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"Inflation rates are moving along pretty much like I thought," Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a hawkish and influential voice at the central bank, told the American Enterprise Institute think tank on Tuesday. If the decline in inflation continues "for several more months ... three months, four months, five months ... we could start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower," he said. Additional Fed rate increases remain a possibility if upcoming data includes an unexpected resurgence of price pressures, he said. But even Bowman, who like Waller is among the Fed's most hawkish officials, stopped short of outright calling for a further increase in the policy rate. New inflation data will be released on Thursday, and policymakers will also have a fresh monthly jobs report and other data in hand before they gather next month.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Bond, Waller's, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Waller, Austan Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, American Enterprise Institute, Fed, Spelman College, Utah Bankers Association, Chicago Fed, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta, Salt Lake City

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell answers a question at a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. The fight to restore price stability "has a long way to go," the Fed chair said. Going forward, "it may be that a greater share of the progress in reducing inflation will have to come from tight monetary policy restraining the growth of aggregate demand," Powell said. "Supply shocks that have a persistent effect on potential output could call for restrictive policy to better align aggregate demand with the suppressed level of aggregate supply," he said. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Powell, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Rights, . Federal, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."

Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley

“I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy,” Jefferson said in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics. The remarks by Jefferson and earlier by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, one of the Fed system's more influential voices on financial markets, caused investors to undercut the likelihood of further Fed rate increases. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," said Logan, who has been among the more hawkish officials in supporting the need for continued rate increases. Since the Fed last raised its policy interest rate a quarter of a percentage point in July, long-term bond yields have risen a full percentage point, a fast rate of change for a massive market. A rise in the so-called “term premium," if it proves persistent, could put an enduring drag on the economy and perhaps give the Fed less reason to raise its own policy rate.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, ” Jefferson, Jefferson, Lorie Logan, FedWatch, Gregory Daco, Logan, policymaker, Chris Varvares, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Nick Zieminski Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, Treasury, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, New York Fed, Fed, P, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jefferson, Israel

"The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like," he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently. "The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?" "The conflict poses a risk of higher oil prices, and risks to both inflation and the growth outlook," said Karim Basta, chief economist at III Capital Management, leaving the Fed to sort out whether higher prices or slower growth is the greater concern. To the extent the Israeli war with Hamas heightens concerns about the global economy it could reverse that trend if capital rushes towards the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, as often happens at times of potential crisis. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ronen, It’s, Agustin Carstens, Carl Tannenbaum, Karim Basta, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Federal Reserve, Northern Trust, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, III Capital Management, Fed, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Sderot, Israel, Ukraine, U.S, Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, Suez

"The economy is a global economy, right? Yet Fed officials remain puzzled, and somewhat concerned, over conflicting signals in the incoming data. But gross domestic product is still expanding at a pace well above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%. Difficulties in China, meanwhile, may drag down global growth the longer they fester. Its slowdown after a short-lived growth burst earlier this year could pinch Germany's exports and slow Europe's growth, for instance.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann Saphir, JACKSON, Jackson, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Loretta Mester, Mester, Lagarde, Biden, Nathan Sheets, Powell, Gourinchas, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Monetary Fund, Cleveland Fed, Reuters, Citigroup, Consumer, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Brazil, Chile, China, Ukraine

"We will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data," Powell said in a keynote address to the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. "It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so. The Fed has raised rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022, and inflation by the Fed's preferred gauge has moved down to 3.3% from its peak of 7% last summer. Although the decline was a "welcome development," Powell said, inflation "remains too high." Fed policymakers will also meet in November and December.

Persons: JACKSON, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, Elizabeth Frantz, “ Powell, Michael Arone, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Lewis Krauskopf, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve, Committee, REUTERS, Fed, State Street Global Advisors, Cleveland Fed, Chicago Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, U.S, Washington , U.S

WASHINGTON, June 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday defended the likely need for further interest rate increases despite the possible impact on jobs. "It is working families who suffer most directly and quickly from inflation," Powell responded, adding that Fed officials at this point feel "it will be appropriate to raise rates again this year, and perhaps twice, assuming the economy performs as expected." But Powell also elaborated on the Fed's approach in coming months as policymakers debate how much further rates need to rise. "We moved very, very quickly when we had to move quickly," with rates moving higher by 75 basis point per meeting at one point, Powell said. But now "we're at least close to where we think our destination is...and it only makes common sense to move...at a careful pace," Powell said, with rates held steady at the June meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Sherrod Brown, ” Brown, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal, U.S . Congress, Ohio Democratic, Banking Committee, Thomson Locations: Ohio

