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☆ The macroeconomic picture is relatively challenging in China, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe macroeconomic picture is relatively challenging in China, economist saysHao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International, says Chinese policymakers will prevent an economic slump and try to deliver on its growth target of 5% this year.

Persons: Hao Zhou Organizations: Guotai Locations: China

☆ China surprises with rate cuts as economy grapples with 'confidence crisis'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Str | Afp | Getty ImagesChina's central bank unexpectedly cut rates on Tuesday, as policymakers continued to ramp up support for its struggling economy. It was the second rate cut in three months. China is facing a "confidence crisis" as Beijing's policy delay is being perceived as "inaction" to spur growth, according to an economist. "In a crisis such as this … you can't really call it a consumption crisis or investment crisis. In addition to the rate cut on Tuesday, the central bank also injected 204 billion yuan through seven-day reverse repos, cutting borrowing costs by 10 basis points to 1.80% from 1.90%.

Persons: we've, Louise Loo, CNBC's, Loo, they've, 15bps, Goldman Sachs, Hao Zhou Organizations: Afp, Getty, People's Bank of China, Oxford Economics, Guotai Locations: China

☆ China's economic recovery has lost speed: Guotai Junan International
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's post-Covid economic recovery has been losing speed since April, economist saysHao Zhou of Guotai Junan International says there will probably be "relatively good numbers" for now, but there's concern about China's economic momentum.

☆ Tourism is roaring back in China. But the $6 trillion consumer market is digging itself out of a deep slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

He's hopeful business improves this year – and allows Rêver to recoup the roughly 35% in revenue it lost last year. Within a retail sales slump of 0.2% to 43.97 trillion yuan ($6.28 trillion), catering sales dropped by a steeper 6.3%. He expects 7% year-on-year growth in retail sales. Hainan's recovery plansHainan, a tropical province aiming to be a duty free shopping destination, announced a goal for 10% growth in retail sales this year. That's after its retail sales fell by 9.2% last year.

On a quarterly basis, GDP stalled, coming in at 0.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9% in July-September. For 2022, GDP expanded 3.0%, badly missing the official target of "around 5.5%" and braking sharply from 8.4% growth in 2021. Other indicators for December such as retail sales and factory output, also released along with GDP data, beat expectations but were still weak. At an agenda-setting meeting in December, top leaders pledged to focus on stabilising the economy in 2023 and step up policy support to ensure key targets are hit. China is likely to aim for economic growth of at least 5% in 2023 to keep a lid on unemployment, policy sources said.

Industrial profits fell 3.6% in January-November from a year earlier to 7.7 trillion yuan ($1.11 trillion), according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday. Industrial profits could fall further in December with many cities facing a surge in COVID infections, said Hao Zhou, chief economist at GTJAI. For January-November, profits at private-sector firms shrank 7.9%, a slight improvement from the 8.1% fall in the first 10 months. China's economic growth was just 3% in the first three quarters of this year and is expected to stay around that rate for the full year, one of its worst years in almost half a century. Industrial profit data covers large firms with annual revenues above 20 million yuan from their main operations.

☆ China's economy looks different than it was going into the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

China's exports started to fall year-on-year in October — for the first time since May 2020, according to Wind Information. Net exports had supported China's GDP growth over the last several years, contributing as much as 1.7 percentage points in 2021, the analysts said. But China's exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have picked up, surpassing those to the U.S. and EU on a monthly basis in November, according to customs data. They expect ASEAN's GDP growth to rebound in 2023, while the U.S. and EU spend part of next year in recession. Jin pointed out that China's car exports, especially of electric cars and related parts, helped support overall exports this year.

It marked the slowest growth since May when Shanghai was under lockdown, partly due to disruptions in key manufacturing hubs Guangzhou and Zhengzhou. Retail sales fell 5.9% amid broad-based weakness in the services sector, also the biggest contraction since May. "The weak activity data suggest that the policy needs to be eased further to revive the growth momentum," said Hao Zhou, chief economist at GTJAI. "The increased size of the MLF rollover this morning is in line with the overall easing policy tones. That would hit businesses and consumers, while a weakening global economy hurts Chinese exports.

☆ China regulators order more financing support for property firms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The move, first reported by Bloomberg, comes as cash-strapped property developers struggle to tap sources of funding to finish projects and pay suppliers. Chinese regulators are telling financial institutions to allow real estate companies to defer repayment of some loans, such as property development and trust loans, the sources said. China's property sector, once a pillar of growth, has slowed sharply this year as the government sought to restrict excessive borrowing by developers. Goldman Sachs said in a note that the basic principles of the property measures are not new. Chinese regulators expanded a key financing support programme designed for private firms, including real estate companies, to about 250 billion yuan ($35.18 billion) this week.

On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 3.9% versus a revised drop of 2.7% in April-June and an expected 3.5% rise. 1/9 Workers work at a construction site, following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Shanghai, China, October 14, 2022. A Reuters poll forecast China's growth to slow to 3.2% in 2022, far below the official target of around 5.5%, marking one of the worst performances in almost half a century. Retail sales grew 2.5%, missing forecasts for a 3.3% increase and easing from August's 5.4% pace, underlining still fragile domestic demand. "On the policy front, the overall policy will remain supportive," said Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.

Workers work at a construction site, following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Shanghai, China, October 14, 2022. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 3.9% in the third quarter, versus a revised drop of 2.7% in April-June and an expected 3.5% rise. The data was originally scheduled for release on Oct. 18 but was delayed amid the key Communist Party Congress last week. New bank lending in China nearly doubled in September from the previous month and far exceeded expectations, helped by central bank efforts to revive the economy. "On the policy front, the overall policy will remain supportive," said Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.

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