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A bitcoin halving — when the number of tokens rewarded to miners gets cut by 50% — happens reliably every four years. This time, however, supply will slow within months of an unprecedented demand shock, fueled by the approval of 11 spot bitcoin ETFs from asset management titans including BlackRock and Fidelity. AdvertisementAnd what's new this year is the wave of demand from bitcoin ETFs. Recent weeks have seen single-day inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs topping $1 billion, BitMex data shows. "We've never had both a supply shock and a demand shock at the same time."
Persons: , Sandy Kaul, Franklin Templeton's, bitcoin, it's, Greg Magadini, Magadini, Kaul, We've, Samir Kerbage, doesn't, Kerbage, Brian Rudick, Rudick Organizations: Service, BlackRock, Fidelity, Business
In the final quarter of the year, bitcoin is likely to see continued chop and although there's room for some upside, it may be limited. Despite this, it remains on pace for an 11% decline in the third quarter, historically a weaker quarter for the cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, holding a non-yielding asset like gold or bitcoin could become "less interesting" as rates go higher, Amberdata's Magadini said. There's a significant crowd on both sides, Cox said – "that's why bitcoin is up 60% in a year when the Fed has hiked interest rates so aggressively." The answer to that depends on interest rates, which will probably stay high."
Persons: Bitcoin, bitcoin, Greg Magadini, Rob Ginsberg, wouldn't, haven't, Callie Cox, That's, Amberdata's Magadini, Cox Organizations: SEC, , Wolfe Research, Fed
For some investors, however, its strong month isn't necessarily a green light to jump back into the crypto market. As of Tuesday, bitcoin is set to finish the month up 38.39%, which would make it its best month since October 2021 and its best January in 10 years, according to Coin Metrics. Ether , which led the crypto recovery last summer ahead of the merge, has risen 31% this month, coming off a 67.06% decline for 2022. However, "we're not so sure bitcoin is ready for another rocket ship rally just yet." "Thus far, the rise in BTC dominance looks reminiscent of April 2019, during which a BTC rally marked a crypto market bottom, much akin to rising BTC dominance lately."
The month of October, celebrated as "Uptober" by long-time crypto investors, has historically churned out some big gains for bitcoin. In seven of the last 10 years, bitcoin has posted a positive month. For four of the last six years, ether has ended the October trading month higher, according to Kaiko. Bitcoin was lower for the month by 0.3% as of Tuesday, while ether was down 1.4%, according to Coin Metrics. "Crypto market volatility has dipped to multi-year lows over the past month, with bitcoin's 20-day volatility now equal to that of the Nasdaq equity index," Kaiko head of research Clara Medalie told CNBC.
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