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☆ How major markets typically perform in the 100 days before a presidential election
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Even with election uncertainty, the market typically moves higher in the 100 days leading up to a presidential vote — but it may be a volatile ride to get there. The so-called fear gauge usually declines in the first 20 trading days of the 100-day runup to the election, but typically works higher in the 45-, 60-, 65- and 70 days before election day. The VIX has been higher 6 of the last 8 election years during the closely-watched, 100-day period. Oil prices usually see upward pressure through October, before feeling some weakness in the final weeks before voters cast ballots. In the run up to October, oil prices typically see more of a boost when a Democrat is the sitting president.

Persons: Paul Ciana Organizations: Bank of America, ICE, Democrat, Overseas Locations: U.S

☆ Saudi Arabia is struggling to boost oil prices, raising possibility of supply war with U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

OPEC is facing growing challenges in its efforts to boost oil prices amid record output outside the alliance, particularly in the U.S., raising questions about how long the alliance can maintain its deep production cuts. The outcome is a "bittersweet victory" for OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia, wrote Jorge Leon, senior vice president of Rystad Energy, in a note Thursday. With oil prices down more than 14% since September highs, traders were hoping that OPEC could provide a boost. In the end, Saudi Arabia may have only one option — launch a supply war by flooding the market with oil. The 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts from the coalition of the willing is somewhat deceiving.

Persons: Jorge Leon, bode, Leon, Brent, Natasha Kaneva, Paul Sankey, John Kilduff, Kilduff, it's, Sankey, Kaneva, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Daan Struyven, Struyven Organizations: Rystad Energy, Traders, Sankey Research, U.S . Oil, U.S, OPEC, United Arab, Goldman Locations: U.S, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, Saudi, China, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman

☆ Nashville added nearly 100 new residents per day in 2022. Here's why people are moving to Music City
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Over the past 30 years, Nashville, Tennessee — a city known for country music — has seen a flood of transplants moving from higher-cost cities. For new residents, "everybody has a different story," said Jeff Hite, chief economic development officer of the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce. In 2022, the Nashville metropolitan area grew by about 35,624 people, or roughly 98 new residents per day, according to Census data compiled by the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce's Research Center. Since 1990, the population has grown 81%, with more than two— million residents in the Nashville metropolitan area in 2022. Attracted to a "central location," some 43% of downtown residents moved from out of state, survey data from the Nashville Downtown Partnership shows.

Persons: John Greim, —, Jeff Hite, Hite, Nina Dietzel, Tom Turner, Turner, we've, we're Organizations: LightRocket, Nashville Area, of Commerce, Commerce's Research, Nashville, Images Downtown, Nashville Downtown Partnership, Partnership, Vanderbilt University Locations: Nashville, Nashville , Tennessee, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, San Diego and New York, Images Downtown Nashville

☆ Israel war tests US appeal to global swing states
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

FOURNI, Greece, Oct 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Joe Biden has sought to portray the United States as a superpower that cares about the rule of law. What’s more, swing states – which back neither the United States nor China – have more power than they did during the old Cold War between the West and the Soviet Union. Such pressure may convince some countries that the United States is pursuing a principles-based foreign policy in the Gaza conflict. The Israeli war may last a long time and its aftermath may be tortuous. But it could also have an important impact on the United States’ influence with swing states and its struggle with China.

Persons: Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin’s, Xi Jinping’s, Barack Obama, Republic –, Biden, Queen Rania, Jordan, Israel, Jake Sullivan, Israel –, Tayyip Erdogan, Benjamin Netanyahu, Mustafa Kamal Kazi, Netanyahu, What’s, Jonathan Cohen, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Russian, U.S, Israel, United Nations General, Washington, UN Security Council, Security Council, Soviet Union, Members, United, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S . National Security, U.S ., West Bank, Thomson Locations: FOURNI, Greece, United States, Russia, China, Ukraine, Taiwan, Gaza, Israel, Republic, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, U.S, Moscow, Soviet, India, Brazil, wean, Turkey, NATO, South Africa, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistani, Egypt, Israeli

☆ Bill Ackman lays out a series of reasons why he's betting rates keep rising — How you can play along
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The 30-year Treasury yield was trading at 4.575% on Friday morning after hitting its highest level since 2011 on Thursday. US30Y YTD mountain The 30-year Treasury yield hit a new high for the year on Thursday. Ackman said he thinks 5.5% could be more the rational yield for the 30-year Treasury. The largest inverse bond ETF is the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) , according to VettaFi. ProShares also has the Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBF) , which is a one-times inverse fund.

