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☆ 3 reasons China's economy is poised to break out of its long slump, according to Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-09 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

But the country could see growth pick up this fall, Goldman Sachs' chief China economist says. Hui Shan pointed to fiscal easing, strong export momentum, and subsiding weather-related risks. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementAfter a long downturn, China's economy may be poised for a turnaround, Goldman Sachs says. Goldman's chief China economist Hui Shan pointed to fiscal easing, strong export momentum, and subsiding weather-related risks as reasons to believe the country's fortunes could soon change.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, —, Shan Organizations: Service, Business Locations: China

Chinese President Xi Jinping and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing, China, in 2017. "So this is not going to be a sustainable driver of growth for China." China's exports to the U.S. rose by a modest 1.5% in the first half of the year. Citi forecasts 5.0% growth in real GDP growth for China this year. UBS forecasts 4.9% growth for China's economy this year.

Persons: Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Artyom Ivanov, Goldman Sachs, Trump, JD Vance, Hui Shan, CNBC's, Janet Yellen, Vance, Biden, Mike Pence wouldn't, MAGA, Lin Jian, Goldman's Shan, Shan, Tao Wang Organizations: TASS, Getty, BEIJING, U.S, European, Citi, Fox News, Trump, Capitol, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, CNBC, UBS Investment Bank, UBS Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, European Union, Asia, Ukraine

☆ Trump presidency tariffs could be a 'major downside growth risk' for China, says Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTrump presidency tariffs could be a 'major downside growth risk' for China, says Goldman SachsHui Shan, chief China economist of Goldman Sachs, says the implications for the macroeconomy are significant if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election and imposes a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.

Persons: Goldman Sachs Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump Organizations: Email, U.S Locations: China

☆ Possible that the People's Bank of China deemphasizes MLF: Goldman Sachs economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPossible that the People's Bank of China deemphasizes MLF: Goldman Sachs economistHui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the Chinese central bank's decision to keep a key policy interest rate unchanged and the outlook for its monetary policy.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan Organizations: People's Bank of China Locations: China

☆ China's sweeping measures to prop up the property sector will need time to show results
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A real estate construction site in Wanxiang City, Huai 'an City, East China's Jiangsu province, May 17, 2024. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's sweeping moves on Friday to increase support for real estate will take time to show results, analysts said. Despite the news, S&P is still sticking to its base case from earlier in the month that China's property market is likely still "searching for a bottom," Edward Chan, director, corporate ratings, said during the firm's webinar on Monday. But he pointed out that for real estate to see significant stabilization, homebuyers' demand and confidence will need to improve after a market downturn of nearly three years. "We believe Beijing is headed in the right direction with regard to ending the epic housing crisis," Nomura's Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Monday.

Persons: Huai, Edward Chan, Ting, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Chief China Economist Hui Shan, Ting Lu, P's Chan Organizations: Future Publishing, Getty, BEIJING, Chief China Economist, China Locations: Wanxiang City, City, East China's Jiangsu, Hong Kong, Beijing, Ting Lu, China

☆ China's economy reveals pockets of softness. Here's what to watch ahead of Friday's data
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release data on retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment for April on Friday. Some of the weakness speaks to genuine sluggish demand in China at present. The firm expects this week's economic data releases to show a "softening in economic momentum," affirming its forecasts for the central bank to cut rates by the end of June. "Some of the weakness speaks to genuine sluggish demand in China at present," said Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs' China chief economist, in a note Sunday. Businesses' loan demand fallsNew bank loans to businesses and government organizations dropped sharply in April from March, as did new loans to households, according to official data accessed through Wind Information.

Persons: Hui Shan Goldman Sachs, Louise Loo, Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, Goldman, RRR, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Visual China, Getty, BEIJING, National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Finance, Oxford Economics, People's Bank of, Information, Clocktower, CNBC Locations: Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province, China, —, Beijing, People's Bank of China

☆ Goldman Sachs explains why China's growth rate is falling but more new jobs are expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs explains why China's growth rate is falling but more new jobs are expectedHui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, says that can be attributed to its economy being more service-oriented and labor-intensive.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan Locations: China

☆ Goldman Sachs: China's fiscal policy support is moving in 'the right direction'
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs: China's fiscal policy support is moving in 'the right direction'Hui Shan of Goldman Sachs discusses expectations for China's new 'special bond' issuance and the challenges facing the economy in 2024.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan

☆ China property market: There's a 'self-fulfilling negative feedback loop,' says Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina property market: There's a 'self-fulfilling negative feedback loop,' says Goldman SachsHui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, says government policy should provide a "clear roadmap."

Persons: Goldman Sachs Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs Organizations: China Locations: China

☆ China is facing more challenges in restructuring its economy: Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is facing more challenges in restructuring its economy: Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs' Hui Shan says China's economy needs a new model to avoid a negative loop of lack of confidence leading to lack of investment which will lead to lack of growth.