Inflation has "started to abate" but the Fed will remain focused on returning it to the 2% target, Fed governor and vice chair nominee Philip Jefferson said in testimony prepared for his confirmation hearing on Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee. "The economy faces multiple challenges, including inflation, banking-sector stress, and geopolitical instability. "Inflation has started to abate, and I remain focused on returning it to our 2% target." As a group, Fed policymakers last week signaled two more interest-rate hikes are likely by the end of the year. The Senate Banking committee on Tuesday also released prepared remarks from Fed Board nominee Adriana Kugler, who said returning inflation to the central bank's 2% target is key to setting a strong foundation for the U.S. economy.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Jefferson, Lisa Cook, ” Cook, Cook, Adriana Kugler, " Kugler, Kugler, Bob Menendez, Menendez, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Dan Burns, Ann Saphir, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Reserve, Committee, Federal, World Bank, Fed, of Governors, Senate, Derby, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S, New York, Berkeley , California

The rate hike "skip" has now become jargon for an emerging compromise between concerns inflation is not yet controlled with fears the economy may slow sharply as banks pull back on credit. "I don't really see a compelling reason to pause," Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester said in an interview published Wednesday in the Financial Times. Jefferson acknowledged inflation remains "too high" and that "by some measures progress has been decelerating recently." While Jefferson does not expect a recession, he noted that there are reasons to be careful after 15 months in which the policy rate was raised by 5 percentage points. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao, Nick Zieminski and Daniel WallisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Jefferson, Jerome, Powell, Krishna Guha, Patrick Harker, Harker, Loretta Mester, Michelle Bowman, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao, Nick Zieminski, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S . Senate, Philadelphia Fed, Cleveland Fed, Financial Times, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington

Top of mind: inflation and the impact of a credit tightening Fed officials feel is still evolving in the wake of both higher interest rates and a financial sector rattled by the recent failure of three U.S. banks. "The case of avoiding a recession is in my view more likely than that of having a recession," Powell said. The shift in the Fed's approach was reflected in U.S. interest rate futures, which showed broad expectations for no hikes at either of the central bank's next two policy meetings. U.S. stocks initially held onto gains after the release of the Fed statement, but fell later in the afternoon and closed lower. "With the word 'determining' in place of 'anticipating,' (it) is essentially telling the markets that the Fed is now on pause."

The unanimous decision lifted the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range, the tenth consecutive increase since March 2022. Because of that, Powell said it's too soon to say the rate hike cycle is over. Economic growth remains modest, but "recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation," the Fed said. The shift was reflected in U.S. interest rate futures prices, which showed broad expectations for no hikes at either of the Fed's next two meetings. "With the word 'determining' in place of 'anticipating' is essentially telling the markets that the Fed is now on pause."

The retail sales data provided at least a hint that a pandemic-era spending boom may be nearing an end, though some economists argued that the historically low unemployment rate and rising wages make a sharp drop in consumption unlikely. In separate comments, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd seen little evidence yet that the economy was under stress, little progress on inflation, and no reason to call off further rate increases. The current inflation rate is more than twice that target, and progress on getting it to move in that direction has been slow. The data showed households expected inflation to accelerate significantly in the year ahead, reversing months of progress towards them viewing inflation as a receding phenomenon. There won't be much more topline economic data before the Fed's May 2-3 meeting.

The Fed's policy-setting committee raised interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point in a unanimous decision on Wednesday, lifting its benchmark overnight interest rate to the 4.75%-5.00% range. Fed officials still feel that "some additional policy firming" may be needed, and they penciled in one more quarter-of-a-percentage-point rate increase by the end of the year. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note , which is highly sensitive to Fed rate expectations, was down more than 21 basis points in the session. Financial markets went a step further, betting that the Fed won't raise rates any further from here and will be reducing them by this summer. "The Fed has been spooked by Silicon Valley Bank and other banking turmoil.

"It could be that progress has stalled, or it is possible that the numbers released last month were a blip," he said. The current policy rate is set in a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. Bostic also said he was ready to raise rates higher if upcoming data did not show inflation "clearly" heading back towards the central bank's 2% target from its January level of about 5.4%. But he also felt the impact of Fed rate increases so far may only be getting started, a reason to be careful in deciding on further rate hikes lest the central bank overstep. Fed rate increases "should bite through the spring ...

Kashkari, a voter on Fed rate policy this year, said he had not made a final call yet on a new projection for the target federal funds rate. But "at this point...I lean towards continuing to raise further," beyond the 5.4% level that he previously thought would be adequate to lower inflation. Fed officials will submit new projections at a meeting in three weeks, and analysts and investors expect the median rate seen by officials for the end of 2023 will move perhaps a quarter point higher than the 5.1% anticipated as of December. The federal funds rate is currently set in a range from 4.5% to 4.75% after a rapid set of rate increases last year lifted it from a near zero level. The jump in inflation in January, however, has not prompted a universal call to respond.

