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☆ China's trade slump narrows as stabilisation signs emerge
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Joe Cash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

“The trade data is marginally better, but I don’t think we should be reading too much into that: trade is still contracting,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. “There is a bit of a sign here of stabilisation, but I think there’s still a long way to go,” he added. “Looking ahead, whether China’s trade growth has already hit the bottom will hinge on several factors, the most important of which is obviously domestic demand.”Governments around the world are nervous about China’s economic slowdown with many exporting nations highly dependent on the country’s market for growth. However, trade with Japan dropped sharply, with outbound shipments from China to its neighbour down 20% in August year-on-year, while imports worsened by 17%. China posted a trade surplus of $68.36 billion in August, compared with a forecast $73.80 billion and a July figure of $80.6 billion.

Persons: Aly, ”, Frederic Neumann, Zhou Hao, it’s, Nie Wen Organizations: REUTERS, HSBC, Guotai, “, Australian, Hwabao Trust Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, China, Asia, Beijing, United States, Southeast Asia, Australia, Japan, Tokyo, Brazil

Nomura analysts were equally downbeat on China's economic outlook. Most economists see downside risk to Chinese growth but they don't expect a recession. It was the slowest growth since December 2022, and shows just how much of a challenge authorities face as they try to make consumption the key driver of future economic growth. MORE STIMULUSAsian stocks stalled at one-month lows, the yuan hit a 9-month nadir while the dollar held broadly firm after the weak Chinese data and latest policy easing measures. But we do need to lower our expectations for China's growth."

Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Nomura, Nie Wen, Robert Carnell, Liangping Gao, Albee Zhang, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Capital Economics, Retail, Hwabao Trust, Investment, Reuters, ING, NBS, Nomura, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, Asia, Pacific

☆ S&P cuts China GDP forecast as calls for stimulus intensify
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING, June 26 (Reuters) - S&P Global cut its forecast for economic growth in China this year, underscoring the uneven nature of the country's post-reopening recovery that is spurring more calls for further stimulus. S&P now expects China to log GDP growth of 5.2% in 2023, down from an earlier estimate of 5.5%. Forecasts for China GDP growth this year range between 4.4% and 6.2%. Last week, China cut its key lending benchmarks, the first such reductions in 10 months. Further highlighting pessimism over the economy, China and Hong Kong stocks slumped on Monday after disappointing domestic tourism figures for last week's three-day Dragon Boat Festival, while the yuan also weakened against the dollar.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Ning, Nie Wen, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: People's Bank of China, Times, Communist, Hwabao Trust, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong

☆ Cheap 'like cabbage' apartments in some Chinese cities draw buyers, and caution
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Liangping Gao | Marius Zaharia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Real estate agents said low-cost apartments in smaller Chinese cities such as Huainan and Rushan in the east, and Gejiu in the southwest, are also being bought, largely by people living outside those locations. The deals come at a time the picture for China’s property market is getting darker. For buyers with the means to get back into the market, the rock-bottom prices of second-hand apartments in the smaller cities have been hard to resist. ‘BUYERS ARE NOT LOCALS’Real estate agents said buyers in the small cities are mostly from out of town. “The fact that there are so many people buying low-cost flats in smaller cities reflects caution,” said Hwabao Trust economist Nie Wen.

Persons: Hu Yongwei, Thomas Peter, Hu, “, Zhao, Liu Yong, Gejiu, ”, Nie Wen Organizations: Reuters, REUTERS, Beijing, Hwabao Locations: BEIJING, HONG KONG, Beijing, Hebi, Zhengzhou, Henan province, China, Huainan, Rushan, Anjuke, Chongqing, COVID

"I was previously considered wealthy in the area," said Liu, who also owns some commercial property in the northeastern city of Liaoyuan. In play now in China, where around 70% of household wealth is in property, this phenomenon is weighing on the post-pandemic recovery of household consumption, which Chinese policymakers have vowed to make a more prominent driver of economic growth. Capital Economics estimates net household wealth declined 4.3% overall last year, due to falling house and stock prices, the first decline since at least 2001. Indeed, deposits rose a further 9.9 trillion yuan in the first quarter of this year. ($1 = 6.8376 Chinese yuan renminbi)Additional reporting by Shuyan Wang; Editing by Marius Zaharia and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