Persons: Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan Organizations: China

☆ Goldman Sachs cuts China growth forecast as property slowdown bites
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SINGAPORE, June 19 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (GS.N) analysts have cut forecasts for China's economic growth, citing persistently weak confidence and the cloud over the property market as stronger-than-expected headwinds. The U.S. investment bank lowered its full-year real gross domestic product growth forecast for the world's second biggest economy from 6% to 5.4%, according to a note published late on Sunday. It also lowered its 2024 growth forecast from 4.6% to 4.5%. The cut follows similar moves by global peers, though still leaves Goldman among the most optimistic, as data shows China's post-pandemic recovery faltering. "We judge that growth headwinds are likely persistent while policymakers are constrained by economic and political considerations in delivering meaningful stimulus."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Hui Shan, Tom Westbrook, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, U.S, China

☆ Goldman joins Wall Street banks in cutting China's growth outlook as post-Covid bounce fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

(Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images) Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesGoldman Sachs became the latest Wall Street bank to downgrade its growth forecast for China, as the world's second-largest economy stutters and loses momentum after its coronavirus reopening. "With the reopening boost quickly fading, medium-term challenges such as demographics, the multi-year property downturn, local government implicit debt problems, and geopolitical tensions may start to become more important in China's growth outlook," they said. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconUBS also sees continued weakness in China's economy ahead, particularly focusing on the second quarter of the year. Wang noted that uncertainty in China's property sector remains a central risk to its forecast and could bring its growth outlook even lower. "Risks to our forecast is slightly biased towards the downside, mainly from uncertainties in property market and path of property policy support ahead, as well as weaker external demand," she said.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Chief China Economist Hui Shan, Wang Tao, Wang Organizations: Getty, Nurphoto, Chief China Economist, UBS, Bank of America, JPMorgan, U.S, People's Bank of, Federal, UBS Investment Bank's Locations: Nanjing, East China's Jiangsu Province, China, People's Bank of China, saar

☆ China opens a new era of 'proactive easing' as the economic recovery turns sour
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

SHANGHAI, CHINA - NOVEMBER 04, 2022: Buildings at Lujiazui Financial District are illuminated to celebrate the opening ceremony of the 5th China International Import Expo (CIIE) on November 4, 2022 in Shanghai, China. Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty ImagesStock Chart Icon Stock chart iconPointing to soft economic figures from China, including credit data, Citi economists said "stimulus seems to be underway with the weak readings." Barclays economists, writing in a Tuesday note titled "Entering a rate cut cycle," predict China will deliver a cut for every quarter until early 2024. China's central bank controls the benchmark one-year lending and deposit rates, which affect the borrowing costs for banks, businesses and individuals across the country. Mizuho Bank's Head of Economics and Strategy for Asia Vishnu Varathan argued that the latest actions from China's central bank "does not cut it."

Persons: 50bp, Jian Chang, Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, Asia Vishnu Varathan Organizations: Lujiazui Financial, 5th China, Visual China, Getty, Citi, Barclays, Bank's, Economics Locations: SHANGHAI, CHINA, Shanghai, China, Asia

☆ We expect a 'modest' appreciation of the Chinese yuan after 3 months, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe expect a 'modest' appreciation of the Chinese yuan after 3 months, Goldman Sachs saysHui Shan of the investment bank says it still has a constructive view on China's growth.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan

☆ China's disappointing rebound could bring in more stimulus, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesChina's much-vaunted economic rebound after its emergence from strict zero-Covid lockdown measures has yet to fully materialize, prompting some economists to speculate that further fiscal stimulus or monetary policy easing could be coming down the pipeline. Data from China's Bureau of Statistics shows that 6 million of the 96 million 16 to 24-year-olds in the urban labor force are currently unemployed. watch nowIn a research note Monday, Capital Economics assessed that, despite losing some momentum, China's economic recovery was still progressing at the start of the second quarter, with scope for further service sector-led improvement. But we do not expect policy rate cut or major fiscal stimulus, barring a precipitous fall in exports in the coming months." Any consensus among economists as to the trajectory of fiscal and monetary policy seems to be unraveling in light of the tenuous recovery.

☆ China's economy grew 4.5% in the first quarter, the fastest pace in a year
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The economy grew 3% in 2022, less than Beijing's official target of around 5.5% set in March last year. For 2023, the government last month set a modest growth target of "around 5%." On pace to exceed targetGoldman Sachs said China's first-quarter growth of 4.5% supports the firm's full-year outlook for the economy to grow 6%. "Today's data are in line with our full-year bullish view for China growth," Goldman Sachs' chief China economist Hui Shan told CNBC. We keep the full-year GDP forecast at 5% as external demand should be a concern for the year," Pang wrote.

☆ The 'bar is not that high' for Chinese consumption to show strong growth this year: Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe 'bar is not that high' for Chinese consumption to show strong growth this year: Goldman SachsHui Shan of the investment bank says it expects household consumption growth to be 8.5% this year.