The rate hikes imposed by the Fed since March have now totaled 4.5 percentage points, with the policy rate now in a range between 4.50% and 4.75%, the highest since 2007. It is in part that resilience that has the central bank poised for "ongoing increases" in its policy interest rate. Stocks, modestly lower ahead of the Fed rate decision, turned sharply higher as Powell spoke. "If you were hoping for clear signs of an upcoming pause in interest rate hikes, you were left wanting. INFLATION TARGET REAFFIRMEDThe Fed statement indicated that any future rate increases would be in quarter-percentage-point increments, dropping a reference to the "pace" of future increases and instead referring to the "extent" of rate changes.

Stocks, modestly lower ahead of the Fed rate decision, turned sharply higher as Powell spoke, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) index climbing about 1% on the session. At the same time, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note , the maturity most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, dropped abruptly to the day's low, last trading down about 8 basis points at around 4.12%. The Federal Reserve retained the phrase 'ongoing increases' in their statement, leaving their options open depending on what upcoming economic data says," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. The statement did indicate that any future rate increases would be in quarter-percentage-point increments, dropping a reference to the "pace" of future increases and instead referring to the "extent" of rate changes. But those, it said, would take into account how the policy moves so far had impacted the economy, language that linked further rate increases to the evolution of upcoming economic data.

[1/5] U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addresses reporters after the Fed raised its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, during a news conference at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, U.S., February 1, 2023. Stocks, modestly lower ahead of the Fed rate decision, were little moved by the release of the policy statement, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) index down about 0.3% on the session. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note , the maturity most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, rose to the day's high, last trading up 2 basis points at about 4.22%. "If you were hoping for clear signs of an upcoming pause in interest rate hikes, you were left wanting. The statement did indicate that any future rate increases would be in quarter-percentage-point increments, dropping a reference to the "pace" of future increases and instead referring to the "extent" of rate changes.

Waller said he remained "cautious" about the path of inflation and expected it would take "continued tightening of monetary policy" to return the rate of price increases to the Fed's 2% target. That process seems to be underway, Waller said, all while the unemployment rate remains, at least so far, at a half-century low of 3.5%. The Fed used a series of aggressive-three-quarter point rate increases last year to push the target federal funds rate from near zero to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%. At the Fed's last meeting in December, however, policymakers eased the pace and approved just a half-point increase. While supporting the use of quarter point hikes, Waller did not indicate in his prepared remarks how much further he feels rates need to rise from here.

[1/3] Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard speaks at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, in Chicago, Illinois, U.S., January 19, 2023. In addition, she said the full impact of last year's aggressive Fed interest rate increases has yet to be felt. "It remains possible that a continued moderation in aggregate demand could facilitate continued easing in the labor market and reduction in inflation without a significant loss of employment," Brainard said. Even as the Fed parses the progress it has made on inflation, she said it would "stay the course." "Even with the recent moderation, inflation remains high, and policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for some time to make sure inflation returns to 2 percent on a sustained basis," Brainard said.

Nearly 165 million people were either in jobs or looking for them last month, a record high that showed a long-hoped-for improvement in labor supply. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe jobs report is "the embodiment of the soft landing narrative - this idea that can you have a strong labor market with slowing wage growth," said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors. Ideally, she said, that should allow the Fed to slow and soon pause its interest rate hikes. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsTraders took the report as evidence the Fed's work is near to being done. Still, she said, "inflation remains far too high, despite some encouraging signs lately, and is therefore of great concern."

He described the slow rate of economic growth penciled in by Fed officials next year as still "modest." Only two of 19 Fed officials see the benchmark overnight interest rate staying below 5% next year, a sign of a still broad consensus to lean against inflation. In the U.S. Treasury market, which plays a key role in the transmission of Fed policy decisions into the real economy, yields were little changed to slightly lower. Powell said the speed of coming rate rises is less critical now than earlier in the year when the central bank was "front-loading" rate hikes to catch up with accelerating prices. "Our focus right now is really on moving our policy stance to one that is restrictive enough to ensure a return of inflation to our 2% goal over time, it's not on rate cuts," Powell said.

[1/3] Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the announcement that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by half a percentage point, at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, U.S., December 14, 2022. The Fed's policy rate, which began the year at the near-zero level, is now in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, the highest since late 2007. In the U.S. Treasury market, which plays a key role in the transmission of Fed policy decisions into the real economy, yields were little changed. "It's not as important how fast we go," Powell said, noting the bigger question facing policymakers is where the endpoint of the Fed rate hikes is and how long it stays at that level. Any debate over easing rates would only happen when officials are confident inflation is moving down, he said.

While the Fed chief did not indicate his estimated "terminal rate," Powell said it is likely to be "somewhat higher" than the 4.6% indicated by policymakers in their September projections. The Fed's response to the fastest outbreak of U.S. inflation in 40 years has been a similarly abrupt increase in interest rates. Powell said Fed estimates of inflation in October showed its preferred measure still rising at about triple the central bank's 2% target. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note , the maturity most sensitive to Fed rate expectations, dropped to about 4.47% from 4.52%. Bottlenecks in goods production are easing and goods price inflation appears to be easing as well, and this, too, must continue."

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