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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJobs data increases the likelihood that the Fed will cut twice this year, PNC's Gus FaucherGus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, joins 'Power Lunch' to offer his jobs report reaction and expected Fed outlook.
Persons: PNC's Gus Faucher Gus Faucher Organizations: PNC
CNN —At a time when Americans and the Federal Reserve are clamoring for clear-cut data about the state of the economy, Friday’s jobs report was much more opaque than everyone had hoped. Unemployment roseThe unemployment rate rose to 4% from 3.9%. The rise in unemployment can be traced to the findings of the household survey (one of two surveys that feed into the monthly jobs report). Compared to the establishment survey that showed the robust 272,000 net gain in jobs, the household survey faltered. That’s in the service sector, everything from personal care services, dry cleaning, cleaning and home maintenance and vehicle maintenance, she said.
Persons: Dean Baker, ” Diane Swonk, Gus Faucher, “ Jobs, , ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, ” Pollak, ” Swonk, That’s, ” Andrew Challenger, hirings, Wells, Sarah House, Mike Pugliese, it’s Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, KPMG, PNC, “ Employers, Challenger
And this Memorial Day weekend could be a case in point: Travelers are expected to come out in record-setting droves. Three-plus years of high inflation have taken their toll on Americans’ budgets and, especially, their mindsets. Inflation has slowed during the past couple of years, pulling back significantly from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Americans, especially lower-income consumers, have pulled back spending at retailers as goods inflation outpaces wage growth. Pandemic-era savings have been spent while sticky inflation and high inflation rates eat into household budgets.
Persons: ” Gus Faucher, Price, ” Faucher, Taylor, it’s, , Ed Bastian, Swift, Delta, Taylor Swift’s, That’s, Kathleen Oberg, , Peter Kern Organizations: New, New York CNN, Transportation Security, TSA, PNC Financial Services, CNN, Consumer, Mickey Consumer, Commerce Department, Disney, Delta Air, ” United Airlines, Mastercard, Institute, Marriott International, Marriott, Expedia Group Locations: New York, United States, Hong Kong, Europe
If Costco’s hot dog deal kept pace with inflation, it would be three times as expensive today — nearly $4.50. ‘If you raise the effing hot dog, I will kill you’Costco’s hot dog defied inflation from the very start. Costco’s hot dog offering was born in the company’s early days. Realizing the importance of the low-priced hot dog, the chain brought production in-house and switched to its own Kirkland Signature brand. Jim Sinegal, Costco’s co-founder, once told the company’s former CEO Craig Jelinek, “If you raise the effing hot dog, I will kill you.
Persons: , Scott Mushkin, Richard Galanti, Gus Faucher, Kirkland, Jim Sinegal, Costco’s, Craig Jelinek, , ” Sinegal Organizations: New, New York CNN, Costco, Bureau of Labor Statistics, R5, Federal Reserve, PNC Financial Services, Seattle Times Locations: New York, Portland , Oregon
Unsurprisingly, several flashing indicators suggest that investors are feeling good about the market:• CNN’s Fear & Greed Index: The indicator, which measures seven barometers of market sentiment including the VIX, Wall Street’s most well-known measure of expected stock volatility, is in “greed” territory. Market sentiment is often seen as a contrarian indicator. That means that when the herd is optimistic, money managers take it as a sign that stocks will fall, and vice versa. A closely watched gauge of US wholesale inflation rose at its fastest pace in months, according to new data released Thursday. In February, car sales climbed 1.8%, purchases of electronics and appliances increased 1.5% and sales at restaurants rose 0.4%.
Persons: • Charles Schwab, Yardeni, , Alicia Wallace, Price, Gus Faucher, Read, Bryan Mena Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial Services, Retail, Commerce Department, Gas Locations: New York
Core services costs excluding housing services — "supercore" inflation, as it has become known — remain elevated but at least the pace of increase, at 0.5%, has eased. "The 'last mile' problem for the central bank is the inflation in service prices, which is partly attributed to the tight labor market in sectors such as healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and construction. "This type of inflation, often termed 'cost-push inflation,' may not react straightforwardly to changes in interest rates." "Wage growth was significantly slower, the labor market wasn't as tight," PNC's Faucher said. "It wasn't that long ago, but it was a different economy than it is now, with some of those [current] post-pandemic effects of the tight housing market and the tight labor market."