☆ China reopening earlier than expected could hit supply chains in the short term, but boost growth in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesMainland China's reopening came sooner than expected for investors, and Goldman Sachs warns it will lead to short-term strains in the workforce and supply chains. Positive outlook for GDP, Chinese yuanDespite shorter-term concerns for China's reopening, economists have a rosy outlook for China's growth in the long run. "Improved growth expectations in 2023 might outweigh unfavorable factors such as deterioration in goods and services trade balances," the Goldman Sachs note said. International travel to resumeThe economists at Goldman Sachs said the latest measures will likely benefit the surrounding region's growth as travel normalizes. Travelers with luggage's inside Terminal 1 at the Hong Kong International Airport on December 20, 2022 in Hong Kong, China.

☆ China's economy looks different than it was going into the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

China's exports started to fall year-on-year in October — for the first time since May 2020, according to Wind Information. Net exports had supported China's GDP growth over the last several years, contributing as much as 1.7 percentage points in 2021, the analysts said. But China's exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have picked up, surpassing those to the U.S. and EU on a monthly basis in November, according to customs data. They expect ASEAN's GDP growth to rebound in 2023, while the U.S. and EU spend part of next year in recession. Jin pointed out that China's car exports, especially of electric cars and related parts, helped support overall exports this year.

☆ China's reopening from Covid won't be a straight path forward
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Hector Retamal | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — As mainland China relaxes many of its stringent Covid controls, analysts point out the country is far from a quick return to a pre-pandemic situation. Mainland China's daily Covid infections, mostly asymptomatic, surged to a record high above 40,000 in late November. Looking ahead, it's pretty clear that China's Covid policy is about to cross a turning point, said Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL. That means there may be a surge in Covid infections, and China's policy will never go back, Pang said. Goldman Sachs analysts expect China's reopening — defined as a shift away from lockdowns — to come in the second quarter of 2023, according to a separate report on Wednesday.

☆ China's stocks, yuan tumble as COVID protests rattle nerves
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A U.S. crackdown on Chinese tech giants citing national security concerns also weighed on shares of technology firms. Nevertheless, the social unrest and rising coronavirus cases had fuelled expectations of an earlier end to China's zero-COVID policy, putting a floor under stocks and boosting tourism and consumer shares. "The market does not like uncertainties that are difficult to price and the China protests clearly fall into this category. While state media has not reported the protests, photos and videos of the protests circulated on social media. "The demonstrations ... mean the current COVID policy mix is no longer politically sustainable.

☆ Goldman Sachs discusses China's property sector and zero-Covid policy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBig question mark on whether China's 16-point property rescue plan will create demand: Goldman SachsHui Shan of the investment bank discusses the challenges that China's zero-Covid policy poses to the economy, particularly its property sector.

☆ Comments from market watchers on the COVID-19 protests in China
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

ALVIN TAN, ASIA FX STRATEGIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"The scale of the protests will necessarily elicit a response from Beijing. KEN CHEUNG, CHIEF ASIA FX STRATEGIST, MIZUHO, HONG KONG:"The China economy is heading to the direction of reopening but the road to the reopening could be a bumpy one. "Overall, the China Q4 growth outlook should remain grim given the COVID resurgence and the related mobility tightening. GARY NG, ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, HONG KONG:"The market does not like uncertainties that are difficult to price and the China protests clearly fall into this category. MARTIN PETCH, VICE PRESIDENT, MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE:"We expect the protests ... to dissipate relatively quickly and without resulting in serious political violence.

☆ Market watchers' comments on COVID-19 protests in China
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Here's what market watchers are saying about the unrest:ALLAN VON MEHREN, CHIEF ANALYST, DANSKE BANK, COPENHAGEN:"Normally protests in China are aimed at local governments but a crowd in Shanghai directed their protest against the Communist Party and Xi Jinping." "The protests come as the recent tweaks in the zero-Covid policy seem to have backfired as they led to rising cases across the country that subsequently triggered new restrictions being implemented. MARK HAEFELE, GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CIO, UBS, ZURICH:"We do not expect economic or market headwinds in China to abate significantly over the coming months. KEN CHEUNG, CHIEF ASIA FX STRATEGIST, MIZUHO, HONG KONG:"The China economy is heading to the direction of reopening but the road to the reopening could be a bumpy one. GARY NG, ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, HONG KONG:"The market does not like uncertainties that are difficult to price and the China protests clearly fall into this category.

☆ Apple has seen $114 billion in market value erased as investors grow concerned about building iPhone shortages due to China Covid protests
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Apple is facing growing iPhone shortages due to protests in China over the government's zero-COVID lockdown policies. The company has seen $114 billion in market value since erased last week on concerns of weak holiday sales. Last week, violent protests erupted at the Foxconn iPhone factory due to the stringent lockdown policies. "The zero China COVID policy has been an absolute gut punch to Apple's supply chain with the Foxconn protests in Zhengzhou a black eye for both Apple and Foxconn. "Now is the painful waiting game to see what ramped production looks like over the next week for Apple to ease some iPhone shortages that are building globally."

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