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☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes shares 3 charts revealing striking similarities between today's market and the most extreme bubbles — and warns of 50-70% downside for the
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

"In contrast, current valuation extremes imply potential downside risk for the S&P 500 on the order of 50-70% over the completion of this cycle." JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4,200, while more extreme forecasts include Jeremy Grantham's estimate in the low 3,000s. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.

Persons: —, Jonathan Golub, Count John Hussman, Hussman, Hussman's, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Jeremy Grantham's Organizations: Service, UBS, Business, Hussman Investment Trust, New York Stock Exchange, Investor Intelligence

☆ An overload of warning signals mark the 'last straw' that could send the S&P 500 plunging 70%, famed permabear says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A high concentration of warning signals suggest a major market correction ahead, John Hussman said. AdvertisementA growing tally of ringing market alarms suggest the S&P 500 has at last reached its speculative peak, permabear John Hussman wrote on Monday. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up significantly over the period.

Persons: John Hussman, —, Hussman Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment, Dow

☆ 'This is where you start bear markets from': A notorious bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stock-market conditions resemble a major peak more than any time in the last 100 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.

Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, —, it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish

☆ Stocks are primed to tumble into a bear market as bullish investors have driven equities to 1929 extremes, famed fund manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market looks poised to fall from its extreme heights, legendary investor John Hussman said. Hussman said the stock market is mirroring the extremes leading up the 1929 crash. The S&P 500 has broken a series of record highs this year, and has regained momentum in recent days after a lackluster month in April. AdvertisementHussman's firm is expecting the S&P 500 to underperform Treasury bonds by 9.3% a year for the next 12 years, based on his firm's internal metrics. Just 39% of investors said they were bullish on stocks over the next 6 months, according to the AAII's latest Investor Sentiment Survey.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, he's, — Organizations: Service, Investment Trust, Investor

☆ A 32-year market vet warns the S&P 500 is set to fall 50%-70% in the years ahead with valuations at historic highs — and says that an imminently weakening labor market will be the catalyst for the cra
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.

Persons: —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's

☆ A notorious stock-market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 declines warns that conditions are 'consistent with the risk of an abrupt air-pocket, panic, or crash' — and the S&P will fall 50%-70%
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Hussman FundsThese levels indicate the S&P 500 is likely to return around -5% annualized over the next 12 years, according to Hussman's math. AdvertisementBy the time the current market cycle bottoms out, the S&P 500 could well have fallen by 50%-70%, Hussman said. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 33% over the past year.

Persons: —, John Hussman's, Hussman, he's, we've, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, There's, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Gary Shilling Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Exchange, Federal Locations: Miami

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns current market conditions are worse than in 99.9% of history — typically meaning stocks are ripe for a 10%-30% sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-10 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Read previewThe S&P 500 surpassed 5,000 for the first time on Friday, riding a wave of investor optimism about the health of the US economy. It's represented by the red line in the chart below, while the S&P 500 is shown in blue. Here's a chart from a regression analysis by Bank of America showing the impact that valuations have on long-term stock market returns. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 23% over the past year.

Persons: —, John Hussman, Hussman, It's, Tom Lee, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Hussman, Bank of America

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stock valuations are near their most elevated levels ever — and lays out why a 63% decline in the S&P 500 would be consistent with 10
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Right now, it shows the S&P 500 at levels higher than during the dot-com bubble. According to Hussman's model, the S&P 500 will underperform Treasurys by about 7.5% over the next 12 years, the lowest projection since the 2000 and 1929 bubbles. Actual S&P 500 performance tends to follow Hussman's projections closely. Here's the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500, which averages valuations over the prior 10 years. Much of those gains are thanks to the so-called "Magnificent 7" stocks, the S&P 500's biggest seven stocks by market cap.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Here's, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Treasury, Federal, LPL Financial Locations: it's

☆ 'Buckle up': A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stocks remain near their highest valuation levels in history — and that the market is ripe for steep and abrupt losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-21 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

High valuations, despite their little influence on short-term returns, often mean devastating outcomes for investors over a longer period. There's also what he calls "poor market internals," which he tracks through a proprietary measure that monitors the breadth of individual stock performance. Hussman FundsThe combination of poor internals and high valuations are why Hussman says losses could come out of nowhere, and quickly. "Historically, the combination of extreme valuations and unfavorable market action has created a 'trap door' situation for the market," Hussman said. Rather, the steepest market losses have generally emerged from that combination of market conditions, and these losses tend to emerge abruptly, without additional warning."