Persons: Gus Faucher, Dow Jones, Sung Won Sohn, PNC's Faucher, Faucher, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, That's Organizations: Federal, PNC Financial Services, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Fed, JPMorgan, Monday
Key takeaways from the latest jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
“The economy remains strong, held up by a robust labor market,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist with FwdBonds, in a note Friday. Still, Friday’s jobs report also showed that the whopping gains initially recorded for January and December were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs. January’s job gains now sit at an estimated 229,000 (down from the blowout 353,000); and December’s job growth at 290,000 (down from 333,000). In February, that included construction (up 23,000 jobs); transportation and warehousing (up 19,700 jobs); and retail (up 18,700 jobs). Friday’s jobs report showed that wage growth is indeed slowing.
Persons: , Christopher Rupkey, FwdBonds, , ” Robert Frick, , ” Diane Swonk, Swonk, February’s, ” Frick, Julissa Carielo, ” Swonk, Gus Faucher, Lydia Boussour, EY, Boussour, Janet Yellen, CNN’s Kate Bolduan, they’re, ” Yellen, Price, CNN’s Bryan Mena Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, KPMG US, Health, Baby Boomers, Transportation Security Administration, DreamOn, Inc, Boomers, Fed, Labor, Federal, PNC Financial Services, “ Fed Locations: New York, San Antonio , Texas, Texas
What to expect in Friday’s jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
New York CNN —Don’t be surprised if Friday’s jobs report shows that February’s employment gains were far below those reported for January. In fact, it would continue a history-making stretch of labor market expansion. Friday’s jobs report could very well provide a more reliable read on what’s actually happening in the labor market than the jobs reports of recent months’ past, Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told CNN. “And so, February might give us a better understanding of the underlying rate of job growth,” she said. What the other labor market data is showingOther economic data released this week reinforces the idea that the US labor market is cooling but remains on solid footing.
Persons: New York CNN — Don’t, Julia Pollak, autoworkers, what’s, hasn’t, Nixon, ” Ron Hetrick, Gus Faucher, stayers ”, Faucher, , ” Nela Richardson, outplacement, ” Andrew Challenger, Lydia Boussour, EY, Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial Services, BLS, Labor, Boomers, ADP, Challenger, , Labor Department Locations: New York, US
New York CNN —Even as unemployment remains historically low and recession fears fade, consumer credit scores are starting to buckle. Although FICO scores remain near record highs — and well above pre-pandemic levels — this marks the first drop in a decade. FICO said the one-point drop in credit scores in late 2023 was driven by an increase in Americans missing payments and also by rising debt levels. However, he said this one-point drop in credit scores is not necessarily a red flag. “The overall outlook for consumer credit quality, and consumer spending growth,” Faucher said, “is still very solid.”
Persons: FICO, FICO’s, Arkali, , , ” Arkali, Banks, , Gus Faucher, Faucher, it’s “, ” Faucher Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, New York Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, ’ Consumers, NY Fed, PNC Locations: New York
This confidence is echoed by other recent metrics, including a survey by Morgan Stanley showing that consumer sentiment hit a five-month high in January. Economists who spoke to CNBC Make It say it's likely the cumulative effect of wage growth, low unemployment and slowing inflation. "But with slowing inflation and strong wage growth, adjusted-for-inflation incomes are increasing, giving consumers more buying power," he says. Wages increased 5% in January 2024, a three-month moving average of nominal wage growth for individuals, as measured by the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker. Wage growth, slowing inflation and low unemployment are the main factors for improved optimism among Americans, Ernest says.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, what's, Robert Johnson, Here's, Gus Faucher, Johnson, Jonathan Ernest, Ernest Organizations: of Michigan, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, CNBC, Creighton University's Heider College of Business, PNC Financial Services Group, U.S . Department of, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Stock, Case Western Reserve University Locations: New, Atlanta
Solid economic economic growth combined with decelerating inflation feels like the perfect combination for the Federal Reserve to dial down its restrictive monetary policy. More broadly, though, the resilient nature of the economy brought the Fed closer to its goal of arresting inflation without crushing growth. On the balance between the threat of overheating growth and the positive developments on inflation, Bovino thinks the Fed will be more inclined to cast a wary eye on the growth side. "They have their work cut out for them." "They want to make absolutely sure inflation is killed, and they're not going to cut rates until that is the case."