Persons: Bill Ackman, Ackman, Ackman's, ProShares Organizations: Treasury, Reserve, Workers, ICE U.S, Pershing, Capital Management, CNBC, Alpha Locations: China

Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 19 million barrels in the NYMEX and ICE U.S. crude (WTI) futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on August 29. Bearish short positions in the premier NYMEX WTI contract had been reduced to just 49 million barrels, down from 136 million. Total commercial crude inventories had fallen into line with the prior ten-year average on August 25 while stocks at Cushing had depleted to almost 30% below the average. Hedge fund managers have been trying to get bullish towards U.S. gas prices, and the inventory surplus inherited from 2022 has been shrinking. Related columns:- Depleting U.S. crude inventories lift oil prices (August 31, 2023)- Prospect of strong El Niño weighs on U.S. gas prices (August 30, 2023)- Crude oil prices stalled as hedge funds sold (August 29, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Richard Carson, John Kemp, Mike Harrison Organizations: Department of Energy, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, REUTERS, ICE, Cushing, U.S . diesel, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Freeport , Texas, U.S, Cushing, Oklahoma, Brent, Washington, Illinois, Maine

☆ The American rebuild begins after dismal World Cup campaign
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Amy Tennery | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Americans, who own a record four World Cup titles and had never before finished worse than third place, left town long before the party was over after a shock defeat to Sweden in the last 16. "Our commitment to excellence remains unshakeable, and we believe this strategic plan will set the foundation for our women's national team to achieve greater heights in the years to come." The U.S. federation must also replace women's national team General Manager Kate Margkraf, whose departure was announced on Friday. But the Macedonian-American never shied from bringing the next generation into the fold, as he fielded the least experienced U.S. team in memory with 14 World Cup newcomers, compared to only eight in 2015. But fans looking for a glimmer of hope from the Americans' dismal campaign can look to the younger players.

Persons: Megan Rapinoe, Alyssa Naeher, Vlatko Andonovski, Matt Crocker, Crocker, Kate Margkraf, There’s, Andonovski, Sam Mewis, Catarina Macario, Mallory Swanson, Forward Sophia Smith, Naomi Girma, Alyssa Thompson, Julie Ertz, Fox, Amy Tennery, Pritha Sarkar Organizations: Soccer Football, FIFA, United, Spain, England, Sunday's, team, Soccer Sporting, Premier League, Southampton, women's, U.S . Soccer, National Women's Soccer League, U.S ., Vietnam, U.S, Soccer, Thomson Locations: New Zealand, Sweden, United States, Melbourne, Australia, U.S, Sydney, Qatar, Paris, Tokyo, New York

LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - A reappraisal of the dollar could be the next big "pain trade". Dollar jumps as US 2-year yield premium builds vs G7Net short dollar contracts from CFTCBofA chart on fund managers dollar viewSMILEFor the dollar at least, it starts to look less of a one-way rate bet. For those who favour intra-G7 interest rate differentials for guidance, the picture is not much better for dollar bears. But if "soft landings", disinflation and buoyant markets continue to rule the roost, it may be hard work for the outsize "anti-dollar" bet. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: There's, BoE, What's, it's, Mike Dolan, Alison Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Bank of England, gilts, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan

☆ The dollar’s decline is yet another positive for the broad market — including AI stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A weaker dollar will continue to support a broad stock market rally that has already seen an extraordinary run-up this year. Since topping out in late last September, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index has fallen about 13%. A weaker dollar "starts to set into motion a few different dynamics," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management. .DXY 1Y mountain ICE U.S. Dollar Index over past year A weaker dollar typically lifts large-cap stocks that are more likely to have an international footprint. What's more, emerging market companies more easily pay back dollar-denominated debt when the greenback is weaker.