In poorer areas, which are bleeding people and private business to urban centres, the task of providing jobs falls more squarely on local governments at a time they are struggling to raise revenue through income tax and state land sales. However, "budgetary and debt pressures are more acute for these provinces, so increasing expenditure comes with additional fiscal risks," Yuan noted. The local governments adding the most jobs in relative terms are also among the most indebted. The local governments of Gansu, Yunnan and Guangxi did not respond to a request for comment and Reuters could not establish exactly why the governments are ramping up hiring and how it will impact their finances. Moody's Yuan said local governments including Gansu have faced increased refinancing pressure to meet their debt obligations.

☆ China's Lunar New Year travel to boost economy after COVID crunch
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

While many analysts say a return to economic normality will be gradual as the impact of COVID weakens, some see the Lunar New Year as a welcome early consumption boost. But with so many people on the move, health experts fear a deepening of the COVID outbreak, leaving the elderly in rural villages particularly vulnerable. Reuters reported on Tuesday that doctors in both public and private hospitals were being actively discouraged from attributing deaths to COVID. State media reported that some 390,000 passengers were expected to travel from Shanghai train stations on Tuesday alone for what is known as the Spring Festival holiday - seen as the world's largest annual mass migration before COVID. As travellers moved through stations in Shanghai, China's largest city, some expressed optimism despite the risks.

☆ China's Lunar New Year travel offers spark of economic rebound from COVID crunch
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While many analysts say a return to economic normality will be gradual as the impact of COVID weakens, some see the Lunar New Year as a welcome early consumption boost. But even as workers move out, health experts fear a broadening and deepening of its COVID outbreak, leaving the elderly in rural villages particularly vulnerable. The WHO earlier welcomed Saturday's announcement after last week warning that China was heavily under-reporting deaths from the virus. "This is especially important during periods of surges when the health system is severely constrained," the statement said on Monday. As travellers moved through stations in Shanghai, China's largest city, some expressed optimism despite the risks.

Some economists have lowered growth forecasts for early next year for the world's second-largest economy, continuing the grim growth numbers this year that were among the worst of the past half-century. "Compared with other developed countries, medical resources in China are somewhat insufficient," said Nie Wen, a Shanghai-based economist at Hwabao Trust, who has cut his China growth forecast for the first quarter to 3.5%-4% from 5% previously. INFLATION SURGEWith China likely facing waves of COVID infections after the relaxations, the benefits of reopening are expected to arrive with a significant delay. "Given the accelerated reopening timeline, we believe growth may stay subpar near term," Morgan Stanley said after the announcement of the latest easing measures. Lurking among the prospects for China's reopening, however, is a potential surge in inflation, which could hit the global economy as well as China itself.

DEBT STRESSTreasury bond quotas could be increased, so that some of them could be transferred to local governments to ease their fiscal stress, said Luo Zhiheng, chief macroeconomic analyst at Yuekai Securities. Combined with some maturing debts of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) - investment companies that build infrastructure projects - this year and the next will be most stressful for local governments, he said. According to financial media outlet Yicai, local governments' revenue from fines and confiscations jumped 10.4% in January-July year-on-year. The fiscal stress is cutting into some households' income, a red flag for consumption and broader growth. As there is no way out, they have had to ask the local government fiscal department for money."

☆ China Q3 growth seen bouncing 3.4%, but 2022 set for worst performance in decades
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Growth is expected to pick up to 3.8% in the fourth quarter, bringing the 2022 pace to 3.2%, far below the official target of around 5.5%. Investors will look for policy signals from a historic congress of the ruling Communist Party due to start on Sunday. The expected 2022 growth would be lower than 4.0% analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll in July and 5.0% in April's forecast. The government is due to release third-quarter GDP data, along with Sept. activity data, on October 18 at 0200 GMT. Economic growth is forecast to quicken to 5.0% in 2023.

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