Persons: Beth Ann Bovino, there's, Bovino, they'll, Bill Adams, Jerome, Powell, Gus Faucher, haven't, Dan North, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Commerce Department's, Economic, CME Group, Comerica Bank, Fed, PNC Financial Services, North America, Allianz Trade
A gauge the Federal Reserve uses for inflation rose slightly in November and edged closer to the central bank's goal. On a six-month basis, core PCE increased 1.9%, indicating that if current trends continue the Fed essentially has reached its goal. "The slowing in core inflation opens the door for fed funds rate cuts in 2024; the timing will depend on core PCE numbers over the next few months." Though policymakers watch both measures, they are more concerned with core prices as a longer-run inflation gauge. A 2.7% slide in energy prices and a 0.1% decrease in food helped hold back inflation for the month.
Persons: Dow Jones, Andrew Hunter, Gus Faucher Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Capital Economics, Markets, PNC Financial Services, Fed, PCE, Federal, CNBC PRO
Stephanie Keith | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesNovember's solid jobs report did not assure that the economy will come in for a soft landing, but it did help to clear the runway a little more. "Overall, the jobs market is doing its part to get us to a soft landing," said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at jobs rating site Glassdoor. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 3.7%, easing worries that it could trigger a historically dead-on signal known as the Sahm Rule, which coordinates increases of the unemployment rate by half a percentage point to recessions. "The recession versus soft landing debate sort of misses the necessary nuances of this unique cycle," Sonders said. "A best-case scenario is not so much a soft landing, because that ship has already sailed for [some] segments.
Persons: Stephanie Keith, Daniel Zhao, nonfarm, Gus Faucher, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Sonders, Sanders, Schwab Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Labor, PNC Financial Services, PNC, University of Michigan's Locations: New York, U.S
Minneapolis CNN —For several months now, the US labor market has been on a cooling trajectory, and Friday’s jobs report made that even more apparent. The US economy added 150,000 jobs last month, falling below expectations but still notching a solid month of employment growth, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. October’s job growth came in below September’s stronger-than expected but downwardly revised total of 297,000 jobs. Including the estimated 150,000 jobs added last month and the downward revisions to August and September that totaled 101,000 jobs, the United States is averaging 239,000 jobs gained per month so far this year. Where the jobs were — and weren’tBecause of the timing of the striking actions and how the BLS tracks such activity, October is the first jobs report that reflects the massive strike.
Persons: , Sung Won Sohn, Nancy Vanden Houten, Jerome Powell, Gus Faucher, Dante DeAntonio, ” DeAntonio, “ It’s, ” Ger Doyle, ManpowerGroup, Amy Glaser, we’ve, “ We’re Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, of Labor Statistics, SS Economics, Loyola Marymount University, United Auto Workers, Ford, General Motors, UAW, Big, Federal Reserve, Fed, Oxford Economics, BLS, PNC Financial Services, Government, Moody’s, , CNN, Locations: Minneapolis, United States, Southern California
PNC's Gus Faucher expects a mild recession in 2024
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPNC's Gus Faucher expects a mild recession in 2024Gus Faucher, PNC chief economist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss what to expect from tomorrow's Fed decision.
Persons: Gus Faucher Organizations: PNC
Minneapolis CNN —Ballpark attendance boomed this summer, Barbenheimer revived the box office and a Renaissance of live performances brought concerts into new Eras. However, it also could mean that holiday spending just might look a little different and skewed more toward experiences than it has done in past years. Respondents to KPMG’s 2023 holiday survey said they plan to spend 5% more this season, said Matt Kramer, KPMG’s consumer and retail national sector leader. “What stands out the most is this ‘leaning in’ to holiday travel and wanting to have those experiences with friends and family,” he said. A more comprehensive look at consumer spending will come at the tail end of the month when the Personal Consumption Expenditures data is released.
Persons: Barbenheimer, Everybody, , Keith Gentili, ” Taylor Swift, Allen J, , Ted Rossman, that’s, ’ ”, aren’t, Matt Kramer, Tamara Charm, Elijah Nouvelage, Patrick T, Fallon, Gus Faucher, Nathan Howard, Nancy Vanden Houten, , ” Rossman, Matt Schulz Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, New Hampshire, Los Angeles Times, Getty, Bankrate, McKinsey, Travelers, Hartsfield, Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Bloomberg, Commerce, Apple, PNC Financial Services, Shoppers, canaries, LendingTree Locations: Minneapolis, New, Inglewood , California, splurge, , Los Angeles, AFP, Georgetown, Washington, what’s, Oxford
Despite inflation dropping from a June 2022 peak of 9.1%, the central bank doesn't expect inflation to reach its target until at least 2026. Core inflation — the measure of prices excluding volatile food and gas prices — is considered by the Fed to be the best measure of where inflation is headed. In September, core inflation posted a second consecutive monthly gain of 0.3%, which is roughly half the rate of inflation during summer 2022. "It's a temporary setback," says Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services, noting that core inflation has slowed "substantially" in the past few months. At the same time, "it is going to be more difficult for the Fed to wring extra inflation out of the economy," he says.
