor, jewelry, and furniture, per McKinsey's survey. We're now back in an environment where good retailers, strong brands that offer compelling value … will benefit," Siegel said. In the meantime, that could mean more pain for retailers, Siegel said, speculating that many were caught by surprise by the shift in consumer sentiment.
Persons: , Ted Rossman, Rossman, pare, Simeon Siegel, Siegel, We're, SPDR Organizations: Service, Business, McKinsey & Company, Bankrate, Customers, BMO, Challenger, Walmart, Target, San Francisco Fed, Primerica Locations: FactSet
Read previewAmerican consumers have been frustrated by high prices over past years, but there's some good news: wages have outpaced inflation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since 2020, average hourly wages for most US workers have risen faster than the consumer price index, meaning income has maintained its purchasing power against rising prices. While wage gains have outpaced inflation, it can be difficult for consumers to feel the growth, and plenty of people still miss the "good old days" of lower prices. Since spring 2023, year-over-year wage growth for production and nonsupervisory workers has consistently been above inflation. While US consumers adjust to higher prices, strong wage growth should help ease affordability concerns, Krugman wrote.
Persons: , Sarah Foster, Foster, Paul Krugman, Krugman Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Michigan Ross, Economic Policy Institute, Federal Reserve, New York Times Locations: jtowfighi@businessinsider.com
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Tuesday discussed consumer behavior, saying many are fed up with high prices of certain companies' products and services, such as those in the airline or retail business. They are pushing back on high prices, they are demanding bargains," he said. To Cramer, the travel and leisure bull market might be over, noting that many airlines have recently reported disappointing quarters. Cramer suggested that consumers maybe "aren't flocking to cruises as much as they're fleeing from higher hotel prices." And she's exacting, not revenge travel, but revenge against all who've kept prices high."'
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, inflation's, Cramer, Louis Vuitton Organizations: Fed, Costco, Walmart
Oil prices rise on bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stocks
  + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Oil prices ticked higher on Thursday, buoyed by a bigger-than-expected weekly decline in U.S. crude stocks. Brent futures rose 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $85.21 a barrel by 0023 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 31 cents, or 0.4%, to $83.16. Lower interest rates often spark buying and boost oil demand. The European Central Bank, meanwhile, is all but certain to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, but signaled that its next move is likely to be a cut. A weaker dollar can boost demand for oil by making greenback-denominated commodities like oil cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Persons: Brent Organizations: U.S, West Texas, U.S . Energy, Administration, American Petroleum Institute, Federal, European Central Bank Locations: Brent, United States, Europe, China
"The beginning of bull markets has this really incredible trajectory," Demmert said in a recent interview. AdvertisementA slew of catalysts, including investors' fear of missing out, will drive the S&P 500 to 6,000 by year's end, Demmert predicted. "This whole thing ends, eventually, very ugly, but I think that's years away — not months," Demmert said. So we start a new business cycle; new bull market. AdvertisementEconomic cycles usually go for seven to eight years, Demmert said, and this bull market began two Octobers ago.
Persons: , James Demmert, Demmert, I'm, inflation's, there's, We're, that's, Scott Organizations: Service, Main, Research, Business, Federal Reserve, Bears Locations: Wall, Japan, India, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCompass Diversified CEO on inflation's impact on consumers and economic warning signsElias Sabo, Partner and CEO of Compass Diversified, discusses how inflation and higher rates are impacting consumers and the economy.
Persons: Elias Sabo Organizations: Compass
Stock indexes are hovering near record highs ahead of the testimony of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Meanwhile, the stock market has continued to strike new highs with help from its tech sector, with Nvidia rising 2% on Monday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:AdvertisementHere's what else happened today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Advertisement
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Powell, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Federal, Nvidia Locations: Here's
Sherwood Lumber COO on why lumber is priced at record lows
  + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSherwood Lumber COO on why lumber is priced at record lowsKyle Little, Sherwood Lumber COO, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss lumber demand, inflation's impact on prices, and more.
Persons: Kyle Little Organizations: Sherwood, Sherwood Lumber
And while few shoppers would save their old grocery receipts, using apps like Instacart keep your order history for years. Now, some customers are using those past orders to discover inflation's highly personal impact on them. AdvertisementIn a video on TikTok, White shared his experience using Instacart's "reorder items" function, explaining how a $35 order skyrocketed to more than $62 in the past five years. (Several commenters suggested this was due to the app replacing some out-of-stock items with more expensive offerings from third-party sellers.) White told BI the response to his video, which has nearly a million views, has been very polarized.
