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☆ America’s debt problem could spell higher interest rates in the rest of the world
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The IMF said Wednesday that increased government spending, growing public debt and elevated interest rates in the United States had contributed to high and volatile yields — or interest rates — on Treasuries, raising the risk of higher rates elsewhere. “Loose fiscal policy in the United States exerts upward pressure on global interest rates and the dollar,” Vitor Gaspar, director of the IMF’s fiscal affairs department, told reporters. Higher interest rates make it more costly for households and businesses to service their loans, which can lead to defaults that cause losses at banks and other lenders, increasing financial instability. That means that even if the Fed cuts interest rates later this year — the IMF’s central scenario — US government funding costs may not fall by the same margin, he added. The IMF expects US public debt to continue rising, helping drive government debt worldwide to close to 100% of global gross domestic product by 2029, from 93% last year.

Persons: ” Vitor Gaspar, ”, Jerome Powell, ” Tobias Adrian, Gaspar, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, That’s Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Treasury, US, Federal Locations: United States, Washington

☆ The global economy is expanding, but the Red Sea crisis could spell trouble, says IMF
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

London CNN —The outlook for the global economy is brightening, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday as it upgraded its growth forecast for 2024. It expects global growth in gross domestic product — a key measure of economic activity — to pick up slightly to 3.2% next year. Despite the IMF’s upgrades, its projections for global growth for 2024 and 2025 are below the annual average of 3.8% clocked up over the first two decades of this century. The longer and costlier journeys have raised fears of a renewed rise in global inflation. An escalation in the Israel-Hamas war into a wider conflict in the Middle East would threaten global growth, the fund added.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Valerie Plesch Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty Images, Hamas Locations: Ukraine, Red, United States, India, Washington , DC, Getty Images Iran, Israel

Worldwide, the IMF thinks inflation will ease from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025. The IMF expects the 20 countries that share the euro currency to collectively grow a meager 0.9% this year. The IMF also modestly downgraded the outlook for the Japanese economy, to 0.9%, a drop from 1.9% growth in 2023. The IMF expects oil prices, which plunged 16% in 2023, to fall a further 2.3% this year and 4.8% in 2025. The IMF expects world trade to grow just 3.3% this year and 3.6% in 2025, below the historical average of 4.9%.

Persons: ’ Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, ’ Gourinchas, Joe Biden’s Organizations: WASHINGTON, Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve, IMF, Trade Organization Locations: United States, Yemen, Red, Asia, Europe, Suez, Africa, U.S, Brazil, India, Southeast Asia, Russia, Ukraine, Russian, China

☆ IMF chief says AI could disrupt nearly 40% of global employment ahead of Davos
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Michelle Toh | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

In a Sunday blog post, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva called for governments to establish social safety nets and offer retraining programs to counter the impact of AI. As AI continues to be adapted by more workers and businesses, it’s expected to both help and hurt the human workforce, Georgieva noted. In more developed economies, for example, as much as 60% of jobs could be impacted by AI. AI became a hot topic at the WEF in Davos last year as ChatGPT took the world by storm. Georgieva, in her blog post, also cited opportunities to boost output and incomes around the world with the use of AI.

Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, ”, Georgieva, ChatGPT, Goldman Sachs, “ Let’s Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Economic, “ Locations: Hong Kong, Davos, Switzerland, India, Brazil, Burundi, Sierra Leone

There is a new poster child of China’s protracted real estate crisis — Country Garden. Country Garden has not responded to requests for comment by phone or email. Here’s what to know about the rise and fall of Country Garden, and the future of China’s once red-hot property sector. Until last year, Country Garden was China’s biggest real estate developer, specializing in residential property. While confidence in China’s real estate sector has been shaky since the collapse of Evergrande, Country Garden reignited fears in August when its liquidity crisis burst into public view.

