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☆ Europe could be drifting into a downturn as France and Germany fight economic and political woes
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Europe could be drifting in to a downturn as its biggest economies, Germany and France, fight political and economic woes at home. In Germany, composite purchasing manager's index (PMI data) measuring business activity in both sectors, came in at XXXX, down from XXX in August. In France, meanwhile, the composite PMI fell in September to an eight-month low of 47.4 from 53.1 in August. In the euro zone as a whole, the PMI data showed a decline from XXX last month to XXX, in September. Once Europe's poster-child for growth, Germany is now likened to the "sick man" of Europe by economists.

Persons: Pariser, —, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, J.P, Greg Fuzesi Organizations: Pariser Platz, PMI, Social Democratic Party, SPD Locations: Berlin, Germany, Europe, France, Brandenberg, Thuringia, Saxony, Morgan

A 25 basis point move, a slowdown after three straight 50 basis point hikes, appears the most likely outcome, although the bigger increase is still a possibility at what is almost certainly not the end of a historic tightening cycle. Markets see an 80% chance of a 25 basis point move while the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters were also betting on the smaller hike. Supporting a possible ECB downshift, the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and signalled it may pause further increases. At 3%, the ECB's deposit rate is already restricting economic activity, and underlying inflation has also stopped rising - at least for the time being. The ECB will announce its policy decision at 1215 GMT and Lagarde will hold a press conference at 1245 GMT.

☆ Sticky inflation fuels some of ECB's worst fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overall inflation eased a touch to 8.5% last month from 8.6% in January, data on Thursday showed. But nearly all the drop came from lower energy costs, while prices for most other items - including food, services and durable goods - surged again, confirming the worst fears of some ECB policymakers. A jump in underlying inflation - to 5.6% from 5.3% - reinforces already copious evidence that past price rises are filtering down into the broader economy, including via wages. "Core inflation and other measures of underlying inflation were likely to be stickier, with only limited evidence of a stabilisation so far," the ECB said in the accounts of the Feb. 1-2 meeting. "In particular, we upgrade (the rate hike view in) May from 25bp to 50bp, which takes our terminal rate forecast to 3.75% in June."

Despite relief measures, energy prices in February were 19.1% higher on the year, while food prices were 21.8% higher, it said. The first one was driven by energy prices and the second one by material inputs, which are not ebbing. While energy prices were keeping headline inflation high, wage growth will show its impact in core inflation, which will remain stubbornly high, Brzeski said. "Hence, a stepdown to a 25bp pace of hikes could be delayed, which would also push the terminal rate higher." "The interest rate step announced for March will not be the last," Nagel said in a speech.

☆ Unexpected inflation jump adds to ECB headache
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, jumped to its highest level since 2011 at 2.66% as traders ramped up bets that ECB rates will peak around 4% at year-end. Expectations for the peak in ECB rates have risen by over 40 basis points this month on fears that inflation will be more persistent than expected, particularly for core goods that exclude volatile fuel and food prices. Some investors even think there is a risk of the ECB raising rates by more than 50 basis points in March, despite its explicit guidance for the move. "The February data shows that French inflation has not reached its peak yet," ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier said. In Spain, core inflation also accelerated, adding to the ECB's worries that price growth is becoming persistent.

[1/2] Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. Economists polled by Reuters expected the ECB to raise the rate it pays on bank deposits to 2% on Thursday before pushing it to 2.5% by March and 2.75% by June. The ECB was also due to lay out plans to stop replacing maturing bonds in its 5 trillion-euro portfolio, reversing years of debt purchases that have turned the central bank into the biggest creditor of many euro zone governments. The ECB will announce its policy decisions at 1315 GMT, followed by a news conference of President Christine Lagarde at 1345 GMT. "The counterpart of slower rate hikes will be hawkish guidance on the terminal rate ... accompanied by earlier or faster 'passive' QT."

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