Persons: , White, Manhattan —, It's, Andy Kiersz Organizations: Service, Business, Walmart, Pepsi Locations: Virginia, Los Angeles and New York City, Gelson's, LA, Wegman's, Manhattan
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Nvidia sparks rallyThe S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite snapped a three-day slide as Nvidia rebounded from a sell-off. Trump inflation warningSixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a joint letter Tuesday warning of what they see as economic risks if former President Donald Trump were to serve a second term, including 'reignite' inflation. "There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets," they said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Rivian, Donald Trump, Joe, Donald Trump's, Michelle Bowman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Boeing, Home, Treasury, Volkswagen, VW, Ford, Detroit automaker, Trump, Federal, European, Microsoft, Salesforce, Dow Locations: New York City, EU
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumer travel remains strong despite inflation pressure, says Travel + Leisure CEO Mike BrownTravel + Leisure CEO Mike Brown joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss consumer travel trends, inflation's impact on travel, and more.
Persons: Mike Brown Organizations: Consumer
Read previewHey, America, we totally understand if you're not feeling so great about the economy. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. If you're interested in learning more about what's going on with the economy take a look at the charts below. Unemployment rates in the US have been lowThe unemployment rate did climb from 3.8% in March to 3.9% in April, but that's still low. However, just because we aren't in a recession doesn't mean the economy is perfect.
Persons: , We're, Harris, David Kelly, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Gregory Daco, Kelly, Daco, Alemán, Raymond James doesn't Organizations: Service, Guardian, Business, Morgan Asset Management, Real Locations: America
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation's moving away slowly and Fed will cut rates this year, says JPMorgan's Priya MisraPriya Misra, JPMorgan Asset Management fixed income portfolio manager, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss inflation's trajectory, the bifurcation in views on outcomes, and much more.
Persons: JPMorgan's Priya Misra Priya Misra Organizations: JPMorgan, Management
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewMarkets underestimate inflation's likely endurance, as an array of factors keep price upside churning, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told Bloomberg TV. "I think the underlying inflation may not go away the way people expect it to," he told the outlet at the JPMorgan Global Markets Conference. AdvertisementIt's a point Dimon keeps reiterating despite market bullishness, as investors keep trading on the premise that subsiding inflation allows interest rates to eventually ease. In his annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders published last month, he expressed similarly doomy outlooks concerning inflation, interest rates and the economy's trajectory.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, Dimon's, he's, Dimon Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Global Markets, Business, Bank of America's, Global Fund Locations: Bank, China, Beijing, Russia, United States
This year, Social Security beneficiaries saw a 3.2% increase to their benefits. The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment may also be 3.2% in 2025 based on the latest government inflation data, estimates Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. That estimate may change between now and October, when the Social Security Administration announces next year's cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA. The average Social Security COLA has been 2.6% over the past 20 years, according to The Senior Citizens League. Many households tend to cut back on savings and increase withdrawals to try to lift themselves to where they were before inflation picked up.
Persons: Lourdes Balduque, Mary Johnson, Social Security COLA, Laura Quinby, It's, Quinby, Warren Buffett's Organizations: Social, Social Security, Social Security Administration, Senior Citizens League, Center for Retirement Research, Boston College, Center for Retirement, Finance
Inflation canceled that, and now it's almost certain that Wall Street's summer is canceled, too. That means Wall Street's fantasies of decamping to the Hamptons for the summer have shattered. You can see why this tug-of-war will keep Wall Street on its toes and off Georgica Beach. There is a certain set on Wall Street that does not get to "rosé all day" on Hamptons summer water when currencies trade that way. The simplicity that Wall Street hoped for is one of the few options that's no longer on the table.
Persons: , Justin Simon, decamping, Jerome Powell, opportunistically, Jamie Dimon, Torsten Slok, Slok, Powell, we'd, David Lefkowitz, dory, McDonald's, Silas Myers, Wall, Zuck, Simon, they're, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Jasper Capital, Nasdaq, Hamptons, JPMorgan, Fed, Pepsi, Mar Vista Investments, Wall, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, EU Locations: Georgica, Japan
Less than a month ago, analysts were calling for subdued earnings growth of just 3%. Although higher rates can be a headache, Lefkowitz said earnings growth matters most. Instead of obsessing over when interest rates will fall, Lefkowitz said investors should consider the reasoning behind the Fed's decisions. "If rates are rising and that's leading to more confidence in the earnings growth outlook, then that shouldn't be a headwind to markets," Lefkowitz said. Follow this 5-part investing game planHealthy earnings growth and a resilient economy have strategists at UBS GWM bullish about US stocks.