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Irving Fisher catastrophically, Here's, There's, they've, Buckle, Hussman bullish Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust

☆ 'Far deeper market losses will emerge': A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns the S&P 500's losses are only just beginning as stock valuations remain near their 1929 and 2
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-09 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

John Hussman says stocks are due for substantial losses amid high valuations. Here's Hussman's favorite measure of valuation: total market cap of non-financial-sector stocks-to-total revenues of those stocks. Hussman FundsAnother valuation measure Hussman likes is the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. Hussman Funds"Current market conditions create what we continue to view as a 'trap door' situation for the equity market. Another reason Hussman's outlook is so dire is that stock valuations remain high relative to where risk-free Treasury yields are.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Here's, Warren Buffett Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Hussman, Fed, Treasury, America, Bank of America, Reserve

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks face the same 3 negative conditions they did in November 2021— and warns the 25% drop that followed will prove to be a 'small o
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman warns that valuations, investor sentiment, and market technicals are poor right now. A recipe for stock market disasterOn valuations, Hussman likes to compare total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of non-financial stocks. His criteria for technical overextension include an S&P 500 14-day relative strength index above 70, at least a 4% rate-of-change for the S&P 500 in the last 14-day period, and the S&P 500 at least 4.5% above its 50-day average. The chart below shows advances and declines for the S&P 500 in the 40 trading sessions after these criteria have been met. Piper SandlerOutside of technicals, however, macroeconomic fundamentals will likely be a main driver of market returns in the months ahead.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, John Hussman —, —, there's, he's, they've, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler Organizations: Street, Reserve Locations: technicals

☆ The extreme bubble in stocks 'will end in tears' with the S&P 500 plunging 64%, a long-time bear who called the 2000, 2008 crashes has warned. Here are his 6 best quotes.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

John Hussman, an asset-bubble expert, forecasts the ongoing rally in US stocks will "end in tears." The S&P 500 risks a 64% collapse given extreme valuations and "unfavourable market internals," he said. "There is a particular 'setup" that we've historically found to be associated with abrupt 'air pockets' and 'free falls' in the S&P 500. It combines hostile conditions in all three features most central to our investment disciple: rich valuations, unfavourable market internals, and extreme overextension." "At present, the valuation extremes we observe imply that a -64% loss in the S&P 500 would be required to restore run-of-the-mill long term prospective returns.

Persons: John Hussman, I've Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Locations: Wall, Silicon, macrotrends.net

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks are set to suffer 'profound' losses as valuations remain at historic extremes — and dismisses the current rally as a 'narrow an
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

It also doesn't offer a fair characterization of the entire S&P 500's performance. Hussman's preferred valuation measure is total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of non-financial stocks. According to Bank of America, 80% of the S&P 500's returns over a 10-year period can be attributed to valuations. The red line in the chart below shows the gauge, while the blue is the S&P 500's price action. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, hasn't, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, David Rosenberg, Solita, 18.5x, it's, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, UBS, University of Pennsylvania, Housing

