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☆ Markets 'complacent' about the risks of a Trump win, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Mike Segar | ReutersMarkets are "fairly complacent" about the risks of a second Donald Trump presidency, which could trigger a "tantrum" in long-duration bond markets, according to Guillermo Felices, principal and global investment strategist at PGIM. watch nowSome analysts are also looking ahead through a fiscal and geopolitical lens to November's U.S. presidential election and beyond. 'Fiscal risk' at a time of high deficit The crucial point, Felices acknowledged, is America's deteriorating fiscal position in recent decades. "The market is not really focusing too much on the potential upside risks to yields that are associated with this potential repricing of term premia. [Having] fiscal risks with the sort of deficit that the U.S. is running is a really, really important one that the market will have to come to terms with again."

Persons: Donald Trump, Mike Segar, Guillermo Felices, Felices, Trump, Fitch Organizations: U.S, Republican, New, Reuters, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal, Fed, CNBC, Trump, Bank of England Locations: New Hampshire, Rochester , New Hampshire, U.S

☆ Treasury yields fractionally higher ahead of key data releases
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was around 1.7 basis points higher at 4.1109% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up just over 1 basis point at 4.3284%. U.S. Treasury yields nudged slightly higher on Tuesday morning, as market participants await the release of key economic data points later in the week. Investors are trying to gauge when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates, which will be a key determinant of the trajectory for markets and the economy this year. Despite the uncertain rate outlook, risk-on sentiment remained robust on Monday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both notched all-time highs. Auctions will be held Tuesday for $46 billion of 52-week Treasury Bills and $60 billion of 2-year notes .

Persons: that's, it's, Guillermo Felices, CNBC's Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Investors, Federal Reserve, Commerce, Dow Jones Industrial, Global Investment, Treasury Bills

The yuan firmed by more than 0.5% in both the onshore and offshore markets as investors cheered comments at the closely watched Politburo meeting, though many were still seeking specific details on greater stimulus measures. The yuan traded offshore was last at 7.1444 per dollar and in the onshore market it was at 7.1454 per dollar. Also propping up the yuan were China's major state-owned banks selling U.S. dollars to buy yuan in both onshore and offshore spot markets on Tuesday, sources told Reuters. The positive sentiment from China lifted the Australian dollar, often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, which rose 0.4% to $0.6767. In Europe, the pound rose 0.22% to $1.2854, its first day of gains after seven straight sessions of losses, its longest such streak since March 2020.

Persons: Tommy Xie, Guillermo Felices, Ueda, Aninda Mitra, Rae Wee, Alun John, Shri Navaratnam, Lincoln, Christina Fincher Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, LONDON, China, Europe, Asia, Singapore, London

☆ Euro staggers as traders wary of hawkish European Central Bank, dollar gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The euro hit a two-week low on Tuesday as a worsening downturn in euro zone business muddied the bloc's rate outlook against a still-hawkish European Central Bank, or ECB, while the dollar rose ahead of this week's trio of major central bank meetings. The offshore yuan strengthened in early Asia trade, following comments from China's top leaders on Monday pledging to step up policy support for its flailing economy. Elsewhere, sterling fell 0.11% to $1.2811, while the U.S. dollar index steadied at 101.39. "We continue to expect a combination of monetary, fiscal, property and consumption support measures to be rolled out in the next few months." The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, gained 0.18% to $0.67515, while the kiwi rose 0.06% to $0.6209.

Persons: Rodrigo Catril, Guillermo Felices, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, National Australia Bank, NAB, Markets, U.S, PMI, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Australian Locations: Asia, Germany

☆ Euro staggers as traders wary of hawkish ECB; dollar gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, July 25 (Reuters) - The euro hit a two-week low on Tuesday as a worsening downturn in euro zone business muddied the bloc's rate outlook against a still-hawkish European Central Bank (ECB), while the dollar rose ahead of this week's trio of major central bank meetings. The offshore yuan strengthened in early Asia trade, following comments from China's top leaders on Monday pledging to step up policy support for its flailing economy. Elsewhere, sterling fell 0.11% to $1.2811, while the U.S. dollar index steadied at 101.39. "We continue to expect a combination of monetary, fiscal, property and consumption support measures to be rolled out in the next few months." The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, gained 0.18% to $0.67515, while the kiwi rose 0.06% to $0.6209.

Persons: Rodrigo Catril, Guillermo Felices, Goldman Sachs, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, National Australia Bank, NAB, U.S, PMI, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Australian, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Germany

☆ The U.S. economy will continue to slow this year, says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. economy will continue to slow this year, says strategistMarkets are coming to terms with central banks fighting the "persistent beast" of inflation, says Guillermo Felices, global investment strategist at PGIM.

Persons: Guillermo Felices

☆ Dollar retreats on jump in US jobless claims; eyes on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The two-year yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, steadied at 4.5210%. So that'll show up in payrolls numbers and jobless claims and these sorts of numbers," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. The Fed takes centre stage, with money markets leaning toward a pause, though have priced in a 25% chance that the U.S. central bank delivers a 25bp rate hike. "A slowing U.S. economy gives the Fed room to pause after 500bp of consecutive interest rate rises," said Guillermo Felices, global investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income. The Canadian dollar last bought C$1.3365, not far from its one-month high of C$1.3321 hit on Wednesday, while the Aussie similarly stood near a roughly one-month peak at $0.6711.

Persons: Jarrod Kerr, Guillermo Felices, Thursday's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Fed, Reuters, ECB, Canadian, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, Kiwibank

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