Persons: Jonathan Golub, weren't, that's, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, , shouldn't Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Business, UBS GWM, Bank of America, Federal, Healthcare
Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesFormer President Donald Trump is building a second-term economic agenda that analysts say could reheat the very inflation that he has slammed President Joe Biden for creating. We have a ring around the country," Trump said in a TIME interview released Tuesday, referring to aggressive tariffs he has promised to impose in a second term. Yet economists and Wall Street analysts agree that these plans would likely drive consumer prices higher. "A second Trump term could bring higher tariffs, attempts to weaken the dollar, even higher deficits, deportation of illegal immigrants, and other policies that could put upward pressure on inflation," Piper Sandler analysts wrote last week. Reached for comment, the Trump campaign said, "under President Trump, inflation was non-existent, gasoline was cheap, groceries were affordable, and the American Dream was alive and well."
Persons: Donald Trump, Scott Olson, Joe Biden, Trump, Jay Powell, Piper Sandler, Donald Trump's, Paul Ashworth, Wells Organizations: Clinton Middle School, Getty, Wall Street, Trump, Federal, Wall, Capital Economics, North, U.S ., Wells Locations: Clinton , Iowa, China, Mexico, South Carolina, North America
After I sold my home and started renting, I learned that renting was not a waste of money. My advice: Don't rush into homeownership thinking it's the only way to build wealth. Building wealth does not have to include owning a home, and owning a home is not the only way to build wealth. Don't rush into homeownership thinking that it is the fastest way or the only way to build wealth. Here are a few things I learned after going from owning a home to renting.
Persons: , It's, it's Organizations: Service, Census Bureau Locations: American
Nvidia is in a bubble, stocks will falter, and a recession will hit this year, Jesse Felder said. The markets guru said the microchip frenzy would fade, and stock-market returns would drop off. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementNvidia hype is a bubble that will burst, stocks will disappoint for the next decade or longer, and a recession will strike this year, Jesse Felder said.
Persons: Jesse Felder, , outsize, Felder, Jeff Bezos, Meta's Mark Zuckerberg, Jamie Dimon Organizations: Nvidia, Service, Micron
CNBC's Jim Cramer questioned whether the hotter-than-expected consumer price index data accurately represents the state of inflation, saying Wall Street's wave of Wednesday selling could have been a mistake. "These headline CPI numbers do not reflect reality as I see it." The Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI is a key inflation metric — a broad measure of the cost of goods and services across the economy. Cramer first pointed to the 0.9% month-over-month increase in the price of meat, poultry, fish and eggs, with the latter alone climbing 4.6%. "I'm not talking about the absolute numbers, I'm talking about the trendlines, because the trendlines suggest that selling in response to this report may have been and could be a mistake."
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Dow Jones, Cramer Organizations: Labor Statistics CPI, Cal, Maine Foods, U.S Locations: Texas
Stock futures dipped as Wall Street looked ahead to a second key inflation report. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 60 points, or about 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures also lost 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led Wednesday's losses, tumbling 1.09%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.95%. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the session in negative territory, with real estate bearing the brunt of the selling pressure and posting decline of more than 4%. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect wholesale prices to have grown by 0.3% in March, and 0.2% when excluding food and energy.
Persons: Stocks, , Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, CNBC's, Dow Jones, Wells Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Constellation Brands, JPMorgan, Citigroup Locations: Wells Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is hurting supply and contributing to fiscal excess with high rates, says Judy SheltonJudy Shelton, Independent Institute senior fellow, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's policy meeting this week, why she doesn't believe the Fed should get credit for inflation's decline, former Pres. Trump's list of potential Fed Chair nominees, and more.
Persons: Judy Shelton Judy Shelton Organizations: Independent Institute Locations: Pres
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation's going to perform much better than most people & the Fed think this year: Ian ShepherdsonIan Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's interest rate outlook, why he believes the the Fed should cut rates next week, and more.
Persons: Ian Shepherdson Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Macroeconomics
Excluding food and energy, the increase for core inflation, is forecast at a 0.3% gain, also one-tenth of a percentage point above the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is expected to show a 3.1% gain and core inflation a 3.7% increase when the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its latest reading on the consumer price index Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. On the brighter side, House said lower prices on travel, medical care and other services helped keep inflation in check. Still, Wells Fargo has raised its full-year inflation forecast. Focusing on the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred Fed gauge, Wells Fargo sees inflation at 2.5% for the year, versus a prior estimate for 2.2%.
Persons: Elijah Nouvelage, Dow Jones, Sarah House, Wells, Wells Fargo Organizations: Kroger, AFP, Getty, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, AAA, CPI, Wells, New York Fed Locations: Atlanta , Georgia, Wells Fargo, isn't
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