Persons: it's, Yung, Yu Ma, Shannon Saccocia, Riley Financial's Art Hogan, Hogan, Neuberger Berman's Saccocia, Saccocia, We've Organizations: ICE, BMO Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Vanguard FTSE Emerging

☆ SEC sues Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao for U.S. securities violations
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Rohan Goswami | In Rohangoswamicnbc | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Binance's ultimate compliance, in 2019, was largely a public show, the SEC complaint continues. The SEC alleged that Binance and Zhao violated "critical" provisions of federal security laws, including self-dealing and market manipulation, through Merit Peak Limited and Sigma Chain, both of which Zhao controlled and owned. Merit Peak, a British Virgin Islands-based company, was one of the "earliest market makers" on Binance's U.S. platform, the SEC alleged. "We will issue a response once we see the complaint," Zhao said on Twitter. The defendants showed a "blatant disregard" of federal law, the SEC alleged.

Persons: Changpeng Zhao, Zhao, Binance, Binance.US Organizations: Securities, Exchange, Binance, SEC, CNBC, Limited, Sigma Chain, Merit, Binance's U.S, Twitter, Media Locations: European, The U.S, USA, U.S, VPNs, Binance.com, British Virgin Islands, Binance's

☆ Morning Bid: Crowded bonds unnerved
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

This has some wondering if the recent dash for cash and top-rated bonds has become a bit crowded and how much more tightening central banks have to do. As we move into the weeds of the first-quarter U.S. earnings season, it's been a mixed bag so far. That clearly unnerved UK government bonds - where 10 year yields jumped 10bps - but it also jarred sovereign bonds around the world. Elsewhere, further signs of healing were evident in the global bank funding market. Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T) sold $1 billion of additional tier-1 debt, the first major global bank to sell the risky securities since similar bonds issued by Credit Suisse were wiped out last month.

☆ The Chips Act Becomes Industrial Social Policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Government subsidies are never free, and now we are learning the price U.S. semiconductor firms and others will pay for signing on to President Biden’s industrial policy. They will become the indentured servants of progressive social policy. Democrats last year snookered Republicans into passing their $280 billion Chips Act, which includes $39 billion in direct financial aid for chip makers and a 25% investment tax credit. Republicans hoped this would satisfy West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin , but after Chips passed he quickly flipped and endorsed the Inflation Reduction Act.

☆ Stocks shrug off rates risk as U.S. consumers spend
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Equities - with the Nasdaq (.IXIC) up 15% so far this year - are clinging to the positives, while in interest rate markets investors are quickly ditching hopes for cuts later in 2023. Two-year Treasury yields , which also track short-term interest rate expectations, hit their highest since November at 4.703% overnight. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%. Elsewhere the repricing of the interest rates outlook is putting an end to a couple months of selling of the dollar in currency markets. The U.S. dollar index is eying a third weekly gain in a row - the longest streak since September, when the index was galloping towards a 20-year high.

"It's judge shopping on steroids," said Sarah Lipton-Lubet, executive director of the progressive legal advocacy group Take Back the Court. The Biden administration has called the lawsuit "unprecedented" and urged Kacsmaryk to not deprive women of a long-approved safe and effective drug. At least eight have led to rulings blocking Biden policies, with several more pending. The chief judges of Texas federal courts have the authority to reallocate cases to other judges, but have largely not done so, he said. Absent a change, litigants have every right to take advantage of that structure to seek a favorable judge, he said.

☆ It’s the wrong time for Trumponomics
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Former U.S. President Donald Trump tried to juice U.S. economic growth by enacting massive tax cuts and championing lower interest rates. As he sets his sights again on the White House, the country is turning its back on Trumponomics. The U.S. Federal Reserve has been jacking up interest rates in hopes of weakening demand and easing the climb in prices. Former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss proposed tax cuts for Britain's top earners and homebuyers in a mini-budget revealed in September, posing the policy as a way to spur growth. Surging inflation prompted the Fed to start raising interest rates in March to cool demand and slow price growth.

☆ Bank of America Business Advantage Customized Cash Rewards credit card review: Earn a $300 bonus and customize your own 3% cash back category for no annual fee
▼ + stars: | 2022-08-24 | by ( Tessa Campbell | Personal Finance Reviews Fellow | Read More | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +30 min

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