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns the S&P 500's 17% surge since October is a bear market rally — and that stocks are ripe for a decline of up to 60%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since October 2022, the S&P 500 is up 17% following a 25% decline as the Fed embarked on its rate-hiking cycle. The median S&P 500 price target for the end of the year is 4,000. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 1.1% over the past year.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says a 60% decline in the S&P 500 is likely as high valuations and weak investor sentiment create a 'trap door' scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The chart below shows how far the S&P 500 would have to fall to provide either a 10% return or 2% premium over Treasury bonds. He sees the S&P 500 finishing 2023 at around 3,150, he told YouTube channel Wealthion. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 0.8% over the past year.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns that the stock sell-off is 'not over by a long shot' — and that the S&P 500 could sink by more than 50%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hussman called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Sure, the S&P 500 is down 17% from its peak on the first day of trading in 2022, 15 months ago. But the numbers don't lie, says Hussman, who called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Wilson sees the S&P 500 bottoming between 3,000-3,300, making him one of the more bearish strategists on the Street. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks still have 60% further downside as sky-high valuations remain more inflated than every other crash over the last 100 years exce
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

John Hussman says stocks remain more overvalued than nearly every bubble over the last century. This week, Mike Wilson and Albert Edwards also said stocks remain highly overvalued. Right now, that risk-reward ratio for stocks is abysmal, says John Hussman, the president of the Hussman Investment Trust who called the 2000 and 2008 market crashes. Hussman FundsTo illustrate how out-of-whack stocks are relative to Treasury rates, Hussman compiled the below chart. This would mean around 60% further downside from levels seen earlier this week, when Hussman published the commentary.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns that stocks will face losses rivaling 1929, 2000, and 2007 as high valuations and poor investor sentiment create a "trap door" scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

There are two major driving forces of stock-market returns, according to John Hussman: valuations and investor sentiment. "Put simply, we estimate that the S&P 500 faces the same prospect of full-cycle loss and return-free risk as it did in 1929, 2000, and 2007. The S&P 500, in its current form since 1957, fell more than 46% from 2000-2002 and more than 52% from 2007-2009. Hussman FundsAs for investors sentiment — or what Hussman calls "market internals" — he uses a proprietary measure of the uniformity of investor behavior. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009.

☆ A 30-year investing vet who called the latest bear market warns that stocks have another 41% downside with US economy already in recession and the Fed continuing to ratchet up rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks the US economy is already in recession. With growth slowing and the Fed still tightening, Wolfenbarger thinks stocks are due for big losses. The S&P 500 is already down around 20% year-to-date. All of that spells further trouble ahead for stocks, Wolfenbarger said, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has already fallen about 20% in 2022. In a recessionary scenario, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,150, though that is not his base case.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns stocks are still as overvalued as they were in 1929 and 2000, setting up the S&P 500 for a 'far deeper retreat' and a decade of negative ret
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman expects a "far deeper retreat" in stocks, despite the S&P 500's 20% loss in 2022. The 20% loss the S&P 500 has suffered this year has most investors searching for a bottom. "Though recent market losses have removed the most extreme speculative froth, our most reliable valuation measures remain near their 1929 and 2000 extremes." He also said he expects -6% returns over the next 10-12 years for the S&P 500. The chart below shows actual market returns (vertical axis) over 12 years when considering market capitalization of non-financial stock-to-gross value added valuations.

☆ Stock Market Crash: Expert Warns 58% Drop Still to Come
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The S&P 500 is down 16% on the year as the Fed tightens policy to fight inflation. The S&P 500 fell as much as 25% this year as the Federal Reserve pulled its support for the US economy. To return to normal valuation levels, the market would have to fall 58% further from where it sits currently, he said. The most bearish strategists among major Wall Street institutions see the S&P 500 falling to around the 3,000, about -25% assuming a recession plays out. He's more bearish than Wilson in the short term, however, with a three-month price target of 3,600 for the S&P 500.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks would still need to fall more than 50% just to reach valuation norms — and warns of an 'avalanche of earnings disappointments'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman says stocks would have to fall more than 50% further to hit valuation norms. Stocks have staged an impressive rally in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 up 9% since October 12. For Hussman, valuations are still too high, even though the benchmark index has fallen as much as 25% this year. Still, valuations are nowhere near levels that we associate with satisfactory long-term market returns, so I suspect that more shoes will drop." The earnings disappointments Hussman sees will be caused by restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve that weigh on demand.

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