Persons: Evergrande, Yang Huiyan, Krishna Srinivasan, ” Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Bloomberg News, Financial Times, Citigroup, Hong Kong, Country Garden, Seng, International Monetary Fund, National Bureau of Statistics, Pacific Department Locations: Hong Kong, Foshan, Guangdong province, China, United States, Evergrande, Beijing, Asia

☆ Russian war economy is overheating on a powder keg
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - His war on Ukraine may not be unfolding according to plan, but President Vladimir Putin can still claim that the Russian economy is performing, as he says, “better than previously expected”. This kind of understatement is unusual for the Kremlin leader: with a tight labour market and inflation showing no signs of abating, the Russian economy is in fact overheating. And these are conservative numbers, because other types of war spending – such as new construction in the occupied territories – are hidden in other sections of the budget. The Russian currency is down 30% since its January high. Follow @pierrebri on XCONTEXT NEWSThe Russian economy will grow by 2.2% in 2023, the International Monetary Fund said in its October World Economic Outlook.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, “, Putin, Alexandra Prokopenko, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner, Francesco Guerrera, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Kremlin, International Monetary, Bank of Russia, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank of, Danone, Carlsberg, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Russia, –, Moscow, Europe, Lithuania, microchips, Kazakhstan, Bank of Russia, United States, China, U.S, Beijing

☆ From Russia to the Middle East: Why China can’t afford another big conflict
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Now, as Israel’s war against Palestinian militant group Hamas threatens to spiral into a broader conflict that could shatter stability in the Middle East, China has called for a ceasefire while criticizing Israel’s actions. It also highlights China’s deep economic interests in both Russia and the Middle East, which it wants to safeguard at all cost. The world’s second largest economy depends on Russia and the Middle East for much of its energy needs. The Middle East is also a cornerstone in the Belt and Road Initiative. “Regional conflagration means long instability and long instability means no business for China in the Middle East,” he added.

Persons: ”, Eswar Prasad, refiners, Vladimir Putin, Xi, Sergei Guneyev, Russia’s, Putin, Russia —, Wang Yi, Jean, Loup Samaan, Joe Biden, QatarEnergy, Ahmed Aboudouh, Antony Blinken, Blinken, “ Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Moscow, Palestinian, Cornell University, Getty, Initiative, Shanghai’s Fudan University, United, China’s, Middle East Institute of, National University of Singapore, Wednesday, Jihad, Energy, China Petroleum & Chemical Co, Sinopec, Fudan University, Chatham House, US Department of State Locations: China, Hong Kong, Hong Kong CNN — Beijing, Ukraine, East, Palestine, Israel, United States, Russia, Beijing, Moscow, Saudi Arabia, Russian, AFP, Pakistan, Iran, Hamas, Tehran, Gaza, Qatar, China’s, Qatari, London, “, Persian, ”

☆ Country Garden and China's housing market struggle will weigh on global growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s real estate market remains a drag and will put pressure on global growth. The data comes at a time when Country Garden, once the country’s biggest homebuilder, is fighting for its life. The property slowdown will impact not just China, but also global growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday. Global impactThe IMF said China’s property downturn will weigh on global growth prospects. Country Garden issued a statement on Thursday, threatening to pursue legal action against anyone spreading “malicious rumors” about its founder fleeing the country.

Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, ”, Krishna Srinivasan, Srinivasan, Yang Huiyan, Yang Guoqiang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, International Monetary Fund, NBS, IMF, Pacific Department Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Ukraine, Asia

☆ The IMF sees greater chance of a ‘soft landing’ for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The IMF’s projections for growth and inflation are “increasingly consistent with a ‘soft landing’ scenario… especially in the United States,” Gourinchas continued. The 20 countries using the euro are expected to grow collectively by 0.7% this year and 1.2% next year, a downgrade of 0.2 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points respectively from July. The IMF upgraded its growth forecasts for the US economy to 2.1% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024 — an improvement of 0.3 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively. “The strongest recovery among major economies has been in the United States,” the IMF said. The IMF revised its forecasts for global inflation to 6.9% this year and 5.8% next year — an increase of 0.1 percentage point and 0.6 percentage points respectively.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, ” Gourinchas, Qilai Shen, Gourinchas Organizations: London CNN —, Monetary Fund, IMF, Bloomberg, Getty, Brent Locations: United States, China, Europe, Ukraine, Guangzhou, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia

The IMF said it expects global economic growth to slow to 2.9% in 2024 from an expected 3% this year. “The global economy is limping along, not sprinting," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at a news conference during the organization's annual meeting in Marrakech, Morocco. If sustained, a 10% increase in oil prices would reduce global economic growth by 0.15% and increase global inflation by 0.4%, Gourinchas said. So far, the increase in oil prices has been “fairly muted,” said Commerzbank commodities analyst Carsten Fritsch. The United States is a standout in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, which was completed before the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, “, Gourinchas, “ We’ve, ”, Carsten Fritsch Organizations: Hamas, International Monetary Fund, IMF, United Arab, U.S . Federal Reserve, Saudi Locations: Ukraine, Israel, Marrakech, Morocco, Palestinian, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, United States, U.S, Europe, Russia, Beijing

The International Monetary Fund and World Bank decided in 2018 to host their annual meeting in Marrakech, Morocco, bringing the affair to the African continent for the first time in 50 years. Their original timeline was delayed by the pandemic, but the meeting beginning Monday arrives at an apropos time. Those challenges are particularly pronounced in Africa, where many countries spend more on debt than health care and education combined. The earthquake, residents say, exacerbated disparities plaguing rural areas and compounded struggles facing already-impoverished communities. “Here’s it’s hidden behind.”___AP reporters Paul Wiseman in Washington and Yassine Oulhiq in Anerni, Morocco, contributed to this report.

Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, they've, ”, Iskander Erzini Vernoit, Morocco —, Brahim Ait Brahim —, he's, Ait Brahim, “, Paul Wiseman, Yassine Organizations: Monetary Fund, World Bank, IMF, Bank, Climate & Development, That’s Locations: MARRAKECH, Morocco, Marrakech, Ukraine, Africa, Egypt, Zambia, Anerni, That’s Marrakech, It’s, Washington

☆ The world has changed and institutions need to work together, says IMF chief
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe world has changed and institutions need to work together, says IMF chiefThe IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva tells CNBC’s Martin Soong that the World Bank and IMF are complementary but yet have differing expertise. "The world needs institutions to work together," she said in an exclusive CNBC interview on the sidelines of the G20 leaders' summit.

Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, CNBC’s Martin Soong Organizations: World Bank, IMF, CNBC

☆ BRICS expansion is a big win for China. But can it really work as a counterweight to the West?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Nectar Gan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The summit was the largest the BRICS have ever held, with more than 60 countries attending alongside member nations Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. “This makes China the clear winner,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London. Helena Legarda, lead analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a think tank in Berlin, said it is unclear to what extent the BRICS expansion will increase the value and influence of the group. The BRICS expansion is also likely to fuel competition – and potential friction – between China and India, whose ties have already been strained by a simmering border conflict. “Sino-Indian competition for the leadership of the Global South is now bound to sharpen with China having a clear advantage,” said Jacob in New Delhi.

Persons: Xi Jinping, United Arab Emirates –, Xi, ”, Steve Tsang, “, ” Happymon Jacob, Yun Sun, Helena Legarda, Cyril Ramaphosa, Narendra Modi, Jacob Organizations: CNN, United, United Arab Emirates, SOAS China Institute, University of London, Moscow, US, United Nations, Security Council, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Xi, New, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Stimson, Mercator Institute for China Studies, Indian, Anadolu Agency, Getty Locations: Johannesburg, Beijing, Africa, Asia, Latin America, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Argentina, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab, Moscow, United States, Ukraine, Washington, Tigray, UAE, America, Berlin, New Delhi, “

☆ IMF chief says Africa must do these three things to increase trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Nell Lewis | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The timing is ripe as African countries grapple with sluggish growth, food insecurity and debt distress. CNN: According to IMF reports, the levels of inflation and public debt we’re seeing in Africa have not been seen in many decades. Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, speaks in Washington, DC, in April at a meeting of the World Bank and IMF. Georgieva: I expect to see a very strong focus on the African continent. We did a paper on how the continental free trade agreement can benefit Africa if these trade and non-trade barriers are eliminated and the results are phenomenal: trade within Africa can increase by 53%, trade between Africa and the rest of the world by 15%, and real income per capita could grow by 10%.

Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva, CNN’s Eleni Giokos, Kevin Dietsch, we’re, they’re Organizations: CNN, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Bank, IMF Locations: Africa, Marrakech, Morocco, Washington , DC

☆ Argentina reach staff deal on loan reviews to unlock $7.5 billion
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The International Monetary Fund said on Friday that it has reached a staff-level agreement with Argentina to unlock about $7.5 billion and complete the fifth and sixth reviews of the struggling country’s $44 billion loan program. Reuters first reported that the agreement would combine the fifth and sixth reviews of Argentina’s IMF program — a move that provides additional loan funds sooner. The IMF said its board would meet to consider the agreement in the second half of August. The agreement calls for Argentina to tamp down import demand with new foreign exchange taxes for imported goods and to strengthen expenditure controls. Argentina is set to have another three reviews on its 2022 IMF program by September 2024, though the IMF statement didn’t specify what would happen with those.

Persons: Sergio Massa Organizations: Monetary Fund, Reuters, IMF, Argentine Locations: Argentina, Buenos Aires, Beijing

☆ IMF urges BOJ to move away from yield control, prepare for future tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Leika Kihara | Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan should start preparing for future monetary tightening by moving away from its yield control policy, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said on Tuesday. FILE PHOTO: A Japanese flag flutters on the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, March 15, 2016. They have also said the BOJ was mindful of the cost of YCC such as market distortions caused by its heavy bond buying. Widening the allowance band around its 10-year yield target, a step it took last December, could be among options to mitigate the side-effects of YCC, analysts say. Growth in the world’s third-largest economy is expected to slow to 1.0% in 2024 as the effect of past stimulus measures dissipate, the IMF said.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Toru Hanai, ” Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan, Monetary Fund’s, REUTERS, Reuters Locations: TOKYO, WASHINGTON, Tokyo, Japan

☆ IMF: Global economy is improving but inflation is still enemy No. 1
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —The global economy is showing more resilience than economists previously thought — but, although some risks have abated, choppy waters could still be ahead, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. In its latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the agency said it expects global growth of 3% in both 2023 and 2024. “Global economic activity has proven resilient in the first quarter of this year, leading to a modest upward revision for global growth in 2023,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, said in a statement. From 2000 to 2019, annual global economic growth averaged 3.8%, according to the IMF. When looking across the global economy, there are concerns that China’s recovery could slow further, as its debt-laden real estate sector weighs on growth, according to the report.

Persons: ” Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Chris Ratcliffe, ” Gourinchas, Gourinchas, “, ” Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, International Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF, Bloomberg, Getty, Publishing, Federal Reserve Locations: Minneapolis, Oxford, United Kingdom, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, Yantai, Shandong province, China

Islamabad was racing against time to unlock $1.1 billion under the IMF's ninth review of a $6.5-billion Extended Fund Facility agreed upon in 2019. The Pakistan government was expecting around $2.5 billion from the IMF, Reuters has reported. PROCESSESPakistan earlier cleared eight of the 11 listed programme reviews, with the ninth review pending since November last year. HOLE IN FINANCESThe government has earmarked $2.5 billion in external receipts from the IMF in its federal budget for FY24. Pakistan needs upwards of $22 billion to service external debt, make interest payments, and finance its current account for FY24.

Persons: Shehbaz Sharif, Ariba Shahid, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, IMF’s, Reuters, Pakistan, CCC, United, Thomson Locations: KARACHI, Pakistan, Islamabad, PAKISTAN, Caa3, Fitch, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, China, Karachi

☆ IMF reaches $3 billion staff-level agreement with Pakistan
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Rhea Mogul | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: 1 min

CNN —Pakistan has reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a crucial bailout that could help stabilize its flailing economy and lift the South Asian nation out of a crisis that has pushed millions to the brink. “I am pleased to announce that the IMF team has reached a staff-level agreement with the Pakistani authorities on a nine-month Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) in the amount of SDR2,250 million (about $3 billion),” Nathan Porter, who led the IMF staff team, said in a statement Thursday. The deal is subject to approval by the IMF’s executive board, which is expected by mid-July, the statement added. This is a breaking news story. More to come…

Persons: ” Nathan Porter Organizations: CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: Pakistan

☆ Pakistan’s political crisis will deepen its economic misery
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —The political unrest that’s engulfed Pakistan since former Prime Minister Imran Khan was arrested earlier this week will complicate efforts to secure a financial lifeline from the International Monetary Fund and exacerbate the country’s economic crisis. Pakistan’s economic meltdownThe political tumult in Pakistan comes as the country grapples with a dire economic outlook. The government has been working with the International Monetary Fund to resume a financing program that’s been stalled since November and expires in June. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a televised address Friday that the country’s economic problems stem from his predecessor. In February, the ratings agency said about 50% of government revenue will need to go to debt interest payments “for the next few years,” compounding economic woes and fanning political discontent.

☆ Investors can discount IMF’s emerging-market gloom
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Historically, monetary tightening in the United States has been kryptonite for emerging-market investors. Most important of all, many emerging-market central banks learned the lesson of previous cycles and raised rates early. By the end of 2021, two-thirds of the major emerging-market central banks were tightening monetary policy. Perhaps the 2020s will bring a Highly Indebted Rich Countries initiative in which emerging-market countries return the favour. But when it comes to considering the investment case for the majority of emerging-market sovereigns, investors should not be swayed.

☆ How US and allies can find common ground on China
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

That said, the U.S. and its allies have many common values and interests with regards to China. Reuters GraphicsJapan, Australia and other Asian countries also need American support to counter the challenge from a more assertive China. The G7 finance ministers last week took a step to address this concern. But it is unclear how much headway the G7 will make as China has already invested heavily in many poorer countries. It is not just the group’s finance ministers who are seeking to coordinate their approach.

WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund's steering committee on Friday said it would accelerate its discussions on quota reforms at the global lender with an eye to making "considerable progress" by its next meeting in October. "In this context, we support at least maintaining" the IMF’s current lending resources, Calvino said in a summary of the committee's work. "With regard to IMF resources, I continue to believe that overall resources remain adequate," Yellen said. "At the same time, the IMF needs to follow through on its commitment to a new quota formula that is both fair and simple and primarily reflects the economic size of its member countries." He called for a "pragmatic approach" to complete the review by December to increase IMF resources and to "strengthen the voice and representation of dynamic emerging market and developing economies."

☆ IMF says has not received request from Tunisia to re-examine reforms
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"The Fund did not impose any diktats," Azour said, according to the TAP state news agency. The IMF postponed in December its board meeting on a loan program for Tunisia that was scheduled to give the authorities more time to finalize it. "This program has been designed, proudly by the Tunisian authorities," Azour said during the briefing. Without a loan, Tunisia faces a full-blown balance of payments crisis. Most debt is internal but there are foreign loan repayments due later this year, and credit ratings agencies have said Tunisia may default.

☆ Analysis: No China, no deal: Bid to break sovereign debt logjams gets weary thumbs up
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Libgeorge Marc Jones | Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) - The latest bid by the world's leading institutions and creditors to speed up debt restructurings and get bankrupt countries back on their feet has been greeted by a mix of cautious optimism and weary scepticism by veteran crisis watchers. The somewhat loose framework around sovereign restructurings has seen Beijing seek to influence the traditional rules of engagement in these processes. The Common Framework platform introduced by leading G20 nations in 2020 aimed to bring all creditors, including China, together and streamline negotiations. Anna Ashton, director of China research at Eurasia Group, said this week’s developments underscored the benefits for China to give some ground on some of its concerns. "China is a difficult partner to talk to but we need China at the table for the solution of debt problems, because otherwise we won't see any progress," Lindner said.

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