Persons: it's, that's, That's, Gus Faucher Organizations: Fed, PNC Financial Services
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady Wednesday, but the central bankers will give an update on their economic outlook with the summary of economic projections, which includes one key chart that traders will have an eye on. The so-called "dot plot" that charts the projected move in the Fed funds rate and the press conference of Chair Powell will give investors a clue as to what happens in the November meeting and into 2024. "I think that they will keep that bias towards higher rates in there and indicate that they are willing to raise the funds rate further if the data start to show that either inflation is not slowing as they expect it to, or if the labor market remains too tight," said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group. Read more about the meeting here. — Jeff Cox, Jesse Pound
Persons: Powell, Gus Faucher, Read, — Jeff Cox, Jesse Pound Organizations: Federal Reserve, PNC Financial Services
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell's tone was hawkish, but the speech's content was not: PNC's Gus FaucherGus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, and Aditya Bhave, US senior economist at Bank of America, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the tone of Powell's comments, monetary policy going forward, and labor policy dynamics.
Persons: Gus Faucher Gus Faucher, Aditya Bhave Organizations: PNC, Bank of America
But markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report Friday morning. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the government’s jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Last July, for example, the US economy added 568,000 jobs — more than double the 250,000 that economists had expected. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady.
Persons: Minneapolis CNN — Fitch, , Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, ” Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Business, Conference Board, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, Labor Department, , PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States
Minneapolis CNN —Despite Tuesday’s credit rating downgrade amid concerns about the challenges facing the United States, markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report on Friday. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the monthly jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady. The broader economic scorecard for the United States makes the downgrade all the more “bizarre” and puzzling, noted top economists, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Persons: , Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States
Outside the COVID-19 pandemic, it was the biggest jump since 2010, reflecting a drop in household employment and a rise in the workforce. "However, the other areas of softness in this report suggests that the labor market is losing steam. The backfilling of these retirements and increased demand for services are some of the factors driving job growth. While not dismissing the household survey, economists said the establishment survey was the more reliable of the two. The fall in household employment combined with a rise of 130,000 in the labor force to boost the unemployment rate.
Persons: payrolls, Sal Guatieri, Nonfarm, Mike Blake, Gus Faucher, Conrad DeQuadros, DeQuadros, Daniel Zhao, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor Department, BMO Capital Markets, Fed, Reuters, Leisure, Treasury, REUTERS, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Financial, Writers Guild of America, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial, Brean, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Toronto, Oceanside , California, Pittsburgh , Pennsylvania, New York
Minneapolis CNN —High prices, rising interest rates and banking uncertainty be damned: The US labor market is still chugging right along. “The American labor market right now is simply unstoppable,” RSM economist Joseph Brusuelas wrote in a note Friday. “This is what a soft landing would look like, with job growth gradually slowing to a more sustainable pace,” Faucher added. The milestone comes just three years after the Covid-19 pandemic caused mass layoffs that pushed the Black unemployment rate as high as 16.8%. “Make no mistake, the Black [unemployment] rate is still too high,” Shierholz tweeted.
"That being said, given the fact the Fed has tightened as aggressively as they have, the economy is still very good." But recent days have shown the Fed has another problem on its hands besides inflation. watch nowBecause prices fall when rates go up, the Fed hikes have cut into the market value of those fixed income holdings. Rate hike expected"If you're waiting for inflation to go back to 2% and that's what's caused you to raise rates, you're making a mistake," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. Since the rate increases started, depositors have pulled $464 billion from banks, according to Fed data.
The jobs market has remained resilient despite growing economic headwinds from the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases. While labor market strength keeps the U.S. central policy on its monetary policy tightening path, it also suggests that a much anticipated recession is nowhere near. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it strips out week-to-week volatility, fell 2,500 to 189,250, the lowest level since last April. "But even so, the job market remains remarkably strong." "There is no sign of easing of labor market